In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and James Carouso dive deep into former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's dramatic 2016 pivot from the US to China. Joined by authors Marites Vitug and Camille Elemia, they discuss their book Unrequited Love: Duterte's China Embrace.

The conversation kicks off with why this "love affair" matters globally–how it reshaped South China Sea geopolitics, tested international law, and challenged the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty over Duterte’s six-year term in office. Duterte downplayed the 2016 arbitral ruling against China as "a piece of paper," turning a blind eye to Chinese incursions while seeking economic aid. Our guests explain how China provided cover for Duterte's drug war while the West heaped on criticism.

Duterte's pro-China tilt stemmed from personal history: As Davao City mayor, he built ties with Chinese businessmen and harbored anti-US resentment from incidents like when a suspected US agent allegedly implicated in a Davao City bombing incident was whisked out of the country. Influenced by communist professor Jose Maria Sison and his anti-imperialist mother, Duterte viewed America as imperialists. Yet, surveys show Filipinos mostly remain pro-US and distrust China, with 70-80% favoring assertion of West Philippine Sea rights.

The 2016 election saw Duterte win by portraying himself as an authentic outsider fighting a "narco state." His charm, social media savvy, and anti-elite messaging resonated, in contrast to his predecessor’s perceived lack of empathy.

Economically, however, the promised benefits fell flat: Duterte touted billions in Chinese loans, but only 3-4 infrastructure projects materialized. In return, the authors contend that China gained "free rein" in disputed waters, ultimately blocking Philippine resource exploration. Xi Jinping benefited from strategic breathing room, more ASEAN allies, and weakened US influence—though some in Duterte's cabinet resisted, voicing the military’s deep sentiments against appeasement.

Despite this, Rodrigo Duterte left office with his popularity largely intact due to his personal connection to the electorate, not his foreign policy. Our guests resist his supporters’ pragmatism claims, noting neighbors like Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam are able to balance China without surrendering their sovereignty.

The authors express fears that his daughter Sara Duterte–the Philippines’ current vice president–may revive his pro-China policies if elected in 2028. She opposes US missiles like the Typhon; never criticizes Chinese aggression, and repeats his scare tactics about war. Unlike current President Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr., who pivoted back to the US, Sara lacks significant Western exposure. Her charisma, Duterte brand, and social media machine boost her chances, even amid a recent impeachment effort.

The episode touches on the recent Marcos-Trump deal (which saw tariffs barely cut from 20% to 19%), divided reactions in the Philippines, and media bubbles. The authors explain that President Duterte's current ICC detention for drug war crimes has drawn sympathy, potentially aiding Sara's bid.

A must-listen for insights on Philippine politics, US-China rivalry, South China Sea tensions, and Duterte's enduring legacy. Get the book on Amazon (ebook) or Ateneo Press. Follow guests on Facebook, LinkedIn, or X.

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In a groundbreaking episode, Ray and Jim welcome their first-ever head of state as a guest—President Surangel Whipps Jr., the 10th President of the Republic of Palau. This historic interview marks a milestone for the podcast, which has previously featured cabinet ministers, four-star officers, ambassadors, and parliamentarians across 90+ episodes.

President Whipps delivered a powerful message about Palau's steadfast diplomatic recognition of Taiwan, declaring the relationship as lasting "until death do us part". Despite China's economic inducements and tourism boycotts, this Pacific island nation of just 20,000 people remains one of only 12 countries worldwide that continue to recognize Taiwan diplomatically.

The president explained that Palau values partnerships with countries sharing the same principles: rule of law and aninternational rules-based order. Since becoming diplomatic allies with Taiwan in 1999, Palau has weathered significant economic pressure, including China's tourism boycott that reduced visitors from 100,000 Chinese tourists (then representing 70% of its total tourism) to zero after 2016.

President Whipps shared compelling examples of China's economic warfare tactics, including offers to build casinos to solve Palau's pension crisis and promises of "a million tourists" with unlimited hotel development. However, the president emphasized that mass Chinese tourism brought environmental challenges, including illegal harvesting of protected species like the bumphead parrotfish and Napoleon wrasse.

Under the Compact of Free Association (COFA), recently renewed, Palau maintains a perpetual defense relationship with the United States. The compact grants the US security and denial rights to Palau while providing economic stability and protection. President Whipps highlighted the construction of an over-the-horizon radar site, emphasizing that Palau has "always had a target on our back because of our location".

Managing an exclusive economic zone the size of Texas with only two patrol boats presents enormous challenges. Whipps described ongoing issues with illegal fishing, unauthorized Chinese research vessels, and the discovery of 100 fish aggregating devices in Palau's waters. Chinese research vessels have been operating year-round in Palau's extended continental shelf, even naming underwater ridges with Chinese names.

The president delivered sobering testimony about climate change impacts, describing it as "like a slow death" compared to the bombings of World War II. Palau faces disappearing stingless jellyfish (their top tourist attraction), rising sea levels, and the potential loss of entire low-lying islands with their unique cultures and languages.

President Whipps emphasized the importance of multilateral partnerships, referencing Palau's traditional symbol of the surgeonfish: "when danger comes, you come together”. Through the Pacific Island Forum and other alliances, small island nations amplify their voices on critical issues like maritime security and climate change.

This unprecedented interview offers unique insights from a Pacific island leader navigating great power competition while protecting sovereignty, culture, and environment.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso are joined by Kharis Templeman, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution, to analyze the fallout from Taiwan's recent failed recall election attempt and what it means for the island's future.

The discussion centers on the July 26 recall votes, where an attempt to remove 24 opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers from office was rejected by voters. This outcome solidifies a challenging period of divided government for President Lai Ching-te's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which controls the presidency but not the legislature. Templeman explains that the recalls, initiated by grassroots activists concerned about the KMT's legislative agenda, represented a high-stakes effort to shift the balance of power. Their failure means President Lai must continue to navigate an opposition that has resisted efforts to bolster Taiwan's defenses against pressure from the People's Republic of China (PRC).

The podcast provides essential context on Taiwan's key political players:

• The KMT, or "Blue" camp, is Taiwan's oldest political party. Once staunchly anti-communist, it now advocates for engagement and dialogue with Beijing and is seen as the party the PRC prefers. The KMT positions itself as better able to manage cross-strait relations peacefully.

• The DPP, or "Green" camp, is more skeptical of China. The Lai administration has focused on strengthening Taiwan's military and civil resilience, a stance the KMT-led opposition claims is provocative.

Templeman unpacks the broader geopolitical implications, touching on how Beijing frames the recall failure as a rejection of "Taiwan independence". The conversation also covers the recent US decision to deny President Lai a stop in New York City during a planned transit visit, a move viewed by many as a concession to Beijing amid ongoing US-China negotiations. This highlights the complex and often transactional nature of the US-Taiwan relationship.

Looking ahead, with the recall option almost exhausted, Taiwan's political factions face a stalemate. Templeman suggests this could lead to either more intense partisan conflict or a period of moderation and compromise as both parties eye the 2026 local elections. This episode offers a crucial analysis of the domestic power struggles and international pressures shaping Taiwan's path forward.

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome back Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and professor at Princeton University, to examine how recent U.S. military strikes in Iran impact deterrence dynamics across the Indo-Pacific region.

Iran Strikes and China Deterrence

Cooper argues that U.S. strikes against Iran may actually strengthen deterrence against China by demonstrating American unpredictability. Chinese officials had reportedly viewed Trump as a "paper tiger" following trade negotiations, but the Iran strikes have forced Beijing to recalculate its assumptions about U.S. willingness to use force in a Taiwan crisis.

Alliance Management Under Pressure

The conversation explores growing tensions in U.S. Indo-Pacific alliances as the Trump administration links trade negotiations to security commitments. Cooper expresses concern that threatened tariffs and demands for increased defense spending could undermine alliance relationships, particularly with South Korea, Japan, and Australia.

Nuclear Proliferation Concerns

The panel discusses alarming implications for nuclear proliferation in the Indo-Pacific, with Cooper warning that recent events may accelerate desires for independent nuclear capabilities among regional allies. The setback to Iran's nuclear program paradoxically demonstrates both the risks and benefits of pursuing nuclear weapons.

Regional Defense Architecture

Cooper critically examines Eli Ratner's proposal for an Indo-Pacific defense pact (the "Squad" - U.S., Japan, Australia, Philippines), arguing that formal defense agreements may be premature given current political realities in allied capitals. He suggests focusing on operational cooperation and interoperability instead.

India-Pakistan Lessons

The recent India-Pakistan border conflict provides valuable insights for Indo-Pacific military planning, with Cooper noting that Indian air operations were largely successful despite Pakistani use of Chinese-supplied air defense systems.

Information Warfare Challenges

As chairman of the Open Technology Fund, Cooper discusses ongoing efforts to maintain internet freedom tools like Signal and VPN access in authoritarian countries, despite Trump administration attempts to shut down U.S. Agency for Global Media operations.

Strategic Implications

Cooper emphasizes that while Middle East conflicts may seem distant from Indo-Pacific concerns, they fundamentally shape how regional powers assess American resolve and commitment. The unpredictability doctrine may serve deterrence purposes, but creates significant challenges for alliance management and strategic planning.

👉 Follow Zack Cooper on X, @ZackCooper, and pick up a copy of his book Tides of Fortune: The Rise and Decline of Great Militaries

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In this episode, we interview Andrew Phelan, a China specialist with decades of business experience, to analyze Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's week-long diplomatic visit to China. The discussion examines critical questions about Australia's economic dependence on China, security vulnerabilities, and the broader implications for Indo-Pacific stability.

Phelan asserts that no country has benefited more from China's rise than Australia. Since China's opening under Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s, Australia has experienced unprecedented economic growth, with China transforming from a closed economy similar to North Korea today into Australia's largest trading partner. This relationship has fundamentally underwritten Australia's wealth and sustained economic expansion without recession.

However, this prosperity comes with significant risks. Australia's economy, worth just over a trillion dollars, is dwarfed by China's economic might. Unrestricted Chinese foreign direct investment could result in Australia losing its economic independence entirely. The recent rejection of Chinese acquisition attempts highlights the tension between economic opportunity and national sovereignty.

The discussion reveals concerning patterns of technology transfer, where Western corporations pursuing quarterly profits inadvertently strengthen future competitors. This short-term thinking contrasts sharply with China's long-term strategic planning and subsidies.

Phelan also cites evidence of Chinese interference in Australian elections, including AI-based communications specifically targeting the Australian-Chinese community. Following the October 7 attacks in Gaza, for example, some speeches were manipulated using AI and distributed through Chinese social media platforms to influence vulnerable community members.

The relationship between China and Australia's Labor Party raises additional concerns. Victoria's former Premier Daniel Andrews maintained controversial close ties with China, including signing the only standalone Belt and Road Initiative agreement by any global jurisdiction. This led to new federal legislation preventing such unilateral agreements.

Australia's current defense capabilities pale compared to World War II preparations. Phelan says that today's "boutique defense force" of 60,000 personnel from a 25 million person population is nowhere near adequate for current strategic challenges.

The Pentagon's AUKUS review under Elbridge Colby reflects legitimate concerns about allied preparedness. Phelan believes the best way to avoid conflict is to be as well-prepared as possible, requiring clear commitments from allies facing an increasingly assertive China.

China's objective to distance the United States from its allies shows “patchy” success. While their soft power efforts remain “clumsy” and easily identifiable, institutional influence through organizations like the Australia-China Relations Institute demonstrates more subtle approaches.

Xi Jinping's global initiatives represent an alternative operating system for the world, seeking to make Chinese governance models the default globally. This constitutes “an existential challenge to democratic governance”, requiring sustained engagement and strategic clarity from democratic nations.

The episode reveals Australia's precarious position between economic prosperity and strategic security. As China's “continuous struggle” philosophy ensures ongoing pressure, Phelan says Australia must develop a greater strategic backbone while maintaining necessary economic relationships. The challenge extends beyond Australia to all Indo-Pacific democracies navigating similar dependencies in an increasingly complex geopolitical environment.

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In a very special episode, Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert "Gibo" Teodoro sat down with co-host Ray Powell for an exclusive in-person interview at his Manila office, delivering insights into the Philippines' defense strategy to counter China's aggression in the West Philippine Sea.

Secretary Teodoro emphasized that defending the Philippines matters globally because maritime violations anywhere threaten the international order. "If we are to preserve an international order, imperfect as it is, then we should care if anyone's country, no matter how small, is violated," Teodoro stated. He noted that China's approach appears focused on weakening alliances between the United States and its partners.

The defense chief highlighted that multiple nations support the Philippines’ stand, including Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and European G7 countries, all facing similar challenges from Chinese gray zone aggression.

Secretary Teodoro outlined the Philippines' shift from its traditional post-invasion land defense to a proactive deterrent strategy called the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept. This multi-domain approach recognizes that modern conflicts begin with information warfare, cyber attacks, and hybrid operations before physical invasion.

The strategy aims to secure the Philippines' 80% water, 20% land territory under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, protecting fishing grounds from Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and fishing vessels that have violated Philippine maritime rights and severely degraded its traditional fishing areas.

The defense secretary discussed modernization efforts under the Re-Horizon 3 program, moving beyond the country’s outdated 15-year planning cycles. Key investments he is pursuing include:

- Strategic infrastructure and bases to fortify outer territorial boundaries

- Secure connectivity and domain awareness across 2 million square kilometers of maritime area

- Medium-range missile capabilities and multi-role fighters

- Hybrid warfare tools, including drones and unmanned systems

- Cognitive warfare capabilities to combat PRC disinformation

- Force structure expansion beyond the current 162,000 personnel for a country of over 120 million.

Teodoro addressed China's information warfare efforts, including attempts to censor “Food Delivery”, a West Philippine Sea documentary that recently won awards in New Zealand. He also discussed confrontational tabloid tactics by China Daily reporters at Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue.

The interview revealed the significant evolution of Philippine-Japan defense cooperation, with both nations facing similar Chinese territorial challenges. Japan's proposed "one-theater concept" creates an operational convergence between the US Indo-Pacific Command, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, as does the country’s recently approved Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan.

Teodoro addressed the impact on Filipino fishermen excluded from traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal. China has no right to exclude anyone from these waters, the secretary emphasized, according to international law and the landmark 2016 Arbitral Tribunal ruling.

The defense chief noted how China's West Philippine Sea actions have become the primary catalyst for international convergence in opposition to Beijing, with countries recognizing that "if China can do it here, then other countries can do it in their own areas".

Teodoro observed that 90% of Filipinos distrust China due to current leadership's actions, suggesting Chinese leadership will face accountability for damaging its international standing and uniting its adversaries in opposition.

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In Ep. 87, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso speak with Ambassador Pou Sothirak, a former Cambodian diplomat and current distinguished advisor to the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies, to unpack the complex issues facing Cambodia today. The discussion centers on the renewed border conflict with Thailand, the controversy surrounding the Ream Naval Base, and Cambodia's strategic navigation of its relationships with the United States and China.

Ambassador Sothirak provides historical context for the century-old border dispute, which has its origins in French colonial-era maps from 1907. He recounts the history of the conflict, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings in 1962 and 2013 that affirmed Cambodia's sovereignty over the Preah Vihear temple and its surrounding territory. The most recent clashes, which began in late May, are described as a "misunderstanding" at face value but are deeply entangled with issues of nationalism and domestic politics in both nations. The situation has been exacerbated by a political crisis in Thailand following a leaked phone call between the leaders of the two nations, which has brought bilateral relations to a low point. The Ambassador suggests a path forward involving third-party mediation to facilitate a truce and demilitarization of the border, followed by high-level diplomatic talks.

The conversation addresses widespread speculation that China's extensive support in upgrading the Ream Naval Base amounts to establishing a Chinese military outpost. Ambassador Sothirak dismisses this as a "myth," stating that Cambodia's constitution prohibits foreign military bases on its soil. He explains that Cambodia's collaboration with China is aimed at modernizing its own navy to safeguard its maritime security. However, he acknowledges the semi-permanent, rotating presence of Chinese ships and personnel at the base. He views the recent visit by the U.S. Secretary of Defense as a critical opportunity to dispel misconceptions and improve transparency, emphasizing that Cambodia must balance its ties between the two superpowers.

The episode explores Cambodia's foreign policy and its efforts to manage its relationships with both the U.S. and China. China is Cambodia's largest donor and source of foreign direct investment, with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) funding essential infrastructure like power plants and highways. At the same time, the United States is Cambodia's biggest export market. Ambassador Sothirak expresses concern that potential U.S. tariffs, intended to pressure China, could inadvertently harm Cambodia's economy and push it further into China's orbit. He argues that for a small country like Cambodia, maintaining engagement with both the U.S. and China is essential for its development and sovereignty.

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Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Ian Urbina returns to “Why Should We Care About the Indo-Pacific” to preview Season 2 of his acclaimed Outlaw Ocean podcast, exposing the hidden world of human rights and environmental abuses on the high seas—from brutal labor conditions on distant-water fishing vessels to coercive processing centers in China, India, and beyond.

Urbina, founder and director of the Outlaw Ocean Project, dives into the maritime underworld and examines what’s changed—and what remains unchanged—since his first appearance on the pod. The conversation unfolds in two parts:

1. China’s Distant-Water Fleet & At-Sea Abuses

- Fleet scale and state ties: China’s distant-water fleet dwarfs all others, with estimates ranging from 2,700 to 17,000 vessels; Urbina’s team calculated about 6,500 ships, one-third of which have direct state involvement.

- Illegal fishing and geopolitical power: Chinese longliners and squid jiggers routinely engage in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing—invading marine protected areas, overfishing, and crossing exclusive economic zones—thereby gaining economic advantage and shaping “facts on the water” to support territorial claims.

- Life on board squid jiggers: These industrial vessels use hundreds of bright lights and metal arms to jig for squid. Crews of 30–50 often endure two- to three-year contracts at sea with no shore leave, cramped and unsanitary conditions, malnutrition, and no Wi-Fi. Laborers—initially foreign but increasingly rural Chinese—face debt bondage, violence, passport confiscation, and forced labor.

2. On-Land Processing & Global Supply Chains

- Scope expansion: Season 2 follows seafood from ship to shore, uncovering forced labor in processing plants across China, India, and along the North Korean border.

- Chinese processing centers: Utilizing open-source intelligence and encrypted Chinese platforms, Urbina’s team documented state-orchestrated labor transfers of Uyghurs from Xinjiang to coastal seafood factories—facilities that supply major global buyers, including U.S. government cafeterias. Workers face locked compounds, surveillance, and coercion akin to modern slavery.

- North Korean laborers: Thousands of North Korean women are trafficked into Chinese factories under government vetting. Held in locked dorms and subjected to widespread sexual abuse and forced overtime, these women are trapped by debts owed to smugglers and extortion from border officials.

- Indian shrimp processing: A whistleblower’s 50,000-page dossier exposed debt bondage, physical confinement, and antibiotic-tainted shrimp at processing plants in India. As Western buyers migrated from Thailand to India, the same labor abuses reemerged, threatening food safety and ethical sourcing.

By weaving narrative storytelling with hard data and firsthand testimony, this episode underscores the urgent need for transparent supply chains and international enforcement to protect vulnerable workers and marine ecosystems. Visit TheOutlawOcean.com for updates, subscribe to the newsletter, and tune into Season 2 for deep-dive investigations that track seafood—and human exploitation—from ocean depths to dinner tables.