Market pulse: Bevalc dollars down, beer & wine weakest; spirits growth concentrated in RTDs; NA beer resilient; ABI steady share; Modelo cools.

Moderation & value: Only ~54% of adults drink; shoppers gravitate to sub-$20 and trimmed craft lineups.

RTDs surge: RTD share +420 bps YoY; Cutwater standout; core spirits soften on price/mix.

THC beverages: Target MN pilot launches; Ohio pauses intoxicating hemp; CA channels intoxicating hemp to cannabis by 2028.

Route-to-market: NBWA emphasizes distributor independence; SGWS–Provi settlement legitimizes digital ordering.

Capacity pinch: Manna/NorCal plant auctions tighten co-packing; plan longer lead times.

Wine stress: CA oversupply + Canada export collapse; producers cut price points and replant acreage.

TWE transition: Expect promo noise and sporadic outages as inventory resets.

People & deals: Duckhorn employee ownership; BrewDog cost actions; Westward sale; Napa asset trade.

Policy watch: CA DtC spirits pilot for 2026; AL bailment fee +$0.28/case; IL craft license; MI tightening THC rules.

Cognac supply: BNIC to remove 10–13.5k ha; potential for firmer US wholesale pricing.

US Market Intelligence | Oct 6–10, 2025

Beer demand stays soft (BPI 28) while value tiers and FMBs hold up. Whiskey faces mounting stress—Uncle Nearest enters receivership—though potential Scotch tariff relief could lift holidays. Prosecco leads sparkling growth. The TTB shutdown freezes approvals, and hemp rules tighten across key states. Cargo thefts rise, copacker closures hit production, and Gen X drives CPG spend.

Focus: protect margins, push RTDs and accessible sparkling, and prep for regulatory delays.

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In this week’s U.S. beverage industry audio brief, we cover the critical developments shaping the alcohol market as Q4 begins:

• Category Trends: Spirits and wine continue to cool, while beer marks its tenth straight monthly shipment decline. RTDs and select imports shine as bright spots.
• Consumer Signals: Costco’s comps slow, renewal rates dip, and University of Michigan sentiment plunges — reflecting a more cautious shopper.
• THC Beverages: Explosive growth in Minnesota and expanding portfolios from Untitled Art and Birdie meet mounting regulatory pushback in Illinois and Washington.
• Corporate Moves: Sazerac acquires Western Son Vodka, Buffalo Trace fills its nine-millionth barrel, Brown-Forman announces a $400M buyback, and Far Niente installs a new CEO.
• On-Premise & Retail: Hooters exits Chapter 11 with a new franchise model, casual dining pivots to $10 meal value strategies, while Costco trims holiday assortments.
• Supply Chain & Risk: California’s 2025 winegrape crush projected at 2.4M tons; Napa’s Pickett Fire threatens $65M in grapes; and a $1M whiskey theft highlights logistics vulnerabilities.
• Regulation & Compliance: TTB shutdown contingency plans could stall approvals, Maine cuts off DTC shipments, and a California bribery case underscores three-tier compliance stakes.
• Premium Spirits Reset: IWSR data shows U.S. status spirits down 5% in 2024; Cognac declines, Scotch steadies, and high-end agave shows signs of peaking.

From shifting consumer sentiment and supply chain risks to major acquisitions and regulatory hurdles, this week’s episode delivers the essential insights beverage leaders need to navigate a challenging but opportunity-filled landscape.

This week’s beverage alcohol industry update covers the shifting dynamics across beer, wine, spirits, and ready-to-drinks as U.S. consumers lean into value, convenience, and premium light options.

Key highlights from September 22–26, 2025:

• 📉 Category trends: Beer volumes slide despite NFL kickoff; spirits growth cools, while RTDs and cider outperform.
• 🥤 RTD momentum: Spirits-based cocktails +22%, wine-based +27%; Cutwater surges, while High Noon slows.
• 🍺 Beer shake-up: Michelob Ultra overtakes Modelo Especial as America’s top beer across retail and on-premise.
• 🥃 Spirits strategy: Tito’s acquires LALO Tequila, fueling the tequila arms race against Diageo and Brown Forman.
• 🍷 Wine pressure: Shipments and DTC sales drop despite premium price strength; bulk oversupply weighs on outlook.
• 🛒 Retail & distribution: Grocery traffic grows; C&S–SpartanNash merger reshapes shelf access for suppliers.
• 🏢 Corporate moves: Molson Coors names Rahul Goyal CEO; AB InBev partners with Netflix; Constellation trims guidance.
• ⚖️ Policy & regulation: Maryland cracks down on hemp-derived intoxicants; Kentucky liquor liability ruling raises risk; Tennessee hemp lawsuit challenges three-tier restrictions.
• 👥 Consumer behavior: Gallup shows U.S. alcohol participation at 54%—lowest in 90 years; Millennials drive on-premise volume, Gen Z favors flexible drinking.
• 💰 Capital & product moves: Diageo pauses U.S. whiskey production; Zachys’ Rothschild auction nets $11M; Trump Vodka revival teased.

This week’s recap highlights the push-pull between premiumization at the top and value-seeking at the base, showing how brands, distributors, and retailers are adapting to an evolving consumer landscape.

In this episode, we unpack the September 2025 state of the U.S. beverage market, where mixed signals are the new normal.

We'll explore the paradox of craft beer, which is struggling in its traditional grocery channel but finding surprising growth in convenience stores. Discover which brands like New Belgium's Voodoo Ranger and Sierra Nevada's Hazy Little Thing are thriving and how strategic price cuts are reversing trends for others. Meanwhile, we look at why large suppliers like Constellation Brands are facing a tougher outlook, with revised guidance pointing to softer sales and margin pressures from factors like aluminum tariffs.

Next, we uncork the challenges in the wine industry. While direct-to-consumer bottle prices are hitting record highs, shipment volumes are plummeting. We'll discuss California's bulk wine surplus and why, despite this, creating affordable new brands to attract value-conscious consumers remains a major hurdle.

Finally, we'll cover the big strategic moves in spirits. Hear about Tito’s first-ever acquisition of the fast-growing LALO Tequila and what it signals for the industry. We also touch on major distribution shifts and key executive appointments shaping the commercial landscape for the holiday season and beyond