Gareth and Jeremy discuss the key factors that have impacted financial markets over the past week and take a look ahead to what lies ahead for investors.

Bond markets got the yips over talks of IMF visits for France and the UK. However, no one informed the FX market, and the value of the £ remained solid, helped in part by the weakening of the $. However, it's all relative, and the real value of things is reflected in gold and other real assets.

US labour markets showed more signs of weakness, but with persistent inflation.

US tech giants continue to dominate, but with little scrutiny of the returns that their substantial AI capital expenditures might yield. Oracle was in the spotlight this week, with some extraordinary results, launching its founder back into the top spot on the world's richest person leader board.

Despite our volatile politics, UK equities remain in demand, and risk assets more broadly remain in good fettle.

The long wait for the UK Budget might be because they are working on a cunning plan for growth, or they are simply waiting for things to improve. Of course, both could be true. Either way is a frustrating wait.

Meanwhile, the results and updates offer a mixed bag, indicating that the UK consumer remains active.

Jeremy offers a view on Treatt's fall from grace and its Board's disappointing acceptance of the modestly pitched PE offer the company received this week.

Looking ahead, the main focus will be on the Fed's rate decision, where the overwhelming expectation is for a 25 bps cut to 4.25%.

But most people will be more interested in President Trump's second state visit to the UK, which begins on Tuesday. Shhh, nobody mention Jeffrey Epstein.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth debate Trump's ongoing attacks on the US Fed...perhaps Powell is rolling over, but the recently "sacked" board member Lisa Cook is not. The dollar fell and long bond yields rose, but not by much. France is showing renewed (and traditional) political risk, and the landscape across Europe feels pressured. The UK is once again facing an Autumn of Worry as the budget's tax-more-or-spend-less balancing act seems destined to repeat last year's wheel of fortune on which part of the economy will bear the brunt of new taxes.

In the absence of much small-cap news, the pair consider the misfortunes of Drax, the former coal-fired power generation group, now reinvented doing the "green thing" of burning wood pellets to produce electricity. This week saw news that the FCA is investigating the veracity of some of the their historic claims around the source of these pellets (Drax claims they're mainly "off-cuts" of wood that's already being logged). Whether or not there's an issue, it is possible that the attention might focus minds on the genuine green credentials of shipping wood across the Atlantic to burn it, and then claiming that by capturing the carbon released and then burying it, the whole process is "carbon negative". More broadly, some governments are actively against the renewables agenda, and others actively can't afford it.

Next week we get the excitement of US jobs data - Trump wants data weak enough to prompt a big interest rate cut, but not weak enough to look like a recession. Whoever's in charge of "deciding" the number better tread a careful line, or they might join the jobless stats for the following months.

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This week has been relatively quiet. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospects for peace in Europe, the not quite so bad news, but still not good news, about the UK economy and our public finances.

UK inflation and the long end of the gilt market both look like they might be getting out of control. UK inflation has now been above target for 49 out of the last 51 reports. Not conventionally a scenario in which to cut rates, unless, of course, it is transitory.

Jeremy talks about the significance of Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole later today (3 pm UK time) and asks whether he is prepared to die on the hill of inflation and central bank independence.

Gareth then highlights the dramatic warning and share price reaction from WHSmith this week and its potential implications.

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In their usual weekly chat, Jeremy and Gareth cover the macro market news and events with a few thoughts on what it all means.

While the UK reporting season is a bit dull, the US Q2 reports have been more positive. There is a long wait for the Autumn Budget in the UK, and many companies are likely to face a long wait for the inevitable tax increases. Lots of comments out there about gambling taxes, IHT and maybe VAT increases.

Overall, the UK economic news this week has been poor but not calamitous.

Equity markets are moving to all-time highs, with powerful rallies seen from the early April lows, particularly in the US.

Maybe investors are looking ahead to a period of policy easing. However, in bond markets, the message is more mixed. Will the Fed cut rates next month? A stronger-than-expected US PPI print for July indicates that tariff-induced inflation might be on the way, giving Powell a reason, or excuse, to keep rates on hold.

There is a setup for a big showdown between the White House and the Fed. If Powell is focused on his legacy, then he might want to go out as the man who stood up to Trump and defended the economy from inflation, as Paul Volcker rather than Arthur Burns.

Gareth covers the updates from Xaar and Zoo Digital. Jeremy highlights the warning from Shoe Zone and suggests the shares might have overreacted to the news. Almost certainly meaning there is worse to come!

Looking ahead, next week, there is UK inflation data, which might increase to 4%. So, it's not the typical environment in which to cut rates.

We also have Japan's inflation data, which is expected to remain at a tricky 3.3%.

The main event is likely to be the outcome of the talks in Alaska. Will Trump and Putin move the lines on the map of Europe?

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Gareth and Jeremy discuss macroeconomic developments and how they might impact financial markets.

Plenty of noise around tariffs still, and still difficult to determine any signal. Meanwhile, the Fed and the BoE have both had contentious rate-setting meetings, highlighting the unprecedented way in which like-minded policymakers have differing views about the future path of monetary policy.

Jeremy questions whether we are seeing the end of the era of central bank global orthodoxy. There will be much chat at Jackson Hole about the existential threats to central bank independence and their ability to operate under the auspices of their increasingly fiscally challenged political masters.

Meanwhile, US company reporting is more positive than the newsflow from the UK, although equity markets are grinding higher on stronger capital flows.

On this point, Gareth mentions the divergent fortunes of Sanderson Design, which updated this week, in the US and the UK.

Looking ahead, we can expect a UK unemployment report, which is not likely to be encouraging for Rachel Reeves; US inflation data that is likely to confirm an ongoing rise in the core measure; and a UK Q2 GDP print, again, which might signal bad news for Rachel.

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This week, Jeremy and Gareth talk Turnberry and trade deals - with a backdrop of some tech titans' Q2 earnings reports with such strong results that "American Exceptionalism" seems as strong as ever. The anticipated dispersion of capital to other venues will have to wait, as AI spend dominates and American giants are mainly the beneficiaries.

The US FOMC decision (to leave rates unchanged) allowed Jay Powell to highlight that the credibility of the Fed relies on his ability to not bow to political pressure - highlighting that risks lie in both directions. Jeremy's comment is that reduced rates could let the genie out of the bottle, with inflation expectations significantly heightened and permanently elevated. If the US is run like an emerging market, it could well end up with emerging market inflation - and interest rates - with major implications for all of us. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant is looking to stablecoin mechanisms and untapped bank liquidity/leverage to help plug the gap in demand for US treasuries...

Next month sees the Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers - but next week we have the UK MPC interest rate decision. Markets are expecting a 25 basis point cut - but Jeremy cautions that the UK doesn't often like to jump the gun on rate moves, so the US "hold" this week might spell trouble for those expectations.

Gareth talks about Progressive clients STV, IG Design Group, Forterra and SDI Group, and Jeremy highlights the strength of the UK market, buoyed partly by bid activity - with £3bn of incoming capital for IPF and Just Group, both of which saw takeover announcements.

Looking to the next week, US non-farm payroll data will show how the economy is coping with both tariff impacts and the changed migration dynamics in the US job market. US PMI and UK rate decisions are due next week, but the main event is still likely to be Trump-related, whether and how much he provokes genuine and material trade wars with China, Canada, Mexico, Brazil...or others !

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Jeremy & Gareth, having skipped a week, cover the macro news of the last fortnight.

Trump's new tariff "magic money tree" has encouraged him to ramp up the rhetoric on tariffs. Critically, the inflationary impact of higher tariffs is now coming into focus, impacting the growing feud between the White House and the Federal Reserve.

Japan has struck a deal with the US, but the EU and China are awaiting their turn. Both of these larger trading partners present difficulties that the market seems relatively sanguine about. The risk that China plays hardball has been all but discounted.

Macro data shows that inflation remains elevated in both the US and the UK. The UK labour market has softened over the past eight months as the economy faces rising taxes in the Budget and the government deals with higher-than-expected borrowing.

EY has reported on the highest level of UK profit warnings in 25 years. Several businesses, such as Treatt and Judges, have warned due to exposure to the US market and the weaker dollar. The UK market, meanwhile, continues to move higher, which appears to be more a result of capital flows than fundamentals.

Gareth discusses recent results from Van Elle and Severfield in the construction space.

Looking ahead, it is jobs week in the US, which should indicate a further slowing in the labour market. Additionally, the Fed Chair's press conference should be worth watching, even though no one is expecting any movement in rates.

We also receive the BoJ rate decision, which, as ever, can send shockwaves through the rest of the world's financial markets. Let's see.

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This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss how an emboldened Trump has raised the tariff temperature while also considering the potential for a version of the future to be one of US economic growth. But whatever the path forward, Paul Tudor Jones' mantra, that all roads lead to inflation, seems increasingly appropriate.

Risk assets continue their march higher with Nvidia and Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Nvidia is the first company to be valued at over $4 trillion.

In the UK, Gareth talks about housebuilder Springfield and merchanting business Lords Trading as prime examples of UK small-cap companies executing well on sensible capital allocation policies.

Looking ahead, it is mainly about inflation with data releases in the US, the UK and Japan.

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