Erich Schaffer critiques the “super greenhouse effect” and argues that tropical outgoing longwave radiation stays flat mainly because tropospheric temperature is sluggish relative to surface temperature, not because water vapor amplifies greenhouse trapping. He says regional and seasonal proxies for water vapor feedback are invalid (citing admissions by Ramanathan/Inamdar and Dessler et al.) and claims interannual proxy results are distorted by aspect-ratio choices and improper OLS regression, advocating TLS or rotated-benchmark methods. Reanalyzing published plots (Spencer, Lindzen-Choi, Chung, Andy May), he concludes water vapor plus lapse rate implies strong negative feedback and low ECS (~1 K). He also alleges data “fudging” and broader scientific incompetence.

00:00 Super Greenhouse Effect

02:20 OLR Calculations Explained

03:28 Troposphere Sluggishness

05:32 Ramanathan Admission

10:23 Feedback Breakdown Math

12:37 Two Proxies Debunked

14:05 Revisiting Interannual Proxy

16:02 Bad Regression Plotting

17:16 Aspect Ratio Distortion

23:45 OLS vs TLS Regression

30:53 Negative Feedback Emerges

33:22 Spencer Regression Mystery

37:45 Lindzen Choi Critique

41:03 Fixing Lindzen Plot

51:17 Recent Andy May Example

53:21 Rotate Plot Method

55:19 Benchmark Slope Trick

57:38 Questionable Outliers

01:01:26 Proxies Fall Apart

01:02:22 Lapse Rate Physics

01:05:45 Tropical Hotspot Feedback

01:11:10 AR6 Codependency Critique

01:14:24 MODTRAN Water Vapor Test

01:19:44 Emission Altitudes Explained

01:25:22 Net Feedback and ECS

01:27:17 Blunders and Sociology

01:40:54 Q&A and Takeaway

01:44:44 Bonus Coal Math Error

01:47:42 Wrap Up

Erich Schaffer: “Water Vapor Feedback, Part One”: https://youtu.be/2O4mOf9gk-s

https://x.com/erich_schaffer

https://greenhousedefect.com/

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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries

My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Tom interviews Anika Sweetland, who argues Earth’s climate changes in predictable natural cycles and that today is relatively cool in a 65‑million‑year context. Using graphs and books by Gregory Wrightstone, she describes ice-age rhythms linked to Milankovitch cycles and 1,500‑year Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, including the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, and claims solar activity and cosmic rays better correlate with temperature than CO2. She says the IPCC smooths data and governments use fear for control, while net-zero policies are wasteful and geoengineering in the UK is concerning. Sweetland recounts university climate studies as CO2-focused indoctrination, discusses backlash and support online, and previews a part two on the IPCC.

00:00 Meet Anika Sweetland

04:40 Ice Ages and Long Cooling

07:18 Milankovitch Cycles Explained

09:14 Dansgaard Oeschger Cycles

11:04 Medieval Warmth and Little Ice Age

14:01 Sun Cosmic Rays and Clouds

18:21 CO2 Claims and Propaganda

21:07 Her Climate Degree Experience

23:22 Education Debate and Models

27:47 Conference Disruption and Activism

30:34 Social Media Pushback

34:54 Part Two and Wrap Up

35:22 Energy Policy and Geoengineering

39:18 Final Thanks and Goodbye

https://x.com/anika_climate

The 16th International Conference on Climate Change: https://climateconference.heartland.org/

Anika on being bombarded with global warming propaganda: https://x.com/anika_climate/status/2037550091544785239

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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries

My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1

Joseph Fournier discusses his Substack article proposing a “solar-driven glacial atmospheric dipole” to explain the Last Glacial Maximum contrast between ice-covered North Atlantic regions and ice-free Beringia. He reviews Milankovitch cycles, zonal vs meridional winds, ITCZ migration, Holocene aridity/desert formation around 4,200 years ago, and Neoglacial solar sensitivity. He focuses on how solar variability (UV, interplanetary magnetic field, energetic particle precipitation, cosmic rays) affects stratospheric polar vortices and couples to tropospheric indices (NAO, SAM), influencing clouds, sunshine, ocean circulation (AMO/AMOC), and glaciers, citing proxy reconstructions and Bond events. They also address the Atlantic “cold blob” freshwater argument and farming implications.

00:00 Beringia Glacial Mystery

02:35 Dedication and Wind Focus

06:08 Holocene ITCZ Shifts

10:21 Deserts and Neoglacial Questions

15:02 Milankovitch Limits

17:22 Zonal vs Meridional Flow

22:09 Southern Annular Mode Basics

25:12 SAM Impacts and Ocean Carbon

28:48 Cloud Belts and Brightening

34:32 SAM History and Solar Minima

38:12 Polar Vortex Coupling

40:17 Solar Magnetism Explained

45:18 GCRs and Stratosphere Temps

52:01 Sunspots vs Hurricane Power

56:01 EPP Ozone and Aurora Link

58:36 Solar System Harmonics

01:01:02 Solar Wobble Link

01:02:34 Jupiter Quakes Core

01:06:41 Zonal vs Meridional

01:11:32 NAO SPV Coupling

01:14:21 Bond Events Framework

01:17:42 Ice Rafted Debris

01:25:26 Greenland Melt Drivers

01:30:38 AMO Gulf Stream THC

01:37:10 Cosmogenic Isotope Cycles

01:42:34 Glacial Dipole Conclusion

01:45:46 Atlantic Cold Blob

01:49:13 Farming Outlook Wrap

https://x.com/JosephF55175005

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Slides, summaries, references, and transcripts of my podcasts: https://tomn.substack.com/p/podcast-summaries

My Linktree: https://linktr.ee/tomanelson1