Global Maize Market Summary

• United States: A near-record crop of 406,300,000 tons has been harvested, but adverse late summer weather has lowered the national yield estimate, which in turn cuts projected 2026/27 ending stocks and tightens the stocks-to-use ratio considerably. The US remains a key supplier, with strong export activity.
• Brazil: Production is expected to reach 148,000,000 tons on expanded planted area, despite lower yields in the previous cycle. Ethanol mandates absorb a large share of output, creating an inelastic demand floor and compressing the stocks-to-use ratio.
• European Union and United Kingdom: Persistently unfavorable weather has led to one of the lowest maize harvests in recent decades. This is raising import needs and regional feed prices, with sourcing shifting heavily toward the United States and Ukraine.
• Ukraine: A severe logistics crisis is limiting exports, creating a backlog and possible storage problems ahead of the next harvest and pressuring local prices.
• Argentina: The record 2025/26 harvest is wrapping up, and competitive pricing relative to US offers gives Argentina an edge in global markets.
• Canada: A significant increase in output has helped lift global maize supply to a record high.
• Philippines: Typhoon damage has reduced production forecasts, increasing import needs as global availability tightens.
• China: Moderate weather risks during critical growth stages could affect yields, though substantial strategic reserves provide a buffer. Any change in Chinese purchasing is a key market trigger.