South Africa's trade relations with the United States are under strain, threatening its access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). As Washington weaponizes tariffs and market access, Pretoria faces mounting pressure to diversify its economic partnerships.

Beijing's zero-tariff initiative offers African exporters new opportunities, but China-Africa trade remains heavily concentrated in raw materials. For African governments, the challenge is to turn strategic resources, critical minerals and geographic advantages into genuine economic leverage through industrialization, regional integration and stronger domestic capabilities. Diversifying international partnerships will require more than diplomatic maneuvering; it demands the infrastructure, skilled workforces and political coordination to capture greater value.

Ronak Gopaldas, Director at geopolitical risk consultancy Signal Risk and Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics, joins Eric and Geraud to discus great-power competition in Africa, South Africa's trade dilemma, and how African countries can leverage U.S.-China rivalry to advance their economic interests.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• South Africa's Trade Ties With Washington Strained
• AGOA Access and Washington's Use of Tariffs
• China's Zero-Tariff Initiative and African Export Opportunities
• China-Africa Trade and the Challenge of Industrialization
• Africa's Economic Diversification Amid U.S.-China Competition Intensifies
• Regional Integration and Building Domestic Industrial Capacity

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Africa is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, potentially outpacing China for the first time in decades. But faster GDP growth does not necessarily translate into rising living standards. Resource-dependent economies, persistent extreme poverty and rapid population growth continue to limit the gains ordinary Africans see from economic expansion.

Industrialization presents another challenge as Chinese manufacturers dominate global production and African countries remain heavily dependent on commodity exports. Building regional markets, processing critical minerals locally and leveraging Chinese investment could help diversify African economies. The challenge is creating enough productive jobs for millions of young people entering the workforce while navigating an increasingly polarized global order.

Jakkie Cilliers, head of the Africa Futures and Innovation Program at the Institute for Security Studies, joins us to discuss Africa's path to prosperity and how African countries can balance economic development, political stability and democracy.

Show Notes:

• Amazon: Africa's Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know by Jakkie Cilliers
• Financial Times: Can Africa outgrow China? by David Pilling

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Africa's Growth Boom: Why Prosperity Remains Elusive
• Can Africa Industrialize While China Dominates Manufacturing?
• China, Critical Minerals, and Africa's Industrial Future
• Africa's Demographic Dividend and the Battle for Jobs
• Democracy, Stability, and Africa's Path to Prosperity

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China is deepening its engagement with Africa as geopolitical competition intensifies, with President Xi Jinping meeting the leaders of Botswana and Togo in Beijing. The visits highlight Beijing's sustained diplomatic outreach and growing interest in African copper supplies, alongside its push to strengthen trade and mining partnerships.

Yet access to mineral wealth does not automatically translate into economic development. African governments face the challenge of converting mining revenues and value addition into industrial diversification, infrastructure and jobs. In the energy sector, Chinese investment could also help connect national electricity grids, but realizing that potential will require stronger regional coordination and planning.

In this week's episode of the CGSP Roundtable, Eric, Geraud and Cobus discuss China-Africa diplomacy, strategies for maximizing Chinese investment in electricity integration, and the continuing debate over China's role in Africa's debt burden.

Show Notes:

• YouTube: The 'China Debt Trap' Was Never Real. Here's What's Actually Happening by Uptin
• SAIIA: Expanding China's Role in Africa's Electricity Integration by Cobus van Staden

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China Deepens Diplomatic Engagement With African Leaders
• Botswana's Copper Reserves and China's Mineral Strategy
• Who Benefits From Africa's Mineral Wealth?
• China's Role in Africa's Future Electricity Grid
• Rethinking China's Role in Africa's Debt Crisis
• Why the China Debt Trap Narrative Persists

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This week Eric & Cobus sit down with Wu Peng, the director-general of the department of African affairs in the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, for his perspective on a wide range of issues that are impacting relations between the two regions.

The conversation also features questions from a trio of experts in China-Africa relations including:

• Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development (@gyude_moore)
• Zainab Usman, director of the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (@MissZeeUsman)
• Aggrey Mutambo, senior diplomatic affairs writer for the Daily Nation and The East African newspaper (@agmutambo)

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Since its inception in 2013, Chinese government officials have insisted that the Belt and Road is solely an economic initiative and does not have any military motivations. But the BRI's civil-military distinction is no longer as clear cut as it used to be. President Xi Jinping himself called for a strong BRI security system to protect China's overseas interests, people and property.

One little-known aspect of the BRI is that much of the overseas construction, particularly ports, must conform to standards that conform to the People's Liberation Army's requirements. So, while today there's little evidence that China is leveraging the BRI for security or military purposes, there are concerns that it is positioning to be able to do so in the future should the need arise.

Daniel Russel, vice president for international security and diplomacy at the New York-based Asia Society Policy Institute, examined the security dimensions of the BRI in a recent paper. Daniel joins Eric & Cobus to discuss what he calls the Belt and Road's "civil-military fusion" in maritime, terrestrial and space environments.

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The DRC's cobalt industry is also moving uranium through global supply chains, creating a problem that extends beyond critical-minerals security. Researchers estimate that 2,000–5,000 tons of uranium may have left the country as a byproduct of cobalt production, raising questions about nuclear-security risks, environmental exposure, and the traceability of mineral exports.

The challenge is persistent rather than catastrophic: uranium occurs naturally alongside DRC cobalt and can remain in cobalt hydroxide even when companies follow existing processing standards. Weak shipment-level monitoring and inconsistent reporting leave uncertainty over where the uranium goes and how it is handled after reaching China and other markets.

Ryan Manzuk, Postdoctoral Research Associate in the Program on Science and Global Security, joins Cobus and Geraud to analyze uranium contamination in DRC cobalt exports, including nuclear-security implications, environmental and worker exposure, and measures to improve traceability and local processing.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Uranium contamination in DRC cobalt exports
• China's role in cobalt supply chains
• Nuclear security risks from uranium exports
• Environmental and health risks for miners
• Traceability, regulation, and local processing

Show Notes

• Nature Communications: Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo by Ryan A. Manzuk & Sébastien Philippe

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China-Africa security cooperation is expanding beyond military ties into cross-border law enforcement, as Chinese-linked telecom fraud operations spread across Africa. Joint investigations, intelligence sharing and police partnerships are becoming increasingly important as governments confront scams targeting victims worldwide, including in China and the United States.

Meanwhile, Africa's new credit ratings agency aims to challenge assessments that critics say overstate the continent's investment risks and increase borrowing costs. Its influence will depend on whether investors and banks accept its methodology, including in China's capital markets. Both developments reflect a broader push to strengthen African agency and reshape international systems, even as China's engagement shifts toward more targeted cooperation rather than headline-grabbing loans.

Géraud Neema, Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden discuss China-Africa police cooperation, the credibility of Africa's new credit ratings agency, and what these shifts could mean for the next Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China-Africa Police Cooperation and Telecom Fraud
• Chinese Law Enforcement's Expanding Role in Africa
• Africa's New Credit Ratings Agency Explained
• Can African Credit Ratings Challenge Western Financial Power?
• What to Expect From the Next FOCAC Summit

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China's engagement across Africa is increasingly shaped by both high-level geopolitics and competition in everyday markets. Somalia's renewed ties with Beijing are being driven in part by the Somaliland question, particularly its growing relationship with Taiwan. At the same time, Chinese companies continue expanding their commercial footprint across the continent.

The U.S.-China technology contest is also playing out in Africa, but the scale of investment highlights a significant gap between American initiatives such as Africell and China's established ICT infrastructure footprint. Meanwhile, Chinese automakers are rapidly gaining ground in South Africa, while electric two-wheelers could reshape mobility and the gig economy across African cities.

Eric Olander, Geraud Neema and Cobus van Staden examine what these developments reveal about China's changing role in Africa, from the strategic importance of Somaliland and Taiwan to the realities of competing with Chinese technology and adapting to African consumers.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode:

• China-Somalia ties and the Somaliland question
• U.S.-China competition over African telecom infrastructure
• Chinese electric vehicles and Africa's mobility future

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