Global Wheat Market Summary

• Russia: The 2026/27 harvest is estimated at 88,100,000 to 90,000,000 tons, but military activity has severely constrained export logistics. First quarter exports fell 54.7% year on year. Domestic prices are forcing farmers to sell below production costs, and policy measures to ease the surplus have proved insufficient. A recovery in port infrastructure is seen as key to easing global market strain.
• United States: Winter wheat production is the lowest in nearly fifty years, with hard red winter wheat at historic lows. Export demand remains sluggish despite tight supplies, as other origins offer more competitive prices. Weather is causing planting delays, while spring wheat harvests are slightly above historical averages.
• Canada: Revised estimates point to lower production, yet inventories have risen notably even though early exports are running ahead of last year.
• Australia: Favorable conditions point to a strong yield recovery, positioning the country to fill the Black Sea shortfall, though existing commitments constrain logistics.
• European Union: Soft wheat exports are ahead of last year, with France and neighboring countries benefiting from disrupted Black Sea flows. Egypt is shifting its imports toward European origins as Russian supply collapses.
• Argentina: Wheat estimates have been revised lower, but export surpluses remain substantial. Competitiveness in Asian markets depends on maintaining price spreads against other major exporters.
• China: Structural import caps and weather risks may shape strategic reserve management and long-term reliance on foreign wheat.
• Other markets: Kazakhstan faces production shortfalls, and Bangladesh has resumed large-scale imports from India after export restrictions were lifted. Vietnam is adjusting trade flows amid shortages, while high replacement costs are pushing Indonesia toward smaller purchase volumes.