Market pulse: Bevalc dollars down, beer & wine weakest; spirits growth concentrated in RTDs; NA beer resilient; ABI steady share; Modelo cools.

Moderation & value: Only ~54% of adults drink; shoppers gravitate to sub-$20 and trimmed craft lineups.

RTDs surge: RTD share +420 bps YoY; Cutwater standout; core spirits soften on price/mix.

THC beverages: Target MN pilot launches; Ohio pauses intoxicating hemp; CA channels intoxicating hemp to cannabis by 2028.

Route-to-market: NBWA emphasizes distributor independence; SGWS–Provi settlement legitimizes digital ordering.

Capacity pinch: Manna/NorCal plant auctions tighten co-packing; plan longer lead times.

Wine stress: CA oversupply + Canada export collapse; producers cut price points and replant acreage.

TWE transition: Expect promo noise and sporadic outages as inventory resets.

People & deals: Duckhorn employee ownership; BrewDog cost actions; Westward sale; Napa asset trade.

Policy watch: CA DtC spirits pilot for 2026; AL bailment fee +$0.28/case; IL craft license; MI tightening THC rules.

Cognac supply: BNIC to remove 10–13.5k ha; potential for firmer US wholesale pricing.

US Market Intelligence | Oct 6–10, 2025

Beer demand stays soft (BPI 28) while value tiers and FMBs hold up. Whiskey faces mounting stress—Uncle Nearest enters receivership—though potential Scotch tariff relief could lift holidays. Prosecco leads sparkling growth. The TTB shutdown freezes approvals, and hemp rules tighten across key states. Cargo thefts rise, copacker closures hit production, and Gen X drives CPG spend.

Focus: protect margins, push RTDs and accessible sparkling, and prep for regulatory delays.

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In this week’s U.S. beverage industry audio brief, we cover the critical developments shaping the alcohol market as Q4 begins:

• Category Trends: Spirits and wine continue to cool, while beer marks its tenth straight monthly shipment decline. RTDs and select imports shine as bright spots.
• Consumer Signals: Costco’s comps slow, renewal rates dip, and University of Michigan sentiment plunges — reflecting a more cautious shopper.
• THC Beverages: Explosive growth in Minnesota and expanding portfolios from Untitled Art and Birdie meet mounting regulatory pushback in Illinois and Washington.
• Corporate Moves: Sazerac acquires Western Son Vodka, Buffalo Trace fills its nine-millionth barrel, Brown-Forman announces a $400M buyback, and Far Niente installs a new CEO.
• On-Premise & Retail: Hooters exits Chapter 11 with a new franchise model, casual dining pivots to $10 meal value strategies, while Costco trims holiday assortments.
• Supply Chain & Risk: California’s 2025 winegrape crush projected at 2.4M tons; Napa’s Pickett Fire threatens $65M in grapes; and a $1M whiskey theft highlights logistics vulnerabilities.
• Regulation & Compliance: TTB shutdown contingency plans could stall approvals, Maine cuts off DTC shipments, and a California bribery case underscores three-tier compliance stakes.
• Premium Spirits Reset: IWSR data shows U.S. status spirits down 5% in 2024; Cognac declines, Scotch steadies, and high-end agave shows signs of peaking.

From shifting consumer sentiment and supply chain risks to major acquisitions and regulatory hurdles, this week’s episode delivers the essential insights beverage leaders need to navigate a challenging but opportunity-filled landscape.