South Africa's trade relations with the United States are under strain, threatening its access to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). As Washington weaponizes tariffs and market access, Pretoria faces mounting pressure to diversify its economic partnerships.

Beijing's zero-tariff initiative offers African exporters new opportunities, but China-Africa trade remains heavily concentrated in raw materials. For African governments, the challenge is to turn strategic resources, critical minerals and geographic advantages into genuine economic leverage through industrialization, regional integration and stronger domestic capabilities. Diversifying international partnerships will require more than diplomatic maneuvering; it demands the infrastructure, skilled workforces and political coordination to capture greater value.

Ronak Gopaldas, Director at geopolitical risk consultancy Signal Risk and Visiting Fellow at the London School of Economics, joins Eric and Geraud to discus great-power competition in Africa, South Africa's trade dilemma, and how African countries can leverage U.S.-China rivalry to advance their economic interests.

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• South Africa's Trade Ties With Washington Strained
• AGOA Access and Washington's Use of Tariffs
• China's Zero-Tariff Initiative and African Export Opportunities
• China-Africa Trade and the Challenge of Industrialization
• Africa's Economic Diversification Amid U.S.-China Competition Intensifies
• Regional Integration and Building Domestic Industrial Capacity

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @RonakGopaldas | @cgneema |

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

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• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
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Africa is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, potentially outpacing China for the first time in decades. But faster GDP growth does not necessarily translate into rising living standards. Resource-dependent economies, persistent extreme poverty and rapid population growth continue to limit the gains ordinary Africans see from economic expansion.

Industrialization presents another challenge as Chinese manufacturers dominate global production and African countries remain heavily dependent on commodity exports. Building regional markets, processing critical minerals locally and leveraging Chinese investment could help diversify African economies. The challenge is creating enough productive jobs for millions of young people entering the workforce while navigating an increasingly polarized global order.

Jakkie Cilliers, head of the Africa Futures and Innovation Program at the Institute for Security Studies, joins us to discuss Africa's path to prosperity and how African countries can balance economic development, political stability and democracy.

Show Notes:

• Amazon: Africa's Road to Prosperity: 10 Things to Know by Jakkie Cilliers
• Financial Times: Can Africa outgrow China? by David Pilling

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Africa's Growth Boom: Why Prosperity Remains Elusive
• Can Africa Industrialize While China Dominates Manufacturing?
• China, Critical Minerals, and Africa's Industrial Future
• Africa's Demographic Dividend and the Battle for Jobs
• Democracy, Stability, and Africa's Path to Prosperity

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @cgneema | @JakkieCilliers

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

China is deepening its engagement with Africa as geopolitical competition intensifies, with President Xi Jinping meeting the leaders of Botswana and Togo in Beijing. The visits highlight Beijing's sustained diplomatic outreach and growing interest in African copper supplies, alongside its push to strengthen trade and mining partnerships.

Yet access to mineral wealth does not automatically translate into economic development. African governments face the challenge of converting mining revenues and value addition into industrial diversification, infrastructure and jobs. In the energy sector, Chinese investment could also help connect national electricity grids, but realizing that potential will require stronger regional coordination and planning.

In this week's episode of the CGSP Roundtable, Eric, Geraud and Cobus discuss China-Africa diplomacy, strategies for maximizing Chinese investment in electricity integration, and the continuing debate over China's role in Africa's debt burden.

Show Notes:

• YouTube: The 'China Debt Trap' Was Never Real. Here's What's Actually Happening by Uptin
• SAIIA: Expanding China's Role in Africa's Electricity Integration by Cobus van Staden

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China Deepens Diplomatic Engagement With African Leaders
• Botswana's Copper Reserves and China's Mineral Strategy
• Who Benefits From Africa's Mineral Wealth?
• China's Role in Africa's Future Electricity Grid
• Rethinking China's Role in Africa's Debt Crisis
• Why the China Debt Trap Narrative Persists

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @stadenesque | @cgneema

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject

YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas