Global Nuts Market Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is facing a sharp farmgate price collapse, with prices falling from around 20 cedis per kilogram last year to approximately 5 cedis, with some transactions as low as 3 cedis. The decline is weakening grower incentives and pushing some experienced farmers to consider leaving the sector. The mandated minimum producer price of 12 cedis per kilogram remains above the prevailing market range, highlighting the disconnect between policy and commercial conditions. Foreign buyers, particularly those supplying Asian processors, are able to pre-finance crops and absorb higher prices, while local processors face difficult margins under a global kernel price ceiling of roughly USD 4,500 per ton. A proposed raw cashew export levy may have limited impact unless the price gap is addressed or additional support is provided to domestic processors.
• US pistachio shipments reached a record 125.2 million pounds in the 2025-26 marketing year, up 1.8% from the previous year. However, China's role as a major destination has declined sharply, with shipments falling 78% as trade shifts toward Asian re-export hubs such as Vietnam. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 crop, California's expected off year and physiological challenges point to lower production, tighter spot liquidity, and potential cost inflation and supply rationing for Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Spain's almond export season ended with lower volumes but higher export value, reflecting a firm pricing environment. The United States became a more important destination, while exports to Germany and Italy declined. Expectations for the next Spanish harvest are considerably stronger, with production forecast to rise 39%, although pest pressure and higher production costs remain risks.
• The hazelnut market remains tight, led by Turkey and Georgia. Smaller Turkish crop expectations and higher intervention prices from the Turkish Grain Board are supporting farmgate values and limiting free-market supply. Georgian hazelnuts are increasingly relevant as a diversification source for European buyers, although quality issues remain. Chile is also expanding its processing capacity, but its near-term impact on global supply is expected to remain limited.
• In the US, Oregon hazelnut growers recorded a 67% increase in prices last season. While higher returns improve grower income, they can also create tax and financial planning considerations, making strategies such as Schedule J and deductible expenses relevant for producers managing unusually high income.