Global Nuts Market Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is facing a sharp farmgate price collapse, with prices falling from around 20 cedis per kilogram last year to approximately 5 cedis, with some transactions as low as 3 cedis. The decline is weakening grower incentives and pushing some experienced farmers to consider leaving the sector. The mandated minimum producer price of 12 cedis per kilogram remains above the prevailing market range, highlighting the disconnect between policy and commercial conditions. Foreign buyers, particularly those supplying Asian processors, are able to pre-finance crops and absorb higher prices, while local processors face difficult margins under a global kernel price ceiling of roughly USD 4,500 per ton. A proposed raw cashew export levy may have limited impact unless the price gap is addressed or additional support is provided to domestic processors.
• US pistachio shipments reached a record 125.2 million pounds in the 2025-26 marketing year, up 1.8% from the previous year. However, China's role as a major destination has declined sharply, with shipments falling 78% as trade shifts toward Asian re-export hubs such as Vietnam. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 crop, California's expected off year and physiological challenges point to lower production, tighter spot liquidity, and potential cost inflation and supply rationing for Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Spain's almond export season ended with lower volumes but higher export value, reflecting a firm pricing environment. The United States became a more important destination, while exports to Germany and Italy declined. Expectations for the next Spanish harvest are considerably stronger, with production forecast to rise 39%, although pest pressure and higher production costs remain risks.
• The hazelnut market remains tight, led by Turkey and Georgia. Smaller Turkish crop expectations and higher intervention prices from the Turkish Grain Board are supporting farmgate values and limiting free-market supply. Georgian hazelnuts are increasingly relevant as a diversification source for European buyers, although quality issues remain. Chile is also expanding its processing capacity, but its near-term impact on global supply is expected to remain limited.
• In the US, Oregon hazelnut growers recorded a 67% increase in prices last season. While higher returns improve grower income, they can also create tax and financial planning considerations, making strategies such as Schedule J and deductible expenses relevant for producers managing unusually high income.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• United States (peanuts/groundnuts): USDA has revised the 2026 crop estimate down to 5,270,000,000 pounds, a 27% year on year decline, driven primarily by acreage loss rather than yield failure. Planted acreage stands at 1,410,000 acres, down 1% month on month and 28% from last year. September yield estimates were adjusted from 3,956 to 3,179 pounds per acre, and while yields have improved by 111 to 112 pounds per acre versus last year, the gain is insufficient to offset the nearly 30% drop in planted area. Trade is currently subdued as farmers transition to harvest, though compressed processing margins, higher replacement costs, and basis appreciation are expected as post harvest procurement normalizes, with reduced forward balances posing a binding risk to domestic stock to use ratios.
• Nigeria (cashew): The country's first nationally validated cashew sector policy framework (2025 to 2035) was unveiled at the ACA conference in Accra and validated in July 2026, targeting annual production of 1,000,000 tons and 50% domestic processing by 2035. Current production stands at 300,000 to 350,000 tons annually, with over 85% exported as raw cashew nuts. Of 25 processing factories built, only around 15 are operational, many below capacity, with a core constraint being productivity, as Nigerian yields of 250 to 300 kilograms per hectare lag Ghana's over 900 kilograms per hectare. The framework focuses on distributing CRIN certified grafted varieties to lift yields without expanding cultivated area, and while the government has avoided a statutory RCN export ban, it plans to boost processor competitiveness through financing, incentives, and infrastructure.
• Ghana (cashew): Facing challenges meeting value addition goals due to a binding price constraint, with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture and TCDA pushing for more domestic processing investment and tighter value chain regulation. A mandated minimum producer price of GHC 12.0 per kilogram, over 50% above the subregional range, is straining domestic processors, who lack the scale and financing of well capitalized foreign buyers dominating sourcing around Sampa and border areas. Without targeted interventions such as supply retention mechanisms, subsidized credit, or tax relief, the domestic processing sector risks further contraction.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Vietnam (cashew): Exporters are facing potential counterparty fraud in Italy, where ENA Food Company sold cashews via S&K Global Trading LLC destined for Italia Cash and Carry SRL. Despite a $100,000 payment, delivery discrepancies emerged, with DHL claiming document delivery, the Italian bank denying custody, and the buyer holding originals, a dispute with parallels to a 2022 incident involving the same legal representation. Negotiations center on refund demands versus cost deductions, with Yang Ming Shipping Line managing the shipment, and risk exposure spanning dozens of similar transactions due to the RCN and kernel pricing mismatch. Aging orchards and expensive imports are further squeezing processor margins, with the RCN kernel spread a key indicator to monitor for signs of processing capacity idling.
• Kyrgyzstan (pistachio): Despite vast pistachio forests, production is hindered by low yields and export quality issues. The predominantly state owned, naturally grown forests suffer from high male tree ratios and variable seed grown quality. Chinese interest has wavered on standardization and regulatory challenges, leaving trade limited to Uzbekistan and Turkey, with weak infrastructure compounding logistics issues. The sector's global impact remains negligible, with improvement contingent on domestic policy reform.
• Global (macadamia, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, China): The market is moving into oversupply as maturing plantations drive production higher against stagnant demand, pushing prices down and raising insolvency risk. Heavy rainfall in South Africa and a strong rand are pressuring margins, prompting a strategic shift toward premium differentiation. Duty adjustments are reshaping competition, with Chinese exports to the EU rising notably, while inventory overhangs and below cost pricing remain key risks, pushing processors to target new markets like India. Stock carryover, kernel quality after rainfall, and EU/US consumer behavior remain top watch points.
• Georgia (almond): Yields are rising but remain below potential due to adverse weather. Exports are contracting on external price pressure despite improved quality, while imports have also fallen amid significant price hikes. Global influence remains minor, with focus on whether higher domestic output substitutes imports or targets Russia.
• India and Georgia (walnut): India's production is high but export performance weak due to value chain deficiencies, including unprocessed raw sales and outdated orchards, prompting calls for diversified value added offerings and better processing infrastructure. In Georgia, upstream collection and storage bottlenecks persist despite adequate downstream processing, with harvest degradation risk tied to a domestic capital shortfall, though global impact stays minimal.
• Georgia, Spain, Turkey (hazelnut): Georgia's stable output is benefiting from recovering EU confidence and new Uzbek market access, though export prices remain pressured, with a favorable Turkish harvest outlook. Exporters are advised to defend price premiums and secure Q1 2027 contracts ahead of potential Turkish competition. In Spain's Camp de Tarragona, production is recovering post drought but remains minor versus global leaders, constrained by environmental and phytosanitary factors, with prices down from previous campaigns despite rising demand.

Global Nuts Market Weekly Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is seeking to unlock additional value from cashew apples, which currently spoil rapidly and represent a significant source of waste and lost income. The MA Cash Initiative aims to extend their shelf life and develop new economic opportunities, while supply chain and financing structures that favor raw nut exports continue to limit domestic value addition.
• In the United States, pistachio production is expected to decline in 2026 due to adverse weather during the bloom cycle, increasing the availability of blank nuts. Similar production challenges are affecting Iran and Turkey, while declining orchard investment raises concerns about future supply. Turkey's hazelnut market remains relatively stable, supported by government pricing measures, although producers continue to face competition from Georgia and suppliers in the Americas.
• Australia's macadamia industry is repositioning itself around quality and sustainability, with the aim of strengthening its premium market position and establishing stronger global benchmarks. California's almond industry continues to benefit from steady demand, although flat performance and smaller kernel sizes remain challenges.
• Almond trade flows are also shifting. Australia's access to China has benefited from favorable trade arrangements, while US suppliers face tariff barriers and logistical challenges. Despite higher unit prices and broader economic pressures, demand for shelled almonds remains strong, pointing to changing consumption patterns and evolving relationships between buyers and suppliers.

Global Nuts Market Summary.

• U.S. peanut plantings for 2026 are projected to decline 22 percent to 1.53 million acres, largely because stronger returns from competing crops, particularly cotton, encouraged farmers to shift acreage. The largest reductions occurred in Texas and Georgia, two of the country's major peanut-producing states.
• As a result, peanut production is forecast to fall by approximately 20 percent to 2.87 million tons. The decline reflects both reduced planted area and expected yield trends. Despite lower production, ending stocks are expected to increase sharply by 81 percent to 1.41 million tons, supported by the record harvest achieved in 2025.
• The episode explains that abundant inventories have weighed on the market, contributing to an 11 percent decline in average peanut prices during the 2025-26 marketing year. The current reduction in acreage is viewed as a market-driven effort to rebalance supply and gradually reduce excess inventories.
• The discussion concludes by highlighting that traders and industry participants are closely watching upcoming USDA updates for revised production and stock estimates. These reports will be important in determining whether tighter production can support a more balanced market and improve price prospects for peanut growers.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• The United States, where groundnut acreage has declined sharply in 2026 as growers shifted to more profitable crops such as cotton amid rising input costs. The reduction in planted area is expected to lower production by around 20 percent compared with the previous year, tightening supplies while easing some of the logistical pressures created by the record 2025 harvest. These developments could have broader implications for global edible nut markets and ingredient supply chains.
• The discussion then turns to the global cashew market. Cote d'Ivoire continued to strengthen its domestic processing industry through government incentives, resulting in significantly higher exports of processed cashew kernels despite lower shipments of raw nuts. However, the country's continued reliance on Vietnam for later stages of processing highlights ongoing structural challenges in building a fully integrated domestic value chain. Vietnam remains the world's dominant processor but continues to depend heavily on raw nut supplies from Africa.
• Turkey's hazelnut sector also featured prominently, with export volumes declining while export revenues increased, reflecting stronger prices and firm global demand amid tighter supplies. The episode explores how currency movements, production conditions, and market fundamentals could continue to influence pricing as the new harvest season progresses.
• The episode also examines Moldova's walnut industry, where exports to the European Union continued to weaken because of stronger competition from suppliers such as China and the United States. Reduced market share highlights the growing competitive pressures facing smaller exporters in key international markets.
• Finally, the discussion covers Ukraine's hazelnut harvest, where prolonged rainfall disrupted mechanized harvesting and forced greater reliance on manual labor. This example illustrates the increasing impact of adverse weather on production efficiency and reinforces the importance of adapting agricultural systems to changing climate conditions.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Rajasthan, India, has expanded by 23.57 percent, reaching 7.13 lakh hectares as farmers continue to favor the crop due to strong edible oil demand, valuable livestock feed byproducts, consistent market returns, and government support. However, timely monsoon rainfall remains critical, as many farms depend on rain-fed cultivation and delayed rainfall could disrupt sowing and impact yields.
• In Tanzania, a shortage of powdered sulfur is creating risks for the upcoming cashew season by limiting crop protection during peak spraying periods. This could reduce both yields and quality, potentially affecting global cashew supplies and supporting international prices despite the country's ambitious production targets.
• The episode also explores changing dynamics in the global cashew industry as African producers expand domestic processing capacity and introduce export policies aimed at retaining more value locally. These developments could gradually challenge Vietnam's long-standing dominance in global cashew processing and reshape international trade flows.
• In the United States, the pistachio sector recorded its strongest May export performance in nearly six years, contributing to record seasonal shipments. However, declining inventories and expectations for a smaller upcoming crop may tighten supplies and influence future pricing.
• The global almond market remains mixed. Spain's exports have weakened due to reduced shipments within Europe, creating opportunities for competing exporters such as the United States and Australia. Meanwhile, stable production forecasts in California could help balance global supply, although persistent water constraints continue to pose long-term production risks.
• The hazelnut market is expected to face downward price pressure as improved crop prospects in Turkey and Georgia increase available supplies. While demand from the confectionery and chocolate industries remains steady, future production outcomes will depend heavily on favorable weather and effective crop management throughout the season.

Global Nuts Market Summary

• Groundnut cultivation in Chitradurga district, where around 100,000 hectares are typically planted, is under pressure due to inadequate rainfall ahead of the early July planting season. Although moderate rainfall is forecast, concerns remain that it may arrive too late or be insufficient to support proper germination and early crop development. Higher fertilizer costs are adding further financial strain, making planting decisions more difficult for growers.
• The challenging weather has also affected other crops across the region. Sunflower has experienced widespread germination failures, while maize planting remains well behind target levels, highlighting broader soil moisture deficiencies. These conditions reinforce concerns that groundnut planting could also fall short of expectations.
• A reduction in planted area would tighten local groundnut supplies, affecting crushers, procurement activity, and regional groundnut oil markets. Lower production could lead to firmer prices for groundnut oil and related products as supply availability declines.
• The episode highlights the importance of closely monitoring rainfall patterns and temperature conditions during the first half of July, as this period will be critical for planting success and early crop establishment. If weather conditions fail to improve, the region could face meaningful reductions in both acreage and yield, with lasting consequences for farmers, supply chains, and regional market dynamics.