In Ep. 116, Senator Todd Young of Indiana sits down with co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss why what happens in the South China Sea, around Taiwan, and across the first island chain directly shapes America’s prosperity and national security. Senator Young, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer and one of the Senate’s leading voices on Indo-Pacific security, explains that he's championing the Ships for America Act and the HARPOON Act because he believes the U.S. cannot afford to turn inward in an era of intensifying competition with China.​

Drawing on his experience from a recent visit to the Philippines, Senator Young describes a population that feels “under siege” as China’s coast guard and maritime militia harass commercial and fishing vessels, challenge Manila’s sovereign rights, and test U.S. treaty commitments in one of the world’s most dangerous sea lanes. He explains how the northern Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and the broader first island chain form a critical maritime corridor for global trade - and how Beijing’s push to control these waters could give it leverage over shipping, energy flow,s and supply chains that Americans rely on every day.​

Young walks through two signature legislative initiatives: the HARPOON Act, which equips the U.S. and its partners to push back against China’s illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing and broader resource predation, and the Ships for America Act, which aims to revive U.S. commercial shipbuilding capacity from just a handful of ocean-going vessels per year to a resilient fleet able to support both peacetime commerce and wartime logistics. He highlights how allies such as South Korea and Japan can bring capital, technology, and best practices to U.S. shipyards while expanded training pipelines build the welders, skilled trades, and merchant mariners needed to crew and maintain a larger fleet.​

The conversation also explores why the U.S. Coast Guard may be one of Washington’s most powerful but underutilized tools in countering China’s “gray-zone” activities, from illegal fishing to coercive law-enforcement-style operations far from China’s own shores. By combining Coast Guard authorities with new legislation and deeper capacity-building for regional partners, Young argues the U.S. can deter escalation, protect vital ocean resources, and help Indo-Pacific nations enforce their own laws in their own waters.​

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In this episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso welcome Peter Mattis, President of the Jamestown Foundation and former CIA analyst, to dissect the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) "political warfare" against Taiwan. Mattis argues this is not merely diplomatic maneuvering, but "United Front work playing out on a global scale" - a comprehensive campaign to reshape the international order by recreating China’s domestic political controls abroad.​

War by Other Means

Mattis grounds the political warfare concept in George Kennan’s Cold War definition: the logical application of Clausewitz's doctrine in peacetime. For Beijing, unification is a political objective requiring total control over Taiwan’s social, economic, and political life - goals that military force alone cannot secure. The CCP seeks to "pull in" global interests, ensuring they are mediated through Beijing rather than through alliances or international law.​

The View from Taiwan

For the Taiwanese, this warfare is felt on a spectrum. It ranges from the overt "gray zone" harassment of military aircraft and sand dredgers to the psychological grinding of CCP-aligned media narratives. These narratives are designed to paint the U.S. as unreliable and unification as inevitable. Mattis specifically highlights the corrosive effect of espionage, noting that every spy scandal erodes the critical trust necessary for Taiwan’s own bureaucracy and its security partners.​

United Front: A Global Dragnet

A key mechanism discussed is the "Council for the Promotion of the Peaceful Reunification of China," which operates chapters globally, including in the U.S. and the Philippines. Mattis explains how these groups mobilize diaspora communities, often hijacking the voices of pragmatic businesspeople, to influence local politicians. He cites the recent indictment of former New York state official Linda Sun as a prime example of how these influence operations effectively bury engagement with Taiwan inside democratic institutions without leaving a public trace.​

The Japan Example & Global Signaling

When Japan’s Prime Minister recently called a Taiwan contingency an "existential threat," China responded with fierce rhetoric and economic coercion. Mattis explains this reaction was double-edged: it aimed to punish Tokyo, but also served as a signal to the "Malaysias and Indonesias" of the region. The message is clear: if Beijing can inflict pain on a major power like Japan, smaller nations should fear the consequences of stepping out of line.​

The Democratic Deficit

Why do democracies struggle to push back? Mattis argues our institutions are too siloed: the military ignores non-kinetic threats, diplomats fear rocking the boat, and law enforcement is jurisdiction-bound. China exploits these seams to operate without consequence. Mattis suggests democracies must stop looking for "symmetric" responses - which often don't exist - and instead pursue asymmetric, disproportionate measures to re-establish deterrence and uncertainty for Beijing.​

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In this special live pod, Ray and Jim were joined by two distinguished guests: Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. Together, they unpack China's escalating diplomatic offensive against Japan following PM Sanae Takaichi's recent statements about Taiwan.​

What Sparked the Crisis

Ep. 114 centers on Takaichi's remarks in the Japanese Diet, where she responded to a hypothetical question about a Taiwan blockade scenario. She stated that if China imposed a blockade around Taiwan and the U.S. intervened, Japan could classify the situation as an "existence-threatening situation" under its national security legislation-potentially allowing deployment of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Shingo emphasized this was not a policy change but a restatement of Japan's longstanding legal framework established a decade ago. Nevertheless, Beijing has reacted fiercely, labeling her comments an "unacceptable intervention" in China's domestic affairs.​

China's Strategic Calculus

Bonnie explained that China's strong reaction stems from multiple factors: Xi Jinping's perceived loss of face after meeting Takaichi at the APEC summit, the 80th anniversary of WW2 amplifying anti-Japanese narratives, and concerns about Japan's military buildup in its Southwest Islands. China's broader message, she notes, is "kill the chicken to scare the monkey"-punishing Japan to deter other nations from challenging Beijing's red lines on Taiwan. China is also testing whether the United States will stand firmly behind its allies, seeking to drive wedges in the U.S.-Japan and other alliances.​

The Stakes for Japan and the Region

Shingo underscored Taiwan's vital strategic importance to Japan. If Taiwan falls under CCP control, the entire East China Sea would become contested territory, potentially forcing U.S. forces to retreat from Okinawa and fundamentally weakening Japan's defense posture. As former Prime Minister Abe famously stated: "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency." Shingo also discussed the shocking details about a Chinese consul general's social media post threatening that Takaichi's "dirty neck will be chopped off"-unprecedented diplomatic intimidation that has only strengthened Japanese public support for the new prime minister, whose approval ratings have surged into the mid-70s.​

The One China Policy vs. One China Principle

The discussion clarifies a critical distinction often misunderstood: The U.S. "One China policy" and those of other Western nations are fundamentally different from China's "One China principle." Neither the U.S. nor Japan has ever agreed that Taiwan is part of China-they merely "acknowledged" or "understood and respected" Beijing's position. China is now aggressively pushing countries to abandon their individual policies and adopt its principle, which holds Taiwan as an "inalienable" part of China.​

Looking Ahead

Both guests anticipate a prolonged chill in China-Japan relations. However, Shingo noted that China's economic vulnerabilities limit its coercion options-Beijing needs Japanese investment for its struggling economy. If Takaichi maintains her popularity and secures a strong political mandate, China may eventually be forced to engage with her government, as it did with the long-serving Abe administration. Glaser warns that China sees opportunity in a perceived U.S. decline and will continue pressuring allied coalitions, making unity among democratic partners more essential than ever.​

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