Global Maize Market Summary

• United States: A near-record crop of 406,300,000 tons has been harvested, but adverse late summer weather has lowered the national yield estimate, which in turn cuts projected 2026/27 ending stocks and tightens the stocks-to-use ratio considerably. The US remains a key supplier, with strong export activity.
• Brazil: Production is expected to reach 148,000,000 tons on expanded planted area, despite lower yields in the previous cycle. Ethanol mandates absorb a large share of output, creating an inelastic demand floor and compressing the stocks-to-use ratio.
• European Union and United Kingdom: Persistently unfavorable weather has led to one of the lowest maize harvests in recent decades. This is raising import needs and regional feed prices, with sourcing shifting heavily toward the United States and Ukraine.
• Ukraine: A severe logistics crisis is limiting exports, creating a backlog and possible storage problems ahead of the next harvest and pressuring local prices.
• Argentina: The record 2025/26 harvest is wrapping up, and competitive pricing relative to US offers gives Argentina an edge in global markets.
• Canada: A significant increase in output has helped lift global maize supply to a record high.
• Philippines: Typhoon damage has reduced production forecasts, increasing import needs as global availability tightens.
• China: Moderate weather risks during critical growth stages could affect yields, though substantial strategic reserves provide a buffer. Any change in Chinese purchasing is a key market trigger.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Russia: The 2026/27 harvest is estimated at 88,100,000 to 90,000,000 tons, but military activity has severely constrained export logistics. First quarter exports fell 54.7% year on year. Domestic prices are forcing farmers to sell below production costs, and policy measures to ease the surplus have proved insufficient. A recovery in port infrastructure is seen as key to easing global market strain.
• United States: Winter wheat production is the lowest in nearly fifty years, with hard red winter wheat at historic lows. Export demand remains sluggish despite tight supplies, as other origins offer more competitive prices. Weather is causing planting delays, while spring wheat harvests are slightly above historical averages.
• Canada: Revised estimates point to lower production, yet inventories have risen notably even though early exports are running ahead of last year.
• Australia: Favorable conditions point to a strong yield recovery, positioning the country to fill the Black Sea shortfall, though existing commitments constrain logistics.
• European Union: Soft wheat exports are ahead of last year, with France and neighboring countries benefiting from disrupted Black Sea flows. Egypt is shifting its imports toward European origins as Russian supply collapses.
• Argentina: Wheat estimates have been revised lower, but export surpluses remain substantial. Competitiveness in Asian markets depends on maintaining price spreads against other major exporters.
• China: Structural import caps and weather risks may shape strategic reserve management and long-term reliance on foreign wheat.
• Other markets: Kazakhstan faces production shortfalls, and Bangladesh has resumed large-scale imports from India after export restrictions were lifted. Vietnam is adjusting trade flows amid shortages, while high replacement costs are pushing Indonesia toward smaller purchase volumes.

Global Maize Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Global: The season is marked by a significant consumption deficit of nearly 30,000,000 tons, the largest shortfall in over three decades. Despite the second largest US crop on record, declining output from other major exporters is contracting global ending stocks to the lowest since 2013/14, driven by Black Sea logistics disruptions and high South American ethanol absorption.
• United States: A near record crop of 406,300,000 tons, though yield reductions from late summer weather have weighed on the total. Tight stocks to use ratios are expected amid strong demand, with export commitments surging to 87,000,000 tons and robust ethanol production. Wet weather in key states poses risk to harvest quality and timing.
• Argentina: A record harvest driven by substantial area expansion, with competitive FOB pricing undercutting US offers, though logistical challenges mean sustaining high port throughput remains critical to competitiveness.
• Brazil: Exceptional yields in regions like Mato Grosso, but the E30 ethanol mandate is absorbing a large share of output, compressing export availability and making export targets harder to hit despite high production.
• European Union: Facing its smallest maize crop in decades, turning to imports with the US stepping in as primary supplier amid Ukrainian supply issues, with France reporting sharp production declines on adverse weather.
• Ukraine: An above average crop, but logistical disruptions are severely constraining exports, with a substantial carryover backlog and storage deficits looming, pressuring profitability.
• Turkey: Shifting toward domestic reserves over immediate imports, reinstating a prohibitive import tariff, reflecting caution despite high structural import needs.
• Chile: Moving toward an E10 ethanol mandate, with a marginal supply chain impact expected to be met efficiently by Argentine surplus.