Global Sugar Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Fiji: Plays a minor global role. Crushing season start dates depend on mill readiness and grower preparation, per the Sugar Industry Tribunal. A rapidly declining number of active farmers, worsened by labor shortages, is causing sporadic cane supply, delayed harvesting gang agreements (up to two weeks), lower mill utilization, and higher processing costs. A mechanization shift is underway but limited by financial constraints, with these issues isolated from global pricing dynamics.
• India: The world's second largest producer, with USDA FAS forecasting a 12% rise in 2026/27 output to 33,600,000 tons, though industry estimates are more conservative. Closing stocks for 2025/26 are expected to fall to around 3,600,000 tons, among the lowest in decades. The government authorized duty free imports of up to 1,000,000 tons through end October, the first such move since 2017/18, though only a few thousand tons have cleared as falling ex mill prices erased import parity. Maharashtra's season starts October 15 amid drought hit cane availability in Marathwada; Uttar Pradesh's season began October 1 facing acreage contraction, raising risks of early crushing pressure and cane diversion to jaggery. Punjab and Haryana show only marginal changes.
• Pakistan: A production surplus, including another record beet yield, is isolated by strict federal export quotas. The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association is pushing to expand the current 200,000 ton export quota to ease storage and financial pressure on growers.
• Indonesia: Plans for 2,000,000 hectares of ethanol focused sugarcane within two years face major feasibility hurdles from capital and logistical constraints.
• United Kingdom: The market stays marginal, with focus on unresolved NFU Sugar and British Sugar contract talks for 2027/28, with arbitration underway amid a possible factory closure that could reshape delivery dynamics.
• Egypt: Export structure is expanding following recent policy reversals.
• Kenya: New government directives aim to revive domestic production, though legislative timeline feasibility remains in question.
• Global: Markets are shifting from surplus to deficit, with the ISO projecting a 200,000 ton global deficit in 2026/27. Bullish factors include Brazil's ethanol focus, lower output in Thailand and Europe, and tight Indian stocks, with El Nino a further risk. Record surplus stocks, softening Chinese demand, and fund liquidity risk on ICE futures counterbalance these pressures, with resistance expected near recent highs amid technical corrections.