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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

著者： T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders
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 Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers. 経済学
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  • Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group

    Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group
    2025/10/09
    Does perfect weather mean bad news for dairy? In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team welcome guests from Cefetra Dairy, Henk-Jan Bouwman, Head of Account Management; Martijn Goedhart, Managing Director; and Veljko Perovic, Commodity Market Analyst and Derivatives Trader. Together, we unpack why the world is swimming in butter and what it means for producers, traders and processors heading into 2026. You’ll hear: Why too much 80% salted has the U.S. sloshing in inventory How Europe went from record highs to €2,000-per-ton losses When demand might finally catch up with supply Click play below and listen now to The Milk Check episode 84: Swimming in Butter – Global Insights from Cefetra Group. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. We have a really exciting episode today. We are going to be discussing the U.S. and European butter markets and how that's going to affect global butter supply, global butter demand, and obviously price. We are joined today by our good friends from Cefetra Dairy. We've got Martijn, Henk-Jan, and Veljko from Cefetra Dairy. Really looking forward to this discussion. Joe, we're gonna start with you. What's going on with the U.S. butter market? We've just dropped in the last two months, what, 60, 70¢? I feel like the bottom just dropped out. What's been driving this, and how's this gonna play out going forward? Joe Maixner: Well, long story short, there's too much 80% salted sitting in inventories, both in trader's hands and in manufacturer's hands. There was a lot of product built earlier in the year when there was a great carry in the market [00:01:00] and when cream was plentiful. All of that product is coming back to the market because cream is still plentiful and manufacturers aren't needing it for micro fixing. Demand has been good, but not great. Ted Jacoby III: Is it safe to say that even if we're having good butter demand in the U.S. right now, it doesn't compare to the increase in supply we're dealing with? Joe Maixner: Absolutely. We're so much higher year over year on fat component and milk production that we just physically can't consume as much butter as we're producing. Ted Jacoby III: Mike Brown, my question for you is this, we've come down from $3.50 two years ago, $2.50 earlier this year, now we're at a $1.75. We've talked a lot about on this program how the genetics have dairy cows producing a lot more butterfat than they have in years past, and that's a trend that has really changed the supply side dynamic for butterfat in the U.S. At a $1.75, does that trend change? Mike Brown: The genetic trend of course won't change 'cause it's permanent . People have been making decisions to improve fat content of milk for a long, long time. It's been [00:02:00] emphasized because of the high value of fat. And so it's already built into not only the current dairy herd, but the animals that will be replacements over the next two or three years. On the feeding side, that's another story, but most folks I talk to say a $1.50, $1.70 fat probably isn't gonna make a lot of change in feeding and management on a dairy farm. You may see some of those higher expensive fat additives that are used to increase fat used a little less heavily, but the trend overall will be there. Will the rate of gain continue to be as high? I think is a good question, but I don't think the trend toward gaining fat's gonna change certainly in the next two, three years. Ted Jacoby III: So, this is a question for both Mike and Gus. One of the rumors I've heard is that there have been some raw milk buyers out there who have been talking about putting caps on butter,
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    31 分
  • Shining Star or Shooting Star: WPC 80 and WPI

    Shining Star or Shooting Star: WPC 80 and WPI
    2025/10/02
    Butter is down. Powder is heavy. Cheese is struggling. But whey proteins? They’re the shining star. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III sits down with Josh White, Gus Jacoby, Diego Carvallo, and Jacob Menge to break down what’s really moving the dairy market this fall. We cover: Why WPC 80 and whey protein isolate remain in tight supply How weak butter, powder, and cheese are reshaping herd economics What today’s demand means for dairy markets heading into 2026 They’re the shining star now, but can whey proteins hold at $10/lb without burning out? Listen now to hear Jacoby’s take on what’s in the stars for dairy this year and beyond. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome, everybody, to the September edition of the Jacoby Market discussion on our Milk Check podcast. Today, we've got Josh White, head of our dairy ingredients group. We've got my brother Gus to talk about what's going on with milk, cream, and UF milk. We have Diego Carvallo on our international business and nonfat business teams. And then we got Jacob Menge with risk management and trading strategy. So, Gus, let's go ahead and start with you. It's September. This is usually the time of year when everybody is shipping a lot of milk into the Southeast. How do things look in milk, and what's going on in cheese and UF right now? Gus Jacoby: Certainly, Ted, milk has gotten tight as it typically does this time of year. I wouldn't say, though, relatively speaking, for mid-September that we're all that tight. Obviously, milk production reports have been up recently; there's more milk than we had last year. Yes, we've added processing capacity in [00:01:00] certain regions of the country, like the western portion of the upper Midwest, and, of course, the Southwest. However, in many areas, early fall tightness does exist. But it's a bit longer than last year. Where we really need to look at, though, is the component area and some of the products, such as sweet cream. That's certainly very long. We know about butterfat being much higher today than it was just a couple of years ago. And I would say the cream markets, which typically in early fall draw some pretty high multiples, those multiples are tempered to a fair amount. Cream can be had at a time when it is typically tough to find. So, there's no doubt that what we're seeing out in the marketplace, and I would say from coast to coast, is more cream than what we're used to. And certainly, more of a buyer's market in the fall than it ever has been, at least in the history of the industry that I've seen. Now, on the flip side, the protein markets are a bit interesting. I wanna let Josh speak on the powder side, but we are seeing that UF milk is having a strong comeback. People need protein, whether it be for fortification [00:02:00] needs and natural cheese, whether it be for health and wellness shakes, whether it be for what have you. That product is getting a lot of attention. And certainly, the one area that I'm seeing this fall that's got some tightness to it. Ted Jacoby III: Josh, what are you seeing on the protein side in your neck of the woods? Is what Gus is seeing with UF milk translating all the way over into dried proteins? Josh White: The most interesting of the product categories right now and the one gaining the most attention is in the whey protein sector. We're feeling pressure across a lot of the storable dairy products right now, but the one that remains very tight are the WPCs, in particular WPC 80 and whey protein isolate. The storyline hasn't changed a whole lot from prior discussions. We went into the year, and there was some trade disruption that masked how tight the market was. We knew a lot of capacity was coming online thi...
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    34 分
  • The $1,000 Calf: Why Beef Matters on the Dairy Farm

    The $1,000 Calf: Why Beef Matters on the Dairy Farm
    2025/08/26
    Are you leaving calf money on the table? Not long ago, a Holstein bull calf might have earned you 50 bucks, if that. Today, thanks to high beef prices and better breeding tools, that same cow might deliver a $1,000 calf instead. Beef-on-dairy isn’t just a trend; it’s changing how progressive dairies manage their herds and drive revenue. In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III talks with CoBank’s Corey Geiger and Abbigail Prins about how dairy farmers are rethinking breeding strategies and how those decisions are reshaping herd structure, replacement numbers, and profitability. Why some farms are holding onto cows longer How sexed semen and genomics are guiding breeding calls And how beef calves are becoming a serious income stream Whether you're breeding for replacements, premiums or profit, this episode unpacks how to make herd decisions that pay. Listen now to hear why the value of a cow’s uterus might be higher than ever. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Intro (with music): Welcome to the Milk Check, a podcast from T.C. Jacoby & Co., where we share market insights and analysis with dairy farmers in mind. Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to this month's version of the Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. Really excited today to have two special guests from CoBank, Corey Geiger and Abbi Prins. We are going to talk about breeding to beef and the profitability of the dairy farm, and how that dairy farm profitability has changed over the years as this trend has come about, and what it means for the future of dairy. Excited to have this conversation, Corey, Abbi, thank you so much for joining us today. So Corey, what do you do? Corey Geiger: CoBank is actually short for cooperative banks, so we're the bank of cooperatives. We're part of the Farm Credit System. Abbi and I are part of the knowledge exchange division, so we have a group of 10 economists who work in dairy and animal protein, consumer package goods, digital infrastructure, and farm inputs and crops. I've been at CoBank for two years now. I have just started my third year with CoBank, and Abbi joined our team about a year ago. She can tell you a little bit about herself. Abbigail Prins: Thanks, Corey. I also joined CoBank about a year and a half ago. I helped cover the dairy and animal protein sectors, come from a very heavy dairy and agriculture background, originally from Tulare, California, based out of Minnesota now. We're excited to be on the podcast with you today, so thank you for the invitation. Ted Jacoby III: Abbi, Corey, thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate it. So our topic today is going to be about breeding to beef and the dairy farm profitability, and how the whole breeding to beef trend has been affecting dairy farm profitability. Give us a little background on this trend of how more and more dairy farmers are breeding dairy cows in order to get cows to enter the dairy herd. More and more dairy farmers are breeding to beef and how is that affecting the dairy breed right now? Corey Geiger: I have a broad background, having been in the editorial team of Hoard's Dairyman for 28 years and a past president of Holstein USA, and this is a journey. It really involves a triple play. The first part of that triple play was gender sorted semen coming onto the scene. Then genomics came on the scene, and then it all kind of came together with the beef on dairy movement. Now, economics always enters the equation because if I were to come back and have a conversation with my late grandfathers and say, "We're breeding some of our prize Holsteins to Angus," they'd throw me out the window, thinking I fell on my head. But gender sorted semen came along.
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    38 分
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