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Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

Why the 3-Month Bill Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

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In this episode of The Bond Market Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a persistent anomaly in mid-2026: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.85 percent, twenty-two basis points above the effective Fed funds rate of 3.63 percent. They explain why this gap matters for money market funds, the Fed's control of short-term rates, and what it signals about liquidity and bank reserve scarcity. Drawing on the interest on reserve balances rate of 3.65 percent and the ON RRP facility mechanics, they show how the Treasury's bill issuance surge has created a floor above the Fed's target. The episode also touches on Jamie Dimon's recent warning about Treasuries and why the 3-month bill is becoming the real benchmark for cash investors. #3MonthTreasury #FedFundsRate #TreasuryBills #MoneyMarketFunds #ONRRP #IOER #YieldCurve #LiquidityCrisis #BillIssuance #JamieDimon #TreasuryMarket #FixedIncome #ShortTermRates #CentralBanking #Economics #BondMarket #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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