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The Milk Check

The Milk Check

著者： T.C. Jacoby & Co. - Dairy Traders
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 Experienced dairy traders discuss current market trends that affect payments to dairy farmers. 経済学
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  • When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply

    When Will Dairy Prices Turn Around: GLP-1 and Oversupply
    2025/11/18
    Milk production is up 4.2% year over year, components are climbing and prices are falling. As holiday orders wrap up and we head into the long winter, The Milk Check team digs into whether dairy markets have already found a floor, or if there’s still another leg down to go. With milk products everywhere (except for whey), the Jacoby team shares where the market is and where we’re going. They churn through: Butter at $1.50 and what heavy cream and higher components mean after the holidays Why cheese feels like a calm before the storm, and how far Class III could grind lower Nonfat and skim: long milk, growing inventories and buyers shopping the cheapest origin Why whey proteins are the outlier, with tight supply, strong demand and GLP-1 tailwinds Global milk growth, clustered demand (Ramadan, Chinese New Year, Super Bowl) and who blinks first between the U.S. and Europe In this episode of The Milk Check, host Ted Jacoby III is joined by Joe Maixner, Jacob Menge, Diego Carvallo, Josh White and Mike Brown for a rapid-fire market session on butter, cheese, nonfat and proteins. Listen now for The Milk Check’s latest market read on butter, cheese, nonfat and whey. Got questions? We’d love to hear them. Submit below, and we might answer it on the show. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome back, everybody, to The Milk Check podcast. Today we're gonna have a market discussion. It is November 10th. We are in the last couple of weeks of the quote-unquote busy season, starting to get a feel for what we think is gonna happen to dairy markets as holiday orders are filled, and we transition into the long-term period of the year. In the last few weeks, we've actually seen prices drop, but it feels like butter's kind of dropped down to about a $1.50/lb and seems to find at least a brief floor. We'll talk to Joe and find out if Joe thinks we're gonna stick around here for a while. The cheese market was up in the $1.80s/lb. It's dropped to a little below $1.70, starting to hit a little bit of resistance. Jake will share with us a little bit about what we think is happening with cheese going forward. Nonfat dropped a little bit down to [00:01:00], about what Diego, about a $1.10/lb and had a little bounce off its floor. Meanwhile, the whey complex just continues to go up. We'll check in with Josh and find out what's going on there. Well, let's go ahead and start with milk production. We just got released today, the September milk production, and it says it's up 4.2%, which is a very, very big number. It's November; milk is longer than it usually is this time of year. Usually, it's quite tight, and it's not quite tight, but I wouldn't call it long. However, all the signs are there that once we get past the fall holiday order season, milk could get quite long. If September milk is up 4.2%, I think it's safe to say that if that continues, we will be quite long milk as we transition from the typical seasonal tightness of the fall into the winter and the flush of the spring. 4.2% is a big number, and that's not even taking into account the fact that the solids in the milk are up as well. That's not the kind of tone that a dairy farmer wants us to set as we're talking about what supply and demand looks like, but there's a lot of milk out there, [00:02:00] Joe, does that mean there's a lot of butter out there, too? Joe Maixner: Well, there's still a lot of butter out there; sounds like there's going to be a lot more butter coming soon. If milk's up 4%, cream was heavy all of last winter and into last Spring, extremely heavy. If we have higher components, more milk, and we've got a full amount of milk coming outta California as well after coming off of bird flu last year, there's just gonna be that much more cream in the system and more getting pushed back into the churns. So, it's a very good possibility that we're gonna go even lower than where we currently are. ...
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    26 分
  • Bears in Butter. Bulls in Protein.

    Bears in Butter. Bulls in Protein.
    2025/10/17
    Butter’s slipping, cheese feels heavy, but the protein complex is flexing hard. In this Milk Check market roundtable, Ted Jacoby III brings together Diego Carvallo, Jacob Menge, Joe Maixner and Josh White to unpack what’s driving the mixed messages in the markets. Listen to hear: Why butter could fall below $1.50 before year-end How global health trends are powering whey protein demand Why cheese exports are getting harder to move Whether dairy’s bearish mood could trigger a short squeeze It’s a classic Milk Check market roundtable. Listen now to The Milk Check episode 86: Bears in Butter, Bulls in Protein. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Hey everybody, welcome to The Milk Check. We're gonna have an old-fashioned market discussion today. We've got a lot going on in dairy markets right now. It's the middle of October. Markets are moving, but not in the direction that they usually move in October. It seems like everything wants to go down right now, and we'll start with the product that seems to be most bearish today, the one we've been talking about a lot lately. Joe, what is going on with butter? Joe Maixner: Butter is interesting today because we're actually up. Long-term Sentiment really hasn't changed. There's not really a whole lot new to talk about on the butter. Markets aren't linear, so we're gonna have these choppy trades here and there where some buying comes in and things get pushed. But there's plenty of butter still out there. There's plenty of butter being offered out there. Right now, there's a good amount of demand, but we're anticipating that that's fairly short-lived. We've got [00:01:00] holiday demand for another couple of weeks here, and then that should probably tail off. We'll see what happens after that. Ted Jacoby III: So we're a $1.60 and a $1.65 today. It's Friday, October 10th. Felt like a little bit of a dead cat bounce after really dropping pretty hard earlier in the week. Is that what it is? Is it a dead cat bounce? Joe Maixner: I wouldn't call a quarter of a cent on spot a dead cat bounce. The moves on the futures are 3¢ to 5¢ moves with a 10¢ plus move intraday. There's no shortage of volatility. Ted Jacoby III: What do you think will be happening in the next month? You think maybe we'll bounce off this, go up a little bit for the next couple of weeks? Then all the orders that need to get filled for the holidays get filled? And then what? Joe Maixner: I think we take another leg lower. I think we'll be sub $1.50 before the end of the year. Ted Jacoby III: I agree. We're at prices so low that a year ago it would've been really hard to imagine we'd ever get here. And the idea that we could even go lower from here just seems unbelievable, but that's the market we're in right now. Joe Maixner: Less than 24 months ago, we were all talking about $4 butter [00:02:00] coming, and there was not enough fat to keep up with demand. And now we're potentially going to the $1.40s. There's so much fat that we can't consume it all. But we also have to remember that this is all cyclical, and at some point, these low prices are gonna cure the low prices. Ted Jacoby III: Meanwhile, let's talk a little bit about protein. The more bearish we get on butter, the more bullish the protein markets seem to get. What's going on in the protein markets right now? Josh White: I think we gotta define which we're talking about with protein because if it's protein with over 34% protein, it's pretty hard to find, particularly with the whey proteins. If it's 34% or under, most unstandardized non-fat dry milk is quite a bit above 34%, so maybe let's say 40%, it seems like we can't find a bottom. So, really, two very different markets at the moment. So,
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    21 分
  • Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group

    Swimming in Butter: Global Insights from Cefetra Group
    2025/10/09
    Does perfect weather mean bad news for dairy? In this episode of The Milk Check, Ted Jacoby III and the Jacoby team welcome guests from Cefetra Dairy, Henk-Jan Bouwman, Head of Account Management; Martijn Goedhart, Managing Director; and Veljko Perovic, Commodity Market Analyst and Derivatives Trader. Together, we unpack why the world is swimming in butter and what it means for producers, traders and processors heading into 2026. You’ll hear: Why too much 80% salted has the U.S. sloshing in inventory How Europe went from record highs to €2,000-per-ton losses When demand might finally catch up with supply Click play below and listen now to The Milk Check episode 84: Swimming in Butter – Global Insights from Cefetra Group. Got questions? Got questions for The Milk Check team? We’ve got answers. Submit your questions below and we’d be happy to get back to you or answer your question on the podcast. Ask The Milk Check Ted Jacoby III: Welcome everybody to The Milk Check, a T.C. Jacoby & Co. podcast. We have a really exciting episode today. We are going to be discussing the U.S. and European butter markets and how that's going to affect global butter supply, global butter demand, and obviously price. We are joined today by our good friends from Cefetra Dairy. We've got Martijn, Henk-Jan, and Veljko from Cefetra Dairy. Really looking forward to this discussion. Joe, we're gonna start with you. What's going on with the U.S. butter market? We've just dropped in the last two months, what, 60, 70¢? I feel like the bottom just dropped out. What's been driving this, and how's this gonna play out going forward? Joe Maixner: Well, long story short, there's too much 80% salted sitting in inventories, both in trader's hands and in manufacturer's hands. There was a lot of product built earlier in the year when there was a great carry in the market [00:01:00] and when cream was plentiful. All of that product is coming back to the market because cream is still plentiful and manufacturers aren't needing it for micro fixing. Demand has been good, but not great. Ted Jacoby III: Is it safe to say that even if we're having good butter demand in the U.S. right now, it doesn't compare to the increase in supply we're dealing with? Joe Maixner: Absolutely. We're so much higher year over year on fat component and milk production that we just physically can't consume as much butter as we're producing. Ted Jacoby III: Mike Brown, my question for you is this, we've come down from $3.50 two years ago, $2.50 earlier this year, now we're at a $1.75. We've talked a lot about on this program how the genetics have dairy cows producing a lot more butterfat than they have in years past, and that's a trend that has really changed the supply side dynamic for butterfat in the U.S. At a $1.75, does that trend change? Mike Brown: The genetic trend of course won't change 'cause it's permanent . People have been making decisions to improve fat content of milk for a long, long time. It's been [00:02:00] emphasized because of the high value of fat. And so it's already built into not only the current dairy herd, but the animals that will be replacements over the next two or three years. On the feeding side, that's another story, but most folks I talk to say a $1.50, $1.70 fat probably isn't gonna make a lot of change in feeding and management on a dairy farm. You may see some of those higher expensive fat additives that are used to increase fat used a little less heavily, but the trend overall will be there. Will the rate of gain continue to be as high? I think is a good question, but I don't think the trend toward gaining fat's gonna change certainly in the next two, three years. Ted Jacoby III: So, this is a question for both Mike and Gus. One of the rumors I've heard is that there have been some raw milk buyers out there who have been talking about putting caps on butter,
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    31 分
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