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Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

Why the 3-Month Treasury Yield Is Sticky Above the Fed Funds Rate

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It's mid-July 2026 and something strange is happening in short-term debt markets: the 3-month Treasury yield is sitting at 3.84 percent, a full 21 basis points above the effective fed funds rate of 3.63. Typically, the two move in lockstep, but today's gap signals that money market funds are demanding a premium for reasons that go beyond rate expectations. This episode dives into the mechanics — the role of the Treasury's General Account, the shrinking supply of T-bills after debt-ceiling resolution, and the quiet influence of the Fed's overnight reverse repo facility. Lucas and Luna walk through why this spread matters for anyone holding cash or short-duration bonds, and how it connects to the broader steepening yield curve. Specific data from July 17, 2026 anchors the conversation. #TreasuryYields #FedFundsRate #MoneyMarkets #ShortTermBonds #YieldCurve #TreasuryGeneralAccount #ReverseRepo #TBills #Liquidity #BondMarket #Economics #MonetaryPolicy #July2026 #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheBondMarketPodcast #FixedIncome #CashManagement Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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