Global Sugar Market Summary

• The global sugar market delivered mixed price signals this week as weather disruptions in Brazil supported prices, while large speculative positions, weak physical demand, and revised supply forecasts kept the broader outlook uncertain. The episode reviews the latest developments across the major sugar-producing and consuming regions.
• New York raw sugar futures posted three consecutive gains, while London white sugar declined, with both contracts recovering from recent lows. Brazil remained a key market driver as wet and cool weather slowed Center-South harvesting and reduced sugar output. A stronger Brazilian real and higher crude oil prices also encouraged greater cane allocation toward ethanol and reduced export incentives.
• India's sugar balance is tightening, with stocks expected to fall sharply by the end of September. The government has authorized up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, while below-normal monsoon rainfall and drought conditions in key producing states raise concerns over the next crop.
• Thailand faces a potential 17% decline in 2026/27 production, while China continues to maintain a structural deficit despite reaching a 12-year production high. Pakistan is dealing with a large surplus and limited export capacity, while the United States remains structurally dependent on imports despite its ongoing harvest.
• The global outlook remains divided, with estimates ranging from a modest deficit to a significantly larger shortfall. Market direction will depend heavily on Brazil's harvest progress, India's supply position, weather developments, and whether elevated speculative positioning leads to further price volatility.

Global Sugar Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Fiji: Plays a minor global role. Crushing season start dates depend on mill readiness and grower preparation, per the Sugar Industry Tribunal. A rapidly declining number of active farmers, worsened by labor shortages, is causing sporadic cane supply, delayed harvesting gang agreements (up to two weeks), lower mill utilization, and higher processing costs. A mechanization shift is underway but limited by financial constraints, with these issues isolated from global pricing dynamics.
• India: The world's second largest producer, with USDA FAS forecasting a 12% rise in 2026/27 output to 33,600,000 tons, though industry estimates are more conservative. Closing stocks for 2025/26 are expected to fall to around 3,600,000 tons, among the lowest in decades. The government authorized duty free imports of up to 1,000,000 tons through end October, the first such move since 2017/18, though only a few thousand tons have cleared as falling ex mill prices erased import parity. Maharashtra's season starts October 15 amid drought hit cane availability in Marathwada; Uttar Pradesh's season began October 1 facing acreage contraction, raising risks of early crushing pressure and cane diversion to jaggery. Punjab and Haryana show only marginal changes.
• Pakistan: A production surplus, including another record beet yield, is isolated by strict federal export quotas. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association is pushing to expand the current 200,000 ton export quota to ease storage and financial pressure on growers.
• Indonesia: Plans for 2,000,000 hectares of ethanol focused sugarcane within two years face major feasibility hurdles from capital and logistical constraints.
• United Kingdom: The market stays marginal, with focus on unresolved NFU Sugar and British Sugar contract talks for 2027/28, with arbitration underway amid a possible factory closure that could reshape delivery dynamics.
• Egypt: Export structure is expanding following recent policy reversals.
• Kenya: New government directives aim to revive domestic production, though legislative timeline feasibility remains in question.
• Global: Markets are shifting from surplus to deficit, with the ISO projecting a 200,000 ton global deficit in 2026/27. Bullish factors include Brazil's ethanol focus, lower output in Thailand and Europe, and tight Indian stocks, with El Nino a further risk. Record surplus stocks, softening Chinese demand, and fund liquidity risk on ICE futures counterbalance these pressures, with resistance expected near recent highs amid technical corrections.

Global Sugar Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: The leading producer and exporter, with recent setbacks driving a bullish 2026/27 outlook. Center South June output fell 26.3% to 3.903 million tons, and despite a 2% rise in first half August crushing to 48,390,000 tons, sugar production dropped 7.9% to 3,310,000 tons as mills shifted toward ethanol (crude oil up 3% on geopolitical tensions). The sugar allocation ratio fell to 40-42.5% from around 50% last year. StoneX raised its 2026/27 global deficit forecast to 1,700,000 tons from 550,000 tons, while USDA FAS cut Brazil's full season output projection 3.0% to 42,500,000 tons. Extreme rainfall remains a key risk to peak harvest.
• India: Mixed signals, with ISMA estimating 2025/26 production at 32,000,000 tons and closing stocks at a historic low of 3,600,000 tons, pushing wholesale prices up about 30% in a month. USDA FAS is more optimistic, forecasting a 12% rise in 2026/27 output to 33,600,000 tons and a 2,500,000 ton surplus, the first in two years. Policy remains contradictory, with 1,000,000 tons of duty free import approval alongside reduced dealer stock limits, while falling domestic prices undermine import parity. Monsoon rainfall is 14% below normal.
• Thailand: Facing a 17% production decline for 2026/27, with output expected below 10,000,000 tons on reduced rainfall and a shift toward cassava, continuing a downturn from peak levels above 14,500,000 tons in 2017/18 and 2018/19.
• European Union and United Kingdom: Both at an eleven year production low, with the EU forecasting a 19% year on year decline to 13,400,000 tons for 2026/27 on drought and heat, a bullish factor globally.
• China: A structural deficit persists despite reduced imports amid high domestic stocks and a closed arbitrage window, with 2026/27 output stabilizing near 12,600,000 tons and continued import reliance.
• Pakistan: A domestic surplus remains stranded by an export bloc, risking lost dollar revenue, with the upcoming crop also at risk from limited storage.
• South Africa: A higher dollar based reference import price aims to curb imports, though seen as insufficient, with labor shortages and high costs compounding pressure.
• Fiji: Pursuing structural reforms prioritizing sustainability and mechanization over subsidies amid declining production capacity.
• Kenya: Proposed legislation to consolidate agricultural finance entities is under debate, with no immediate production impact.