Global Maize Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Global: The season is marked by a significant consumption deficit of nearly 30,000,000 tons, the largest shortfall in over three decades. Despite the second largest US crop on record, declining output from other major exporters is contracting global ending stocks to the lowest since 2013/14, driven by Black Sea logistics disruptions and high South American ethanol absorption.
• United States: A near record crop of 406,300,000 tons, though yield reductions from late summer weather have weighed on the total. Tight stocks to use ratios are expected amid strong demand, with export commitments surging to 87,000,000 tons and robust ethanol production. Wet weather in key states poses risk to harvest quality and timing.
• Argentina: A record harvest driven by substantial area expansion, with competitive FOB pricing undercutting US offers, though logistical challenges mean sustaining high port throughput remains critical to competitiveness.
• Brazil: Exceptional yields in regions like Mato Grosso, but the E30 ethanol mandate is absorbing a large share of output, compressing export availability and making export targets harder to hit despite high production.
• European Union: Facing its smallest maize crop in decades, turning to imports with the US stepping in as primary supplier amid Ukrainian supply issues, with France reporting sharp production declines on adverse weather.
• Ukraine: An above average crop, but logistical disruptions are severely constraining exports, with a substantial carryover backlog and storage deficits looming, pressuring profitability.
• Turkey: Shifting toward domestic reserves over immediate imports, reinstating a prohibitive import tariff, reflecting caution despite high structural import needs.
• Chile: Moving toward an E10 ethanol mandate, with a marginal supply chain impact expected to be met efficiently by Argentine surplus.