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  • Why the 3-Month T-Bill Yield Signals Market Anxiety

    Why the 3-Month T-Bill Yield Signals Market Anxiety
    2026/06/05
    Lucas and Luna dissect the surprising rise in the 3-month Treasury bill yield to 3.78 percent, up from 3.77. While most attention is on the 10-year and 2-year, the short end of the curve is flashing a subtle warning. With the 10-year yield at 4.49 and the curve steepening, the 3-month rate—a proxy for funding stress and liquidity—has been creeping higher even as the Fed holds rates steady. Lucas explains what drives this yield, how it relates to repo markets and money market funds, and why a rising 3-month yield can signal that banks are hoarding cash. Luna weighs in with a historical example from September 2019 when similar moves preceded a repo crisis. They also explore what the current 42 basis point spread between the 10-year and 2-year tells us about recession odds, and why the 3-month might be the canary in the coal mine. Along the way, they touch on the Fed's interest on reserve balances at 3.65 and how that anchors the front end. A focused look at the forgotten yield that matters. #3MonthTBill #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #ShortEnd #LiquidityRisk #FundingStress #FedPolicy #IOER #MoneyMarkets #RepoMarket #YieldCurve #CurveSteepening #EconomicIndicator #RecessionSignal #Finance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the 2-Year Yield Tells You About Rate Cuts Now

    What the 2-Year Yield Tells You About Rate Cuts Now
    2026/06/05
    The 2-year Treasury yield has been hovering near 4.08 percent as of early June 2026, and it's sending a very specific signal about when the Fed might actually cut rates. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the short end of the curve matters more than the 10-year for rate-cut timing, how the 2-year yield has moved in lockstep with Fed fund futures, and what the current 42-basis-point spread between the 10-year and 2-year says about market expectations. They also explain the mechanics — why a falling 2-year yield often precedes the first rate cut, and why the current level suggests the market is pricing in one cut later this year, but not a full easing cycle. No jargon, no fluff. Just the bond market signal that matters most right now. #2YearTreasury #RateCuts #FederalReserve #BondMarket #YieldCurve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #TreasuryYields #FixedIncome #Investing #Economics #Finance #FOMC #FedFundsRate #ShortEnd #MarketExpectations #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Why Credit Ratings Are Taking Over Corporate Bond Trading

    Why Credit Ratings Are Taking Over Corporate Bond Trading
    2026/06/04
    Lucas and Luna explore how credit ratings have become the dominant force in corporate bond trading, even surpassing yield in some strategies. They examine the shift from ratings as compliance tools to active trading signals, using recent data on investment-grade ETF flows and the spread between AAA and BBB bonds. The episode breaks down why traders now watch rating agency moves as closely as Fed statements, and what the 41-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year yields tells us about credit market confidence. A focused look at a quiet revolution in fixed-income markets. #CreditRatings #CorporateBonds #InvestmentGrade #SpreadTrading #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #S&P500 #ETFs #LQD #IG #HYG #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #RiskManagement #BondTrading Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • What the MBS Spread Reveals About the Bond Market Now

    What the MBS Spread Reveals About the Bond Market Now
    2026/06/04
    Episode 30 of The Bond Market Podcast examines mortgage-backed securities and the widening MBS spread as a signal for fixed-income investors. Lucas and Luna break down how the spread over Treasuries has moved to 150 basis points, what that implies for prepayment risk and Fed policy, and why agency MBS might be a contrarian play in mid-2026. Using current data—10-year yield at 4.46, 30-year at 4.97, and the TLT ETF at 85.31—they connect the dots between housing, the yield curve, and portfolio strategy. A must-listen for anyone curious about how the bond market's less-talked-about corners reflect broader economic stress. #MBS #MortgageBackedSecurities #BondMarket #Treasuries #YieldCurve #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #PrepaymentRisk #AgencyMBS #SpreadWidening #TLT #IEF #BND #30YearTreasury #10YearYield #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • Why Bond ETFs Like LQD Are Trading Below Par Now

    Why Bond ETFs Like LQD Are Trading Below Par Now
    2026/06/03
    Lucas and Luna dive into why investment-grade corporate bond ETFs like LQD and AGG are trading below their net asset values — and what that tells you about liquidity stress in fixed-income markets. They unpack the mechanics of ETF pricing versus underlying bonds, the role of authorized participants, and why the current discounts are a symptom of a bigger structural shift. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.47 percent and credit spreads still tight, the disconnect in ETF pricing is a signal worth watching. A practical episode for anyone who buys bond ETFs and wants to understand what 'price versus value' really means. #LQD #AGG #BondMarket #ETF #FixedIncome #InvestmentGrade #CorporateBonds #Liquidity #NetAssetValue #AuthorizedParticipant #Spread #Treasury #Yield #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #BondETF #Finance Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • What the Curve Steepening Means for Bond Investors

    What the Curve Steepening Means for Bond Investors
    2026/06/03
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the Treasury yield curve — where the 10-year yield has risen to 4.47% while the 2-year sits at 4.05%, widening the spread to 42 basis points. They explain what drives a steepening curve, how it signals shifting expectations for Fed policy and economic growth, and what bond investors should watch next. Along the way, they discuss the role of the 30-year yield hovering near 5%, the impact on mortgage rates, and why this steepening might be different from past cycles. A practical guide for anyone trying to read the bond market's signals. #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #BondMarket #CurveSteepening #FedPolicy #10YearYield #2YearYield #30YearYield #FixedIncome #Economics #Investing #InterestRates #MortgageRates #BondInvestors #PortfolioStrategy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • How the Fed Funds Rate Anchors Every Bond Yield

    How the Fed Funds Rate Anchors Every Bond Yield
    2026/06/02
    Episode 27 of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo cuts to the foundation: the fed funds rate. Lucas and Luna walk through how a 3.62% effective rate shapes everything from 2-year notes to 30-year bonds, using the latest data from June 2, 2026. They explain why short-term yields track the fed funds rate almost mechanically, how the yield curve's current 42-basis-point spread between 10-year and 2-year reflects rate cut expectations, and what happens when the Fed stops or starts moving. No jargon, no fluff — just a clear mental model for anyone who wants to understand what moves bond prices. Plus, a look at how Greg Abel's recent Berkshire dealmaking fits into the rate environment. If you've ever wondered why Treasury yields seem to dance to the Fed's tune, this episode connects the dots. #FedFundsRate #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #YieldCurve #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #InterestRates #ShortTermRates #LongTermRates #TwoYearYield #TenYearYield #ThirtyYearYield #SpreadTrading #GregAbel #BerkshireHathaway #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • What TIPS Yields Tell You About Real Returns Now

    What TIPS Yields Tell You About Real Returns Now
    2026/06/02
    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and what their real yields signal about the current economic environment. With the 10-year nominal yield flat at 4.45 percent and the 30-year yield nudging 5 percent, the hosts examine the breakeven inflation rate and how TIPS are pricing in future CPI. Lucas walks through the mechanics of inflation-adjusted principal, the difference between nominal and real yields, and why the TIPS ETF (TIP) has been outperforming nominal Treasuries lately. Luna presses on whether TIPS still make sense if inflation continues to moderate. The conversation closes with a look at the inflation risk premium and what the 5-year TIPS yield implies for Fed policy. A natural, investor-focused primer for anyone wondering how to preserve purchasing power in a bond portfolio. #TIPS #TreasuryInflationProtectedSecurities #RealYield #NominalYield #BreakevenInflationRate #TreasuryBonds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #Investing #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #BondETF #TIP #Economics #BondPodcast #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分