Global Sugar Market Summary

• The global sugar market delivered mixed price signals this week as weather disruptions in Brazil supported prices, while large speculative positions, weak physical demand, and revised supply forecasts kept the broader outlook uncertain. The episode reviews the latest developments across the major sugar-producing and consuming regions.
• New York raw sugar futures posted three consecutive gains, while London white sugar declined, with both contracts recovering from recent lows. Brazil remained a key market driver as wet and cool weather slowed Center-South harvesting and reduced sugar output. A stronger Brazilian real and higher crude oil prices also encouraged greater cane allocation toward ethanol and reduced export incentives.
• India's sugar balance is tightening, with stocks expected to fall sharply by the end of September. The government has authorized up to 1 million tons of duty-free raw sugar imports, while below-normal monsoon rainfall and drought conditions in key producing states raise concerns over the next crop.
• Thailand faces a potential 17% decline in 2026/27 production, while China continues to maintain a structural deficit despite reaching a 12-year production high. Pakistan is dealing with a large surplus and limited export capacity, while the United States remains structurally dependent on imports despite its ongoing harvest.
• The global outlook remains divided, with estimates ranging from a modest deficit to a significantly larger shortfall. Market direction will depend heavily on Brazil's harvest progress, India's supply position, weather developments, and whether elevated speculative positioning leads to further price volatility.