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  • Why the 5-Year Treasury Yield Is Leading the Curve Steepening

    Why the 5-Year Treasury Yield Is Leading the Curve Steepening
    2026/07/21
    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explain why the 5-year Treasury yield is surging faster than both the 2-year and 10-year, steepening the curve in an unusual way. With the 5-year yield up nearly 3% in the last five days to 4.37%, they explore how Fed policy uncertainty, inflation expectations, and a crowded short trade are driving this specific part of the curve. Drawing on data from July 21, 2026, they break down why the 5-year note has become the bond market's swing factor — and what it means for investors who think the curve is just a simple long-end story. #5YearTreasury #YieldCurveSteepening #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #InflationExpectations #ShortTrade #CurveDynamics #IntermediateTerm #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondInvesting #RateOutlook #July2026 #TreasuryNotes #MarketStructure Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

    Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
    2026/07/21
    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a persistent anomaly in mid-2026: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.85 percent, twenty-two basis points above the effective Fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. They explain why this gap matters for money market funds, the Fed's control of short-term rates, and what it signals about liquidity and bank reserve scarcity. Drawing on the interest on reserve balances rate of 3.65 percent and the ON RRP facility mechanics, they show how the Treasury's bill issuance surge has created a floor above the Fed's target. The episode also touches on Jamie Dimon's recent warning about Treasuries and why the 3-month bill is becoming the real benchmark for cash investors. #3MonthTreasury #FedFundsRate #TreasuryBills #MoneyMarketFunds #ONRRP #IOER #YieldCurve #LiquidityCrisis #BillIssuance #JamieDimon #TreasuryMarket #FixedIncome #ShortTermRates #CentralBanking #Economics #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
  • Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent

    Why the 30-Year Treasury Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent
    2026/07/20
    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine why the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5 percent in July 2026, reaching 5.12 percent as of this week. They explore the key drivers: term premium expansion, fiscal deficit concerns, and the Fed's reduced influence at the long end. The hosts discuss how this move diverges from the 2-year yield and what it signals for mortgage rates, pension funds, and the broader economy. They also touch on the steepening yield curve and why long-term bond investors are demanding more compensation for duration risk. With data showing the 30-year yield up 5 basis points in the last five days, Lucas and Luna break down whether this is a structural shift or a temporary spike. A must-listen for fixed-income investors trying to navigate a world where the long bond is breaking out. #30YearTreasury #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #YieldCurve #TermPremium #FederalReserve #Inflation #DurationRisk #FixedIncome #LongBond #BondInvesting #Steepening #FiscalDeficit #Economy #Finance #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • Why the 3-Month Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

    Why the 3-Month Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
    2026/07/20
    The 3-month Treasury yield has been stubbornly sitting above the Fed funds rate for months, and it's not just a technical glitch. In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into why short-term rates are breaking from the central bank's target, what it says about liquidity in the repo market, and how the Fed's interest on reserve balances is losing its grip. With the 3-month yield at 3.84% and the Fed funds rate flat at 3.63%, the gap is signaling that the plumbing of money markets is under stress. Using fresh data from July 2026, they walk through the role of Treasury bill supply, money market fund flows, and the Fed's reverse repo facility. If you've been wondering why the yield curve's short end feels broken, this one's for you. #3MonthTreasury #FedFundsRate #YieldCurve #MoneyMarkets #RepoMarket #Liquidity #TreasuryBills #ReverseRepo #IOER #MoneyMarketFunds #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #CentralBanking #LiquidityCrisis #ShortTermRates Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the 2-Year Treasury Yield Became the Real Fed Signal

    How the 2-Year Treasury Yield Became the Real Fed Signal
    2026/07/19
    In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore how the 2-year Treasury yield has overtaken the Fed funds rate as the market's true compass for monetary policy. With the 2-year yield sitting at 4.16 percent and the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent, the gap is sending a clear message. The hosts break down why bond traders are pricing in a higher terminal rate than the Fed projects, what the 0.53 percent spread means for inflation expectations, and how this shift changes the way investors should interpret yield curve signals. They also touch on the Dallas Fed President's recent call for 'modestly' higher rates and the broader disconnect between central bank communication and market reality. #BondMarket #Treasuries #YieldCurve #Fed #TwoYearYield #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #BondInvestors #MarketSignals #CentralBank #LorieLogan #DallasFed #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Investing #Macro Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    5 分
  • Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

    Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate
    2026/07/19
    It's mid-July 2026 and something strange is happening in short-term debt markets: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.84 percent, a full 21 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63. Typically, the two move in lockstep, but today's gap signals that money market funds are demanding a premium for reasons that go beyond rate expectations. This episode dives into the mechanics — the role of the Treasury's General Account, the shrinking supply of T-bills after debt-ceiling resolution, and the quiet influence of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility. Lucas and Luna walk through why this spread matters for anyone holding cash or short-duration bonds, and how it connects to the broader steepening yield curve. Specific data from July 17, 2026 anchors the conversation. #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #MoneyMarkets #ShortTermBonds #YieldCurve #TreasuryGeneralAccount #ReverseRepo #TBills #Liquidity #BondMarket #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast #FixedIncome #CashManagement Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.5 Percent

    How the 10-Year Yield Is Topping 4.5 Percent
    2026/07/18
    The 10-year Treasury yield has pushed above 4.5 percent for the first time since 2023, and it's not because of the Fed. Lucas and Luna unpack the mechanics behind the move: a surge in term premium driven by fiscal deficits and debt issuance, while short-term rate expectations stay anchored. They explain what the 2-year versus 10-year spread is really saying about the economy, and why the bond market is now leading the Fed rather than the other way around. Along the way, they reference Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's recent call for higher rates and what it means for the yield curve. This is a focused look at the one number that matters right now in fixed income. #10YearYield #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #TermPremium #YieldCurve #FedPolicy #LorieLogan #FiscalDeficit #DebtIssuance #FixedIncome #Economics #Finance #InvestmentStrategy #Macro #InterestRates #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #BondMarketPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    6 分
  • Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent in July 2026

    Why the 30-Year Yield Is Breaking Above 5 Percent in July 2026
    2026/07/18
    The 30-year Treasury yield has pushed above 5 percent, a level not sustained since before the 2008 financial crisis. In this episode, Lucas and Luna examine what's driving the break — a term premium shock, not a growth story. They look at how the 5.06 percent yield is reshaping mortgage pricing, pension fund assumptions, and the logic of long-duration bonds. Using data from July 18, 2026, they walk through the gap between the 30-year and the 10-year, and what it says about the market's view of long-run fiscal risk. This isn't a repeat of the 2020-2025 rate cycle; it's a new regime where the long end has decoupled from Fed policy. #30YearTreasury #LongBond #YieldCurve #TermPremium #TreasuryYields #BondMarket #FixedIncome #FedPolicy #PensionFunds #MortgageRates #InflationRisk #FiscalDeficit #DurationRisk #Economics #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #July2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分