This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss how an emboldened Trump has raised the tariff temperature while also considering the potential for a version of the future to be one of US economic growth. But whatever the path forward, Paul Tudor Jones' mantra, that all roads lead to inflation, seems increasingly appropriate.

Risk assets continue their march higher with Nvidia and Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. Nvidia is not the first company to be valued at over $4 trillion.

In the UK, Gareth talks about housebuilder Springfield and merchanting business Lords Trading as prime examples of UK small-cap companies executing well on sensible capital allocation policies.

Looking ahead, it is mainly about inflation with data releases in the US, the UK and Japan.

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Jeremy and Gareth discuss the week's macro market news and developments, comparing the plight of the Trump and Starmer administrations, which are six months and a year in, respectively. The differing outcomes, at least in part, reflect the degree to which the bond markets constrain the UK government more than the US.

We are halfway through 2025 and have had a turbulent Q2. Equity markets are recovering everywhere, but persistent dollar weakness has made the US seem less exceptional than usual.

In H2, the pressure will be on Scott Bessent to deliver some magic in the treasury markets and refinance well over a $1 trillion of longer-duration paper. The stronger-than-expected labour market, as measured by the non-farm payrolls yesterday, is not helpful. He is still wishing for a 10-year rate below 4.

The UK equity market remains attractive, and there are signs that the IPO market may reopen during H2. Let's see.

We discuss Secure Trust Bank's decision to put its motor finance activity into run-off, which investors appear to have welcomed. However, it is a sign that the regulations are driving this lending activity away from the transparency of the PLC world, which would be a shame.

Looking ahead, we have some UK GDP data, and Wednesday marks the deadline for Trump's tariffs, which could lead to increased volatility.

WW3 is over, oil prices are plummeting, inflation is dead, Daddy Trump is putting the world back together, including doing a trade deal with China and getting interest rates down, even if it means sacking the man who is in his way. And the UK smaller company sector has discovered the Bitcoin magic money tree and is bathing in the prospect of free money. What a time to be alive! What could possibly go wrong?

This week, Gareth and Jeremy spend some time discussing the new Bitcoin Treasury Company model being developed among a cohort of UK smaller companies. Is it magic money or a dangerous bubble?

Gareth also covers updates from Sanderson Design, Gear4Music and Vertu Motors.

Next week is jobs week in the US, and we will get inflation data for the Eurozone. Watch for a non-farm payroll number below 100,000, which the market is likely to take positively.

Brought to you by Progressive Equity.