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  • When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply

    When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply
    2025/11/18
    Milk production is up 4.2% year over year, components are climbing and prices are falling. As holiday orders wrap up and we head into the long winter, The Milk Check team digs into whether dairy markets have already found a floor, or if there’s still another leg down to go. With milk products everywhere (except for whey), the Jacoby team shares where the market is and where we’re going. They churn through: Butter at $1.50 and what heavy cream and higher components mean after the holidays Why cheese feels like a calm before the storm, and how far Class III could grind lower Nonfat and skim: long milk, growing inventories and buyers shopping the cheapest origin Why whey proteins are the outlier, with tight supply, strong demand and GLP-1 tailwinds Global milk growth, clustered demand (Ramadan, Chinese New Year, Super Bowl) and who blinks first between the U.S. and Europe In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Joe Maixner, Jacob Menge, Diego Carvallo, Josh White and Mike Brown for a rapid-fire market session on butter, cheese, nonfat and proteins. Listen now for The Milk Check’s latest market read on butter, cheese, nonfat and whey. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome back, everybody, to The Milk Check podcast. Today we're gonna have a market discussion. It is November 10th. We are in the last couple of weeks of the quote-unquote busy season, starting to get a feel for what we think is gonna happen to dairy markets as holiday orders are filled, and we transition into the long-term period of the year. In the last few weeks, we've actually seen prices drop, but it feels like butter's kind of dropped down to about a $1.50/lb and seems to find at least a brief floor. We'll talk to Joe and find out if Joe thinks we're gonna stick around here for a while. The cheese market was up in the $1.80s/lb. It's dropped to a little below $1.70, starting to hit a little bit of resistance. Jake will share with us a little bit about what we think is happening with cheese going forward. Nonfat dropped a little bit down to [00:01:00], about what Diego, about a $1.10/lb and had a little bounce off its floor. Meanwhile, the whey complex just continues to go up. We'll check in with Josh and find out what's going on there. Well, let's go ahead and start with milk production. We just got released today, the September milk production, and it says it's up 4.2%, which is a very, very big number. It's November; milk is longer than it usually is this time of year. Usually, it's quite tight, and it's not quite tight, but I wouldn't call it long. However, all the signs are there that once we get past the fall holiday order season, milk could get quite long. If September milk is up 4.2%, I think it's safe to say that if that continues, we will be quite long milk as we transition from the typical seasonal tightness of the fall into the winter and the flush of the spring. 4.2% is a big number, and that's not even taking into account the fact that the solids in the milk are up as well. That's not the kind of tone that a dairy farmer wants us to set as we're talking about what supply and demand looks like, but there's a lot of milk out there, [00:02:00] Joe, does that mean there's a lot of butter out there, too? Joe Maixner: Well, there's still a lot of butter out there; sounds like there's going to be a lot more butter coming soon. If milk's up 4%, cream was heavy all of last winter and into last Spring, extremely heavy. If we have higher components, more milk, and we've got a full amount of milk coming outta California as well after coming off of bird flu last year, there's just gonna be that much more cream in the system and more getting pushed back into the churns. So, it's a very good possibility that we're gonna go even lower than where we currently are. ...
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    26 分
  • Bears in Butter. Bulls in Protein.

    Bears in Butter. Bulls in Protein.
    2025/10/17
    Butter’s slipping, cheese feels heavy, but the protein complex is flexing hard. In this Milk Check market roundtable, Ted Jacoby III brings together Diego Carvallo, Jacob Menge, Joe Maixner and Josh White to unpack what’s driving the mixed messages in the markets. Listen to hear: Why butter could fall below $1.50 before year-end How global health trends are powering whey protein demand Why cheese exports are getting harder to move Whether dairy’s bearish mood could trigger a short squeeze It’s a classic Milk Check market roundtable. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 86: Bears in Butter, Bulls in Protein. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Hey everybody, welcome to The Milk Check. We're gonna have an old-fashioned market discussion today. We've got a lot going on in dairy markets right now. It's the middle of October. Markets are moving, but not in the direction that they usually move in October. It seems like everything wants to go down right now, and we'll start with the product that seems to be most bearish today, the one we've been talking about a lot lately. Joe, what is going on with butter? Joe Maixner: Butter is interesting today because we're actually up. Long-term Sentiment really hasn't changed. There's not really a whole lot new to talk about on the butter. Markets aren't linear, so we're gonna have these choppy trades here and there where some buying comes in and things get pushed. But there's plenty of butter still out there. There's plenty of butter being offered out there. Right now, there's a good amount of demand, but we're anticipating that that's fairly short-lived. We've got [00:01:00] holiday demand for another couple of weeks here, and then that should probably tail off. We'll see what happens after that. Ted Jacoby III: So we're a $1.60 and a $1.65 today. It's Friday, October 10th. Felt like a little bit of a dead cat bounce after really dropping pretty hard earlier in the week. Is that what it is? Is it a dead cat bounce? Joe Maixner: I wouldn't call a quarter of a cent on spot a dead cat bounce. The moves on the futures are 3¢ to 5¢ moves with a 10¢ plus move intraday. There's no shortage of volatility. Ted Jacoby III: What do you think will be happening in the next month? You think maybe we'll bounce off this, go up a little bit for the next couple of weeks? Then all the orders that need to get filled for the holidays get filled? And then what? Joe Maixner: I think we take another leg lower. I think we'll be sub $1.50 before the end of the year. Ted Jacoby III: I agree. We're at prices so low that a year ago it would've been really hard to imagine we'd ever get here. And the idea that we could even go lower from here just seems unbelievable, but that's the market we're in right now. Joe Maixner: Less than 24 months ago, we were all talking about $4 butter [00:02:00] coming, and there was not enough fat to keep up with demand. And now we're potentially going to the $1.40s. There's so much fat that we can't consume it all. But we also have to remember that this is all cyclical, and at some point, these low prices are gonna cure the low prices. Ted Jacoby III: Meanwhile, let's talk a little bit about protein. The more bearish we get on butter, the more bullish the protein markets seem to get. What's going on in the protein markets right now? Josh White: I think we gotta define which we're talking about with protein because if it's protein with over 34% protein, it's pretty hard to find, particularly with the whey proteins. If it's 34% or under, most unstandardized non-fat dry milk is quite a bit above 34%, so maybe let's say 40%, it seems like we can't find a bottom. So, really, two very different markets at the moment. So,
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    21 分
  • Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group

    Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group
    2025/10/09
    Does perfect weather mean bad news for dairy? In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team welcome guests from Cefetra Dairy, Henk-Jan Bouwman, Head of Account Management; Martijn Goedhart, Managing Director; and Veljko Perovic, Commodity Market Analyst and Derivatives Trader. Together, we unpack why the world is swimming in butter and what it means for producers, traders and processors heading into 2026. You’ll hear: Why too much 80% salted has the U.S. sloshing in inventory How Europe went from record highs to €2,000-per-ton losses When demand might finally catch up with supply Click play below and listen now to The Milk Check episode 84: Swimming in Butter – Global Insights from Cefetra Group. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. We have a really exciting episode today. We are going to be discussing the U.S. and European butter markets and how that's going to affect global butter supply, global butter demand, and obviously price. We are joined today by our good friends from Cefetra Dairy. We've got Martijn, Henk-Jan, and Veljko from Cefetra Dairy. Really looking forward to this discussion. Joe, we're gonna start with you. What's going on with the U.S. butter market? We've just dropped in the last two months, what, 60, 70¢? I feel like the bottom just dropped out. What's been driving this, and how's this gonna play out going forward? Joe Maixner: Well, long story short, there's too much 80% salted sitting in inventories, both in trader's hands and in manufacturer's hands. There was a lot of product built earlier in the year when there was a great carry in the market [00:01:00] and when cream was plentiful. All of that product is coming back to the market because cream is still plentiful and manufacturers aren't needing it for micro fixing. Demand has been good, but not great. Ted Jacoby III: Is it safe to say that even if we're having good butter demand in the U.S. right now, it doesn't compare to the increase in supply we're dealing with? Joe Maixner: Absolutely. We're so much higher year over year on fat component and milk production that we just physically can't consume as much butter as we're producing. Ted Jacoby III: Mike Brown, my question for you is this, we've come down from $3.50 two years ago, $2.50 earlier this year, now we're at a $1.75. We've talked a lot about on this program how the genetics have dairy cows producing a lot more butterfat than they have in years past, and that's a trend that has really changed the supply side dynamic for butterfat in the U.S. At a $1.75, does that trend change? Mike Brown: The genetic trend of course won't change 'cause it's permanent . People have been making decisions to improve fat content of milk for a long, long time. It's been [00:02:00] emphasized because of the high value of fat. And so it's already built into not only the current dairy herd, but the animals that will be replacements over the next two or three years. On the feeding side, that's another story, but most folks I talk to say a $1.50, $1.70 fat probably isn't gonna make a lot of change in feeding and management on a dairy farm. You may see some of those higher expensive fat additives that are used to increase fat used a little less heavily, but the trend overall will be there. Will the rate of gain continue to be as high? I think is a good question, but I don't think the trend toward gaining fat's gonna change certainly in the next two, three years. Ted Jacoby III: So, this is a question for both Mike and Gus. One of the rumors I've heard is that there have been some raw milk buyers out there who have been talking about putting caps on butter,
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    31 分
  • Shining Star or Shooting Star: WPC 80 and WPI

    Shining Star or Shooting Star: WPC 80 and WPI
    2025/10/02
    Butter is down. Powder is heavy. Cheese is struggling. But whey proteins? They’re the shining star. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III sits down with Josh White, Gus Jacoby, Diego Carvallo, and Jacob Menge to break down what’s really moving the dairy market this fall. We cover: Why WPC 80 and whey protein isolate remain in tight supply How weak butter, powder, and cheese are reshaping herd economics What today’s demand means for dairy markets heading into 2026 They’re the shining star now, but can whey proteins hold at $10/lb without burning out? Listen now to hear Jacoby’s take on what’s in the stars for dairy this year and beyond. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to the September edition of the Jacoby Market discussion on our Milk Check podcast. Today, we've got Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group. We've got my brother Gus to talk about what's going on with milk, cream, and UF milk. We have Diego Carvallo on our international business and nonfat business teams. And then we got Jacob Menge with risk management and trading strategy. So, Gus, let's go ahead and start with you. It's September. This is usually the time of year when everybody is shipping a lot of milk into the Southeast. How do things look in milk, and what's going on in cheese and UF right now? Gus Jacoby: Certainly, Ted, milk has gotten tight as it typically does this time of year. I wouldn't say, though, relatively speaking, for mid-September that we're all that tight. Obviously, milk production reports have been up recently; there's more milk than we had last year. Yes, we've added processing capacity in [00:01:00] certain regions of the country, like the western portion of the upper Midwest, and, of course, the Southwest. However, in many areas, early fall tightness does exist. But it's a bit longer than last year. Where we really need to look at, though, is the component area and some of the products, such as sweet cream. That's certainly very long. We know about butterfat being much higher today than it was just a couple of years ago. And I would say the cream markets, which typically in early fall draw some pretty high multiples, those multiples are tempered to a fair amount. Cream can be had at a time when it is typically tough to find. So, there's no doubt that what we're seeing out in the marketplace, and I would say from coast to coast, is more cream than what we're used to. And certainly, more of a buyer's market in the fall than it ever has been, at least in the history of the industry that I've seen. Now, on the flip side, the protein markets are a bit interesting. I wanna let Josh speak on the powder side, but we are seeing that UF milk is having a strong comeback. People need protein, whether it be for fortification [00:02:00] needs and natural cheese, whether it be for health and wellness shakes, whether it be for what have you. That product is getting a lot of attention. And certainly, the one area that I'm seeing this fall that's got some tightness to it. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, what are you seeing on the protein side in your neck of the woods? Is what Gus is seeing with UF milk translating all the way over into dried proteins? Josh White: The most interesting of the product categories right now and the one gaining the most attention is in the whey protein sector. We're feeling pressure across a lot of the storable dairy products right now, but the one that remains very tight are the WPCs, in particular WPC 80 and whey protein isolate. The storyline hasn't changed a whole lot from prior discussions. We went into the year, and there was some trade disruption that masked how tight the market was. We knew a lot of capacity was coming online thi...
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    34 分
  • The $1,000 Calf: Why Beef Matters on the Dairy Farm

    The $1,000 Calf: Why Beef Matters on the Dairy Farm
    2025/08/26
    Are you leaving calf money on the table? Not long ago, a Holstein bull calf might have earned you 50 bucks, if that. Today, thanks to high beef prices and better breeding tools, that same cow might deliver a $1,000 calf instead. Beef-on-dairy isn’t just a trend; it’s changing how progressive dairies manage their herds and drive revenue. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III talks with CoBank’s Corey Geiger and Abbigail Prins about how dairy farmers are rethinking breeding strategies and how those decisions are reshaping herd structure, replacement numbers, and profitability. Why some farms are holding onto cows longer How sexed semen and genomics are guiding breeding calls And how beef calves are becoming a serious income stream Whether you're breeding for replacements, premiums or profit, this episode unpacks how to make herd decisions that pay. Listen now to hear why the value of a cow’s uterus might be higher than ever. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Intro (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to this month's version of the Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. Really excited today to have two special guests from CoBank, Corey Geiger and Abbi Prins. We are going to talk about breeding to beef and the profitability of the dairy farm, and how that dairy farm profitability has changed over the years as this trend has come about, and what it means for the future of dairy. Excited to have this conversation, Corey, Abbi, thank you so much for joining us today. So Corey, what do you do? Corey Geiger: CoBank is actually short for cooperative banks, so we're the bank of cooperatives. We're part of the Farm Credit System. Abbi and I are part of the knowledge exchange division, so we have a group of 10 economists who work in dairy and animal protein, consumer package goods, digital infrastructure, and farm inputs and crops. I've been at CoBank for two years now. I have just started my third year with CoBank, and Abbi joined our team about a year ago. She can tell you a little bit about herself. Abbigail Prins: Thanks, Corey. I also joined CoBank about a year and a half ago. I helped cover the dairy and animal protein sectors, come from a very heavy dairy and agriculture background, originally from Tulare, California, based out of Minnesota now. We're excited to be on the podcast with you today, so thank you for the invitation. Ted Jacoby III: Abbi, Corey, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. So our topic today is going to be about breeding to beef and the dairy farm profitability, and how the whole breeding to beef trend has been affecting dairy farm profitability. Give us a little background on this trend of how more and more dairy farmers are breeding dairy cows in order to get cows to enter the dairy herd. More and more dairy farmers are breeding to beef and how is that affecting the dairy breed right now? Corey Geiger: I have a broad background, having been in the editorial team of Hoard's Dairyman for 28 years and a past president of Holstein USA, and this is a journey. It really involves a triple play. The first part of that triple play was gender sorted semen coming onto the scene. Then genomics came on the scene, and then it all kind of came together with the beef on dairy movement. Now, economics always enters the equation because if I were to come back and have a conversation with my late grandfathers and say, "We're breeding some of our prize Holsteins to Angus," they'd throw me out the window, thinking I fell on my head. But gender sorted semen came along.
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    38 分
  • From Summer Heat to School Coolers: The August Milk Shuffle

    From Summer Heat to School Coolers: The August Milk Shuffle
    2025/08/13
    The school bells are ringing in some changes for milk. Are you ready? Tune in to The Milk Check as the Jacoby team churns through the latest supply and demand dynamics in the August milk market, including: Why the usual summer heat dip in milk production feels normal, despite 3.3% higher year-over-year numbers Why cheese prices are holding steady and how New Zealand’s production could impact exports Why protein products are powering ahead with strong domestic and international demand Why nonfat dry milk remains stuck in a flat market Whether you’re a farmer, processor, or trader, tune in to The Milk Check to learn where we are and where we’re headed as we head into the holiday season. Click below to listen to The Milk Check episode 81: From Summer Heat to School Coolers. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to The Milk Check. We're recording this particular podcast on August 5, 2025. We're having a classic market discussion today, and with us are Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group; Greg Sheer, who heads up our milk marketing group; Mike Brown of Jacoby dairy market intelligence; Tristan Suellentrop, and me. We're gonna just quickly speed through all the products and talk a little bit about what the demand and supply looks like as we transition from the heat of the summer into the fall. This time of year, what we're usually watching: the weather is hot, milk is starting to get a little bit tight, and then school starts up in a couple of weeks, so the bottling plants start needing more milk. We start shipping milk to the Southeast, and that tends to start a progression of tightness, not only in the milk supply, but in the supply of all dairy products as we get into the fall and the holiday season. So, we'll go ahead and start with Greg. Hey, Greg, can you tell us a little bit about what's going on with milk right now? Greg Scheer: We do see seasonally tightening milk supply. Production has been hit by the summer heat like it usually does. Maybe a little more heat in the Northeast than normal. We're seeing that in the Mideast and Midwest and all the way into the South and Southeast. We have some comments from some of our producers that maybe a little bit older cow herd has caused the heat to be a little more significant than normal. But we don't see an overabundance of that normal seasonal weakness in milk production. We're seeing solid demand, and we're starting to see a draw to the Southeast as schools will be starting up soon in the South and moving North when the schools start. So, that filling of the pipeline is going to really tighten the market, as it normally does seasonally at this time. So, tight spot markets and premiums throughout the Northeast, Mideast, and Midwest. We have the normal heat in the Southwest. Maybe a little less than usual in California, in the very west, but seasonally we're trending where we typically are this time of year, and we're about to get to the tightest time of the year when schools start to fill that pipeline for the school milk. So, expect firm spot market prices going forward. Even though production may bounce back a little from recent heat as we move into the end of August and September, depending on the weather this month. Ted Jacoby III: The Milk Production Report for June said we were up 3.3%. Does it really feel like we're up that much in a lot of the parts of the country, Greg, where we've got milk, or does it just feel like a classic deep summer transition into fall tightness? Greg Scheer: It felt like that in June that we were up that much. It doesn't feel like that now, which is normal. We had a heat wave in June, all of a sudden it went from being kind of cool and rainy to a hot spell that kind of kicked ...
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    20 分
  • The Ozempic and GLP-1 shockwave hitting U.S. dairy

    The Ozempic and GLP-1 shockwave hitting U.S. dairy
    2025/08/01
    GLP-1s like Ozempic and Wegovy are changing how Americans eat, and that has big implications for the dairy industry. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III welcomes Paul Ziemnisky, leader of nutrition and industry growth platforms at Dairy Management Inc., and Dr. Chris Cifelli, vice president of nutrition research for the National Dairy Council. Together with the Jacoby team, they unpack what GLP-1 appetite-suppressing drugs mean for dairy demand, and how our industry can win. We cover: How GLP-1s suppress hunger and how dairy’s fat + protein combo supports satiety How protein quality matters more than ever, and why dairy still leads the pack How R&D teams are turning classic dairy products into high-protein, low-sugar solutions From gut health to GLP-1 support, this episode dives deep into one of the most important trends shaping dairy today. Join us for The Milk Check episode 81: The Ozempic and GLP-1 shockwave hitting U.S. dairy. Intro with music: Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co, where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Hello, everybody, and welcome to the Milk Check. Excited to be here today. In addition to our usual suspects, Josh White, Mike Brown, and my brother guest, Jacoby. We've got two special guests today. We have Paul Ziemnisky, leader for nutrition and product science, technology, innovation and industry growth platforms at Dairy Management Inc. Again, we have Dr. Chris Cifelli, vice president of nutrition research for the National Dairy Council. Guys, thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you for taking time out of your busy days to talk about GLP-1s and how it's affecting the dairy industry. We really appreciate it. What are GLP-1s and why are they good for dairy? Dr. Chris Cifelli: I'll start with what they are and then Paul can talk about the consumer point of view. One of the key things whenever we eat food is that feeling of satiety, the feeling of fullness we get during a meal and then the satiation that occurs between meals until we get those body cues again that we're hungry and we want to eat. Unfortunately, in the environment we're in with stress and different factors, our body is a lot off schedule, so we tend to eat a lot more than we may need to on a daily basis. What GLP's are, glucagon like peptide is the official name, it's an appetite suppressant. So, when you eat and especially when you eat fat and protein, the body will release GLP-1 naturally, and that's what starts making you feel full. What these pharmaceuticals are, are ways to keep the levels of GLP-1 up in your body so you feel less hungry throughout the day more naturally. And what that's going to do is you're not going to snack quite as much. You're not going to have those cravings maybe for sweet salty snacks during the day. But with that appetite suppressant, it means that every calorie really then matters when you're eating throughout the day, and that's really where dairy can win. Paul Ziemnisky: To build on that, what it means for dairy is, I think Chris used two magic words, fat and protein. I think fat's been vilified since this early '70s, late '60s, and we've put a lot of effort in investment in proving the value of fat, especially dairy fats. I think you're going to see in the next six months, the acceleration of an acceptance of fat into things like the dietary guidelines and other uses. And the protein side of the equation, we've got the highest quality protein by far. We've got science behind the highest quality proteins and the efficacy of that. And then by the way, consumers, when they purchase anything, taste is number one factor. So, when you look at taste, price, value, health and wellness, we deliver on all those three sweet spots for that consumer. And so, you see things like yogurt on fire because of that,
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    34 分
  • Bienvenida, Ruth: fortaleciendo a Jacoby en Latinoamérica

    Bienvenida, Ruth: fortaleciendo a Jacoby en Latinoamérica
    2025/07/23
    En este episodio de The Milk Check, le damos la bienvenida a Ruth Aragon al equipo de Jacoby, quien se une a sus colegas de muchos años, Miguel y Yara. Es una reunión basada en décadas de experiencia, relaciones sólidas y un enfoque compartido: fortalecer la presencia de Jacoby en toda Latinoamérica. Acompáñanos mientras el equipo analiza: Cambios en los patrones comerciales y el crecimiento de las exportaciones de queso en México, Centroamérica y Sudamérica Por qué más compradores en Latinoamérica están optando por importaciones directas — y qué significa eso para los productos lácteos estadounidenses Dinámicas de mercado: desde la incertidumbre arancelaria hasta la volatilidad climática Un apetito creciente por las proteínas lácteas en toda la región Desde leche fluida hasta productos terminados, Ruth aporta una experiencia que abarca toda la cadena de suministro. Juntos, este equipo ampliado está listo para ofrecer más valor a los clientes de la región. No te pierdas el episodio 80 de The Milk Check: Bienvenida, Ruth: fortaleciendo a Jacoby en Latinoamérica.
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    15 分