The "debt trap" meme claims that China is intentionally lending vast sums of money to poor developing countries in Africa, and elsewhere, with the express intent to seize physical assets in those countries when they inevitably can't repay their debts.

This fanciful narrative sounds compelling, but the problem is that there's literally no evidence from the past twenty years since China became the world's largest bilateral creditor to support the claim. It just isn't true.

The reality of how China actually secures its loans to these countries is far more complicated.

Anna Gelpern, a law professor at Georgetown University, and Brad Parks, executive director of AidData, a development finance research institute at the College of William & Mary, were part of a team of experts that did an extensive forensic analysis of 620 Chinese loans spanning more than 20 years that revealed the financial methods Beijing employs to guarantee these debts.

Anna and Brad join Eric to discuss the findings from their new report, "How China Collateralizes."

SHOW NOTES:

• AidData: How China Collateralizes by Anna Gelpern, Omar Haddad, Sebastian Horn, Paulina Kintzinger, Bradley C. Parks, Christoph Trebesch
• AidData: How China Lends: A Rare Look into 100 Debt Contracts with Foreign Governments by Anna Gelpern, Sebastian Horn, Scott Morris, Brad Parks, Christoph Trebesch

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This week Eric & Cobus sit down with Wu Peng, the director-general of the department of African affairs in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for his perspective on a wide range of issues that are impacting relations between the two regions.

The conversation also features questions from a trio of experts in China-Africa relations including:

• Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development (@gyude_moore)
• Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@MissZeeUsman)
• Aggrey Mutambo, senior diplomatic affairs writer for the Daily Nation and The East African newspaper (@agmutambo)

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Since its inception in 2013, Chinese government officials have insisted that the Belt and Road is solely an economic initiative and does not have any military motivations. But the BRI's civil-military distinction is no longer as clear cut as it used to be. President Xi Jinping himself called for a strong BRI security system to protect China's overseas interests, people and property.

One little-known aspect of the BRI is that much of the overseas construction, particularly ports, must conform to standards that conform to the People's Liberation Army's requirements. So, while today there's little evidence that China is leveraging the BRI for security or military purposes, there are concerns that it is positioning to be able to do so in the future should the need arise.

Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, examined the security dimensions of the BRI in a recent paper. Daniel joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he calls the Belt and Road's "civil-military fusion" in maritime, terrestrial and space environments.

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A new generation of scholars is reshaping China-Africa research. More geographically diverse and digitally fluent than the field’s early pioneers of the 2000s, this cohort brings fresh perspectives and tools to the study of China’s engagement on the continent.

Yet deep structural barriers persist. African and Chinese researchers still face sizable obstacles in shaping research agendas, as U.S. and European institutions continue to dominate decisions about what gets studied, who receives funding, and which voices are amplified.

Solange Guo Chatelard, a research associate at the Université Libre de Bruxelles and the new executive director of the Chinese in Africa/Africans in China research network, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the current state of China-Africa scholarship and where it's going.

SHOW NOTES:

• The China-Global South Project: A Display of Power, Not Partnership, in Washington by C. Géraud Neema
• The Chinese in Africa/Africans in China Research Network: https://ca-ac.org/

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While the U.S., India, and countries in the Persian Gulf are all moving quickly to establish new critical mineral supply chains, the European Union is struggling to follow suit, particularly in Africa. The EU currently lacks a cohesive policy framework that would bolster mining companies, support partner countries, and encourage the development of a mineral processing sector that can lessen Europe's current dependence on China.

To do this, the EU should follow China's model in Africa, where it paired extraction with the development of vital infrastructure, according to a new commentary from the European Centre for Development Policy Management (ECDPM).

The authors, Poorva Karkare and Karim Karaki, join Eric & Géraud from Brussels to explain why the EU should strive for strategic complementarity rather than competition with China in Africa.

SHOW NOTES:

• ECDPM: The EU’s playbook for African minerals amid China’s dominance by Poorva Karkare and Karim Karaki
• AFRICA POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE: The tumultuous path toward EU-China-Africa trilateral cooperation on Critical Raw Materials in Africa by C. Géraud Neema

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Borrowers in Africa and other developing regions are expected to repay $35 billion of Chinese loans this year, with two-thirds of the amount coming from the world's poorest countries. Many of these debts were taken out in the mid-2010s and are now exiting their grace periods, putting enormous pressure on government budgets that were already under strain.

But this isn't a problem just for borrowing countries; Chinese creditors are also finding themselves in a difficult bind. If they push too hard to collect on these debts, it could force the most vulnerable countries into default. At the same time, though, they have an obligation to their stakeholders, including Chinese taxpayers, to ensure these obligations are fulfilled.

Riley Duke, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, highlighted the difficult dilemma for both creditor and borrower in a new report on Chinese debt collection. Riley joins Eric & Cobus from Sydney to discuss how both sides of the transaction are responding to this growing challenge.

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China is emerging from the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran in a much weaker position. For years, Beijing counted on Tehran to serve as a bulwark against Washington. Today, though, that's no longer possible as the Iranian government and its proxies across the Middle East have been neutralized, at least for now.

The conflict also exposed a major Chinese vulnerability following threats that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the attacks on its nuclear facilities. This would be devastating for the Chinese economy, given that between a third and half of all Chinese oil imports pass through this strategic waterway.

Ahmed Aboudouh, head of the China research unit at the Emirates Policy Center and an associate fellow in the Chatham House Middle East and North Africa program, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss the new realities facing Beijing in the aftermath of the war in Iran.

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Over the past 25 years, China’s military engagement with Africa has grown dramatically. In 2000, fewer than 5% of African weapons came from China. Today, Chinese-made armored vehicles are used by 70% of African militaries, and China has become the continent’s largest arms supplier.

Officer training programs have followed a similar trajectory. At the turn of the century, fewer than 200 African officers were trained in China; today, that number exceeds 2,000.

Paul Nantulya, a veteran China–Africa military analyst and research associate at the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, joins Eric and Cobus to unpack his latest findings on how Beijing is deepening its defense ties across the continent.

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