Global Sugar Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: The leading producer and exporter, with recent setbacks driving a bullish 2026/27 outlook. Center South June output fell 26.3% to 3.903 million tons, and despite a 2% rise in first half August crushing to 48,390,000 tons, sugar production dropped 7.9% to 3,310,000 tons as mills shifted toward ethanol (crude oil up 3% on geopolitical tensions). The sugar allocation ratio fell to 40-42.5% from around 50% last year. StoneX raised its 2026/27 global deficit forecast to 1,700,000 tons from 550,000 tons, while USDA FAS cut Brazil's full season output projection 3.0% to 42,500,000 tons. Extreme rainfall remains a key risk to peak harvest.
• India: Mixed signals, with ISMA estimating 2025/26 production at 32,000,000 tons and closing stocks at a historic low of 3,600,000 tons, pushing wholesale prices up about 30% in a month. USDA FAS is more optimistic, forecasting a 12% rise in 2026/27 output to 33,600,000 tons and a 2,500,000 ton surplus, the first in two years. Policy remains contradictory, with 1,000,000 tons of duty free import approval alongside reduced dealer stock limits, while falling domestic prices undermine import parity. Monsoon rainfall is 14% below normal.
• Thailand: Facing a 17% production decline for 2026/27, with output expected below 10,000,000 tons on reduced rainfall and a shift toward cassava, continuing a downturn from peak levels above 14,500,000 tons in 2017/18 and 2018/19.
• European Union and United Kingdom: Both at an eleven year production low, with the EU forecasting a 19% year on year decline to 13,400,000 tons for 2026/27 on drought and heat, a bullish factor globally.
• China: A structural deficit persists despite reduced imports amid high domestic stocks and a closed arbitrage window, with 2026/27 output stabilizing near 12,600,000 tons and continued import reliance.
• Pakistan: A domestic surplus remains stranded by an export bloc, risking lost dollar revenue, with the upcoming crop also at risk from limited storage.
• South Africa: A higher dollar based reference import price aims to curb imports, though seen as insufficient, with labor shortages and high costs compounding pressure.
• Fiji: Pursuing structural reforms prioritizing sustainability and mechanization over subsidies amid declining production capacity.
• Kenya: Proposed legislation to consolidate agricultural finance entities is under debate, with no immediate production impact.