Dan Kobayashi spent 16 years working as a U.S. diplomat focused on African issues, both at posts in Lesotho, Zambia, and Malawi, among others, and at the State Department's intelligence bureau in Washington, D.C. He had a close-up view of how U.S.-Africa policy has evolved over the years, particularly as it relates to China's expanding presence on the continent.

Today, Dan is out of government and works as a geopolitical risk consultant in Geneva, where he also writes for his new Expatriach Substack. He joins Eric, Cobus, and Géraud to share an insider's perspective on the current state of U.S. policy towards Africa and why the notion that Washington is competing with Beijing for influence in the region is outdated.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Inside Washington's Africa policymaking
• Trump's changing approach to Africa
• The China "debt trap" debate
• U.S.-China competition in Africa
• Aid cuts, visas, and diplomacy
• What's next for U.S.-Africa relations?

Show Notes:

• Sign up to The Expatriach Substack
• Expatriarch: USAID Is Unlikely to Be Replaced With Something Better Any Time Soon, So Stop Pretending by Dan Kobayashi
• Expatriarch: My Resignation from the State Department by Dan Kobayashi

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud | @stadenesque

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

On March 1, one day after the U.S. and Israel launched what would become the ongoing war with Iran, Ren Hanjun, a visiting professor at Peking University, posted a video on WeChat predicting that China would emerge as one of the conflict's biggest beneficiaries.

Three months later, that prediction appears increasingly accurate. Demand for Chinese EVs, solar panels, and other clean energy technologies is surging, especially across developing regions such as Southeast Asia and Africa.

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a CGSP non-resident fellow, joins Eric & Cobus to discuss how disruptions to global oil and gas supplies are accelerating the shift toward Chinese renewable energy and mobility solutions.

• China's potential gains from the Iran war
• Energy insecurity and the global transition shift
• Rising demand for Chinese EVs and solar tech
• Southeast Asia and Africa's growing role
• The geopolitics of clean energy supply chains
• Is China the biggest winner of the crisis?

Show Notes:

• The China-Global South Project: "Win or Lose, America Loses": Chinese Analyst Says Trump's Iran Gamble Will Hand Beijing a Strategic Victory
• The China-Global South Project: Why the Global South Will Become New Champions of Climate Action by Li Shuo
• The China-Global South Project: Leading from the "Global Middle": China's Bid to Host the New Ocean Treaty by Li Shuo

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth

China is facing serious headwinds across much of Latin America as the United States ramps up pressure to curb Beijing's engagement in the region. The Chinese have encountered major setbacks in Panama, Mexico, Chile, and potentially in Honduras, where the new government is actively considering switching diplomatic ties back to Taiwan.

But that is not the case in Brazil. Chinese businesses are investing record amounts in South America's largest economy and buying up more of the country's vast reserves of natural resources, including oil, soybeans, and critical minerals.

Tulio Cariello, research and content director at the China-Brazil Business Council, joins Eric from Rio de Janeiro to discuss his latest report on Chinese investment trends in Brazil and explains why the country is now the top destination in the world for Chinese FDI.

📌 Topics Covered in this Episode

• Why Brazil became China's top investment destination
• BYD, EVs, and China's growing auto dominance
• Chinese investments in Brazil's energy and mining sectors
• How U.S.-China tensions are reshaping Latin America
• Brazil's role in China's Global South strategy
• The future of China-Brazil trade and industrial ties

Join the Discussion:

X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject
YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth

Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social

Follow CGSP in French and Spanish:

• French: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine
• Spanish: www.chinalasamericas.com | @ChinaAmericas

Join us on Patreon!
Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth