Global Nuts Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Vietnam (cashew): Exporters are facing potential counterparty fraud in Italy, where ENA Food Company sold cashews via S&K Global Trading LLC destined for Italia Cash and Carry SRL. Despite a $100,000 payment, delivery discrepancies emerged, with DHL claiming document delivery, the Italian bank denying custody, and the buyer holding originals, a dispute with parallels to a 2022 incident involving the same legal representation. Negotiations center on refund demands versus cost deductions, with Yang Ming Shipping Line managing the shipment, and risk exposure spanning dozens of similar transactions due to the RCN and kernel pricing mismatch. Aging orchards and expensive imports are further squeezing processor margins, with the RCN kernel spread a key indicator to monitor for signs of processing capacity idling.
• Kyrgyzstan (pistachio): Despite vast pistachio forests, production is hindered by low yields and export quality issues. The predominantly state owned, naturally grown forests suffer from high male tree ratios and variable seed grown quality. Chinese interest has wavered on standardization and regulatory challenges, leaving trade limited to Uzbekistan and Turkey, with weak infrastructure compounding logistics issues. The sector's global impact remains negligible, with improvement contingent on domestic policy reform.
• Global (macadamia, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, China): The market is moving into oversupply as maturing plantations drive production higher against stagnant demand, pushing prices down and raising insolvency risk. Heavy rainfall in South Africa and a strong rand are pressuring margins, prompting a strategic shift toward premium differentiation. Duty adjustments are reshaping competition, with Chinese exports to the EU rising notably, while inventory overhangs and below cost pricing remain key risks, pushing processors to target new markets like India. Stock carryover, kernel quality after rainfall, and EU/US consumer behavior remain top watch points.
• Georgia (almond): Yields are rising but remain below potential due to adverse weather. Exports are contracting on external price pressure despite improved quality, while imports have also fallen amid significant price hikes. Global influence remains minor, with focus on whether higher domestic output substitutes imports or targets Russia.
• India and Georgia (walnut): India's production is high but export performance weak due to value chain deficiencies, including unprocessed raw sales and outdated orchards, prompting calls for diversified value added offerings and better processing infrastructure. In Georgia, upstream collection and storage bottlenecks persist despite adequate downstream processing, with harvest degradation risk tied to a domestic capital shortfall, though global impact stays minimal.
• Georgia, Spain, Turkey (hazelnut): Georgia's stable output is benefiting from recovering EU confidence and new Uzbek market access, though export prices remain pressured, with a favorable Turkish harvest outlook. Exporters are advised to defend price premiums and secure Q1 2027 contracts ahead of potential Turkish competition. In Spain's Camp de Tarragona, production is recovering post drought but remains minor versus global leaders, constrained by environmental and phytosanitary factors, with prices down from previous campaigns despite rising demand.