There's an emerging consensus that China is among the chief beneficiaries of the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. While Beijing has undoubtedly welcomed Washington becoming entangled in yet another war in West Asia, and continues to reap commercial gains from booming exports of electric vehicles and other technologies, the conflict is also exposing the limits of China's geopolitical influence.

China is, first and foremost, a commercial power in the Persian Gulf. Beyond trade and investment, however, it has little diplomatic, political, or security leverage to shape the course of the conflict or influence the region's postwar order.

Jonathan Fulton, an associate professor at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi and author of the China-MENA Newsletter, joins Eric to examine why China's economic footprint in the Gulf has not translated into strategic influence.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Is China really benefiting from the Iran war?
• Why Beijing won't replace the U.S. in the Gulf
• The limits of China's geopolitical influence
• China's commercial strategy in the Middle East
• Gulf views on balancing China and America
• What comes next for China-Gulf relations

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The China-MENA Substack Newsletter: https://chinamenanewsletter.substack.com/
• The Diplomat: After the Iran War, China's Middle East Strategy Will Prioritize the Gulf by Chenjie Song
• The Guardian: China is a clear winner from Trump's war in Middle East, report concludes by Amy Hawkins

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Two weeks ago, a PLA Navy submarine in the South China Sea test-fired a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile that flew 7,300 kilometers before splashing down in the South Pacific. The launch drew sharp criticism from several Pacific Island countries, whose leaders argued that it violated the region's longstanding identity as a nuclear-free zone.

To be clear, the test did not violate international law or established norms. The United States, France, and other nuclear powers have conducted similar missile tests in the Pacific for decades.

Even so, Zhang Denghua, a senior research fellow at the Australian National University's Department of Pacific Affairs and CGSP's non-resident fellow for the Pacific, argues that the launch could erode Beijing's hard-earned influence in the region. He joins Eric to discuss the strategic implications of the test, China's intensifying competition with traditional powers in the Pacific, and why Taiwan remains such a potent issue for Beijing in this part of the world.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• China's unprecedented Pacific missile test
• Why Pacific leaders condemned the launch
• Australia's new Pacific security partnerships
• China's growing rivalry with regional powers
• Papua New Guinea closes Taiwan office
• What's next at the Pacific Islands Forum

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: What To Know About China's Recent Missile Test in the South Pacific by Zhang Denghua
• The China-Global South Project: How Pacific Island Nations Are Capitalizing on Major Power Rivalry by Zhang Denghua
• The China-Global South Project: Japan is Eyeing China's Moves in the Pacific by Zhang Denghua

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X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

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China's suspension of rare earth exports to Japan has now entered its seventh month, with shipments in June again falling to a fraction of their level a year earlier. The restrictions are one sign of a broader collapse in relations between the two countries since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi took office last fall.

The relationship, long marked by tension, deteriorated sharply after Takaichi said that Chinese military action against Taiwan would "threaten Japan's survival." Since then, ties have continued to worsen.

William Yang, senior Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group, joins Eric to explain the politics driving this increasingly dangerous confrontation and why its consequences will be felt across Asia.

📌 Topics Covered in This Episode

• Why China-Japan relations are unraveling
• China's rare earth pressure on Japan
• Taiwan's role in the growing dispute
• Japan's expanding regional security strategy
• The future of the U.S.-Japan alliance
• What's next for Northeast Asia?

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

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