Global Maize Market Summary

• In the United States, maize producers continue to face high production costs despite a strong harvest of 406.27 million tons. Significantly higher prices for seeds and crop protection inputs, compared with Brazil, are reducing the competitiveness of US maize exports. While export volumes remain strong at 79.88 million tons, concerns over future tariffs and regulatory scrutiny could place additional pressure on export performance.
• Brazil's maize market is experiencing a sharp slowdown in exports, with July shipments falling dramatically from the previous year. Tight domestic supplies, a lower stocks-to-use ratio, and rising demand from the country's E30 ethanol program are limiting export availability. Storage congestion following the soybean harvest and delays in the safrinha harvest are also contributing to export volatility.
• France is facing its weakest maize production in 26 years after severe heat waves reduced crop conditions and lowered production forecasts to 9.5 million tons. The resulting supply shortfall is increasing the European Union's dependence on maize imports to meet domestic demand and stabilize regional markets.
• In Argentina, harvest progress remains slightly behind schedule, affecting export timing. Producers are also holding maize as a hedge against currency volatility, limiting the volume available for immediate export.
• The Philippines is expected to record a 2 percent decline in maize production for the 2026 to 2027 season due to reduced planting area and higher input costs. Continued strength in feed demand is increasing the country's reliance on imports to offset lower domestic production.
• Ukraine continues to face weak market conditions as lower demand, declining spot prices, and intense competition from wheat and barley weigh on the sector. Large old crop inventories, combined with weaker import demand from Turkey and the European Union and ongoing logistical constraints at Black Sea ports, are creating additional challenges for exports and market recovery.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Turkmenistan has achieved its 2026 state wheat procurement target of 1.4 million tonnes, supported by drought adapted seed varieties and increased mechanization. Production remains focused on meeting domestic consumption, with only limited exports into Eurasian trade corridors. Although these exports contribute to regional supply, the country's relatively small production scale means it has little influence over broader Caspian Basin wheat markets, where Russia and Kazakhstan remain the dominant suppliers.
• Russia concluded the 2025-26 export season with an estimated 46 to 48 million tonnes of wheat exports, driven by strong demand from major buyers including Egypt and Turkey. Despite challenging market conditions, historically low domestic prices, and policy changes, Russia continues to leverage its extensive export infrastructure and geographic advantages to remain highly competitive. Its ability to offer wheat at lower prices continues to place downward pressure on global markets, with attention now shifting to whether export volumes can be maintained or expanded during the 2026-27 season.
• China recorded a modest 0.6 percent increase in wheat production during 2026, but late season rainfall reduced crop quality and increased the share of wheat suitable only for feed use. The country continues to prioritize food security by combining lower quality domestic supplies with imported higher grade wheat. The balance between domestic reserves and import requirements will remain an important factor to watch as China manages grain quality concerns while maintaining its long term self sufficiency strategy.

Global Wheat Market Summary

• Bangladesh approved the import of 270,000 tonnes of wheat, valued at approximately US$85.2 million, sourcing most of the volume from the United States while also purchasing from AgroCorp International. The decision reflects a preference for diversified, premium-quality suppliers over lower-cost alternatives, reinforcing the country's strategy of securing reliable wheat supplies and stabilizing domestic consumption.
• In Argentina, wheat planting reached 80.9 percent of the targeted 6.5 million hectares by early July, supported by favorable dry weather. The accelerated planting pace reduces the risk of delays and supports production prospects, although weather conditions will remain a key factor influencing final yields and global supply expectations.
• Armenia continued strengthening its grain supply chain by expanding the use of Azerbaijan's rail network for Russian wheat imports. More than 23,900 tonnes of wheat transited during the first half of 2026, demonstrating the importance of regional infrastructure investments in maintaining stable grain availability despite ongoing geopolitical complexities.
• Russia remained a dominant force in global wheat exports despite a modest decline in production forecasts. The Altai region recorded a 3.9-fold increase in wheat exports compared with the previous year, supported by strategic harvesting, export policy adjustments, and strong demand from markets including Kazakhstan and Vietnam. These developments underline Russia's continued ability to sustain export competitiveness while supporting grain supply across Central and Southeast Asia.