Chinese companies are accelerating overseas investment in clean technology manufacturing as domestic overcapacity, weak demand and rising trade barriers push them to seek new markets. A global manufacturing investment database shows that Chinese firms account for roughly half of overseas clean-tech manufacturing investment, with projects spanning solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles.

Governments are increasingly demanding local production rather than imports, creating opportunities for industrialization but forcing countries to balance manufacturing ambitions against the urgent need for affordable electricity. In Africa, Morocco and Egypt have emerged as major investment destinations, while tariffs and localization policies risk making clean technologies more expensive and slowing the green transition.

Tim Sahay, co-director of the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University, and Mathias Larsen, senior policy fellow at LSE's Grantham Research Institute, join Eric to examine China's overseas clean-tech investment, the drivers of manufacturing relocation, and how Global South governments can secure technology transfer, jobs and industrial development.

Show Notes:

• Net Zero Policy Lab: The Global Race for Clean Energy

📌 Topics covered in this episode:

• How Trade Barriers Are Reshaping China's Clean Tech Expansion
• Why Chinese Green Manufacturers Are Investing Overseas
• China's Clean Tech Overcapacity and the Search for Markets
• Africa's Balancing Act Between Cheap Energy and Industrialization
• Morocco and Egypt's Growing Role in Chinese Green Investment
• How Global South Countries Can Secure Technology Transfer

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China's AI competition with the United States is increasingly about more than building the most powerful models. For countries across the Global South, affordability, practical performance, customization, and control over data are often more important than achieving artificial general intelligence. Chinese open-weight models offer flexibility, while US companies are competing more aggressively on cost.

The battle also extends beyond AI models to servers, cloud infrastructure, technical support, and the ability to build domestic AI capabilities. As Washington and Beijing develop competing technology coalitions, countries face growing pressure to choose sides while seeking to protect their digital sovereignty. Yet neither complete technological independence nor an enforceable divide between US and Chinese AI ecosystems appears straightforward.

Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution's China Center and author of the High Capacity Newsletter, joins Eric to discuss China-US AI competition, the Global South's pursuit of sovereign AI, and the geopolitical stakes of competing AI alliances and governance models.

Show Notes:

• Brookings Institute: Read Articles and Watch Events Featuring Kyle Chan
• Substack: High Capacity Substack by Kyle Chan
• YouTube - High Capacity Podcast

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Why AI Affordability Matters More Than Frontier Model Performance
• How China Is Building Global South AI Infrastructure
• Sovereign AI and the Limits of Digital Independence
• US-China Rivalry and the Battle for Global AI Governance

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China's new joint air training facility in Laos highlights Beijing's incremental expansion of its military access across Southeast Asia. The 2,000-meter runway could extend the operational reach of Chinese aircraft, although its current capabilities remain limited and its long-term purpose is uncertain. Unlike a conventional overseas base, the facility reflects a gradual approach to expanding China's regional security footprint.

The bigger story may be Beijing's deepening political and economic influence in Laos, where Chinese investment, debt exposure, and growing party-to-party ties strengthen bilateral relations. As Japan expands security cooperation across Southeast Asia and the United States maintains its regional military presence, China's evolving access arrangements could gradually reshape the regional balance of power.

Hunter Marston, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute and project lead for the Asia Power Index, joins Eric to talk about China's military ambitions in Laos, the strategic implications of its growing regional access, and the roles of economic leverage and Japan's expanding security partnerships.

Show Notes:

• Lowy Institute: What to make of China's new air facility in Laos by Hunter Marston

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China's New Air Training Facility in Laos
• Beijing's Growing Political and Economic Influence in Laos
• China's Military Access and Southeast Asian Security
• Japan's Expanding Security Role in the Indo-Pacific

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The world's largest bank by assets is also a powerful instrument of Chinese statecraft. An investigation by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, based on 4.8 million confidential records, reveals how Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) aligned lending decisions with Beijing's strategic priorities, sometimes overriding internal compliance concerns to secure natural resources, support Chinese companies, and strengthen political alliances.

The findings highlight the tensions between commercial banking, geopolitical influence, and financial oversight. From lending to Russian companies despite sanctions-related concerns to financing infrastructure and resource deals abroad, the records expose how strategic imperatives can shape banking decisions. Limited transparency, meanwhile, leaves borrowing countries and regulators with significant questions about accountability and risk.

Scilla Alecci, lead reporter and partnership coordinator for ICIJ's China Capital Investigation, joins Eric to talk about ICBC's overseas lending, Beijing's influence over bank decisions, and the implications for financial regulation, resource access, and borrowing countries.

Show Notes:

• International Consortium of Investigative Journalists - How the world's largest bank advances Beijing's political priorities and global ambitions by Scilla Alecci

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• How ICBC Advances Beijing's Global Strategic Interests
• China's State Banks and Geopolitical Power Projection
• Sanctions Compliance and High-Risk Overseas Lending Decisions
• Chinese Lending, Resource Access, and Political Alliances
• Zambia's Debt Repayments and China's Lending Practices
• Transparency, Financial Oversight, and Borrower Accountability

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India and China are cautiously rebuilding ties after years of confrontation, but normalization remains fragile. Recent high-level meetings have restored diplomatic momentum, yet unresolved territorial claims, persistent military deployments and deep strategic mistrust continue to constrain progress.

Beyond the border, the two Asian powers face competing regional ambitions, an increasingly complex relationship with Washington and a deeply imbalanced trade relationship. India's dependence on Chinese industrial components complicates efforts to reduce economic vulnerabilities, while China's close partnership with Pakistan and India's expanding security ties across Southeast Asia reinforce their strategic rivalry.

Ananth Krishnan, China Correspondent at The Hindu, joins Eric to examine the trajectory of India-China relations, including border negotiations, the impact of U.S. policy under Donald Trump, and the challenges of balancing economic interdependence with strategic competition.

Show Notes:

• Substack: The India China Newsletter by Ananth Krishnan
• Ananth Krishnan's Book - India's China Challenge: A Journey through China's Rise
• The Hindu: Ananth Krishnan's Reporting for the Hindu

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• India-China Border Talks and Normalization
• Trump's Impact on India-China Relations
• China-Pakistan Ties and Regional Security Competition
• India-China Trade Imbalances and Supply Chain Dependence

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U.S. public attitudes toward China are becoming less hawkish, widening the gap between Washington's national security establishment and a public increasingly favoring cooperation. A Chicago Council survey found 57% of Americans support engagement with China, compared with 85% of surveyed national security professionals favoring competition and containment.

The shift is being driven partly by generational change, growing admiration for Chinese technology and infrastructure, and frustration with domestic dysfunction in the United States. But the underlying rivalry remains intact, with trade, technology, geopolitical alignments, and structural economic tensions continuing to constrain the fragile détente.

Kaiser Kuo, host of the Sinica podcast, joins Eric to examine changing perceptions of China, including generational attitudes, performance legitimacy, and whether the current U.S.-China détente can endure.

Show Notes

• Foreign Affairs: How China Is Winning Friends and Influencing People by Eric Olander and Lizzi Lee
• Sinica: Sinica Podcast Substack by Kaiser Kuo
• Sinica: The Fever Has Broken — For Now by Kaiser Kuo

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Shifting American Attitudes Toward China and Cooperation
• Chinamaxxing and the Rise of China's Appeal
• Generational Divides in U.S.-China Relations Today
• The Fragile Détente Between Washington and Beijing
• China's Performance Legitimacy and American Dysfunction
• Why Greater China Literacy Matters for Policymakers

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China's relationship with Venezuela has shifted from a cornerstone of its South American strategy to a visibly diminished partnership. After more than two decades of oil-backed lending, infrastructure investment, and strategic cooperation, Beijing has responded cautiously as U.S. control over Venezuelan oil assets displaces Chinese interests.

The relationship now appears to occupy a gray zone: neither a full continuation of the pre-2026 partnership nor a formal rupture. China's limited response reflects the declining importance of Venezuela relative to Brazil, Peru, and Chile, while its remaining assets and longstanding interests give Beijing reasons to preserve a smaller presence.

Andrea Freites, China researcher at the Millennium Nucleus on the Impacts of China in Latin America and the Caribbean, joins Eric to talk about the future of China-Venezuela relations, including Beijing's response to the political transition, the fate of Chinese oil interests, and the prospects for a smaller but enduring Chinese presence.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China's changing role in Venezuela
• The fate of Chinese oil interests
• Beijing's response to Maduro's removal
• The future of China-Venezuela relations

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Southeast Asia is seeking a greater role in shaping global cooperation, as countries across the region push for institutions that deliver tangible results while preserving ASEAN's centrality and strategic autonomy.

A new report, Voices From the Region: Reimagining Global Cooperation From Southeast Asia, published by Verve Research, is the focus of this episode, which is divided into two parts.

Part 1 features Verve Research's Founder and Executive Director Natalie Sambhi and Deputy Director Blake Berger, who join Eric to talk about the report's findings on global governance, ASEAN, and great-power competition.

Part 2 features Thammasat University's Prapimphan Chiengkul and Carnegie's Elina Noor, who contributed chapters on the environmental and social costs of critical-mineral mining and digital infrastructure.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Southeast Asia's Role in Global Cooperation
• Reforming ASEAN and International Institutions
• Navigating U.S.-China Great-Power Competition
• Critical Minerals and Environmental Costs
• AI Infrastructure and Local Communities
• Rethinking Security Through Human Needs

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