Global Nuts Market Summary

• Ghana's cashew sector is facing a sharp farmgate price collapse, with prices falling from around 20 cedis per kilogram last year to approximately 5 cedis, with some transactions as low as 3 cedis. The decline is weakening grower incentives and pushing some experienced farmers to consider leaving the sector. The mandated minimum producer price of 12 cedis per kilogram remains above the prevailing market range, highlighting the disconnect between policy and commercial conditions. Foreign buyers, particularly those supplying Asian processors, are able to pre-finance crops and absorb higher prices, while local processors face difficult margins under a global kernel price ceiling of roughly USD 4,500 per ton. A proposed raw cashew export levy may have limited impact unless the price gap is addressed or additional support is provided to domestic processors.
• US pistachio shipments reached a record 125.2 million pounds in the 2025-26 marketing year, up 1.8% from the previous year. However, China's role as a major destination has declined sharply, with shipments falling 78% as trade shifts toward Asian re-export hubs such as Vietnam. Looking ahead to the 2026-27 crop, California's expected off year and physiological challenges point to lower production, tighter spot liquidity, and potential cost inflation and supply rationing for Asian and Middle Eastern buyers.
• Spain's almond export season ended with lower volumes but higher export value, reflecting a firm pricing environment. The United States became a more important destination, while exports to Germany and Italy declined. Expectations for the next Spanish harvest are considerably stronger, with production forecast to rise 39%, although pest pressure and higher production costs remain risks.
• The hazelnut market remains tight, led by Turkey and Georgia. Smaller Turkish crop expectations and higher intervention prices from the Turkish Grain Board are supporting farmgate values and limiting free-market supply. Georgian hazelnuts are increasingly relevant as a diversification source for European buyers, although quality issues remain. Chile is also expanding its processing capacity, but its near-term impact on global supply is expected to remain limited.
• In the US, Oregon hazelnut growers recorded a 67% increase in prices last season. While higher returns improve grower income, they can also create tax and financial planning considerations, making strategies such as Schedule J and deductible expenses relevant for producers managing unusually high income.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• United States (peanuts/groundnuts): USDA has revised the 2026 crop estimate down to 5,270,000,000 pounds, a 27% year on year decline, driven primarily by acreage loss rather than yield failure. Planted acreage stands at 1,410,000 acres, down 1% month on month and 28% from last year. September yield estimates were adjusted from 3,956 to 3,179 pounds per acre, and while yields have improved by 111 to 112 pounds per acre versus last year, the gain is insufficient to offset the nearly 30% drop in planted area. Trade is currently subdued as farmers transition to harvest, though compressed processing margins, higher replacement costs, and basis appreciation are expected as post harvest procurement normalizes, with reduced forward balances posing a binding risk to domestic stock to use ratios.
• Nigeria (cashew): The country's first nationally validated cashew sector policy framework (2025 to 2035) was unveiled at the ACA conference in Accra and validated in July 2026, targeting annual production of 1,000,000 tons and 50% domestic processing by 2035. Current production stands at 300,000 to 350,000 tons annually, with over 85% exported as raw cashew nuts. Of 25 processing factories built, only around 15 are operational, many below capacity, with a core constraint being productivity, as Nigerian yields of 250 to 300 kilograms per hectare lag Ghana's over 900 kilograms per hectare. The framework focuses on distributing CRIN certified grafted varieties to lift yields without expanding cultivated area, and while the government has avoided a statutory RCN export ban, it plans to boost processor competitiveness through financing, incentives, and infrastructure.
• Ghana (cashew): Facing challenges meeting value addition goals due to a binding price constraint, with the Ministry of Food and Agriculture and TCDA pushing for more domestic processing investment and tighter value chain regulation. A mandated minimum producer price of GHC 12.0 per kilogram, over 50% above the subregional range, is straining domestic processors, who lack the scale and financing of well capitalized foreign buyers dominating sourcing around Sampa and border areas. Without targeted interventions such as supply retention mechanisms, subsidized credit, or tax relief, the domestic processing sector risks further contraction.

Global Nuts Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Vietnam (cashew): Exporters are facing potential counterparty fraud in Italy, where ENA Food Company sold cashews via S&K Global Trading LLC destined for Italia Cash and Carry SRL. Despite a $100,000 payment, delivery discrepancies emerged, with DHL claiming document delivery, the Italian bank denying custody, and the buyer holding originals, a dispute with parallels to a 2022 incident involving the same legal representation. Negotiations center on refund demands versus cost deductions, with Yang Ming Shipping Line managing the shipment, and risk exposure spanning dozens of similar transactions due to the RCN and kernel pricing mismatch. Aging orchards and expensive imports are further squeezing processor margins, with the RCN kernel spread a key indicator to monitor for signs of processing capacity idling.
• Kyrgyzstan (pistachio): Despite vast pistachio forests, production is hindered by low yields and export quality issues. The predominantly state owned, naturally grown forests suffer from high male tree ratios and variable seed grown quality. Chinese interest has wavered on standardization and regulatory challenges, leaving trade limited to Uzbekistan and Turkey, with weak infrastructure compounding logistics issues. The sector's global impact remains negligible, with improvement contingent on domestic policy reform.
• Global (macadamia, Australia, South Africa, Kenya, China): The market is moving into oversupply as maturing plantations drive production higher against stagnant demand, pushing prices down and raising insolvency risk. Heavy rainfall in South Africa and a strong rand are pressuring margins, prompting a strategic shift toward premium differentiation. Duty adjustments are reshaping competition, with Chinese exports to the EU rising notably, while inventory overhangs and below cost pricing remain key risks, pushing processors to target new markets like India. Stock carryover, kernel quality after rainfall, and EU/US consumer behavior remain top watch points.
• Georgia (almond): Yields are rising but remain below potential due to adverse weather. Exports are contracting on external price pressure despite improved quality, while imports have also fallen amid significant price hikes. Global influence remains minor, with focus on whether higher domestic output substitutes imports or targets Russia.
• India and Georgia (walnut): India's production is high but export performance weak due to value chain deficiencies, including unprocessed raw sales and outdated orchards, prompting calls for diversified value added offerings and better processing infrastructure. In Georgia, upstream collection and storage bottlenecks persist despite adequate downstream processing, with harvest degradation risk tied to a domestic capital shortfall, though global impact stays minimal.
• Georgia, Spain, Turkey (hazelnut): Georgia's stable output is benefiting from recovering EU confidence and new Uzbek market access, though export prices remain pressured, with a favorable Turkish harvest outlook. Exporters are advised to defend price premiums and secure Q1 2027 contracts ahead of potential Turkish competition. In Spain's Camp de Tarragona, production is recovering post drought but remains minor versus global leaders, constrained by environmental and phytosanitary factors, with prices down from previous campaigns despite rising demand.