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Episode #1222: Today we break down Cox Automotive’s 2026 forecast and why fragmentation is becoming the industry’s defining theme. We also cover California regulators taking aim at Tesla’s Autopilot language.

Show Notes with links:

• Cox Automotive says the auto industry beat expectations in 2025, but 2026 will be shaped by fragmentation everywhere—from consumers and labor to policy, EVs, and AI. The result is softer volumes, tighter margins, and a market that rewards precision over optimism.
  • The 5 big forces at play: A bifurcated consumer trading down, a stagnant job market, inflation easing but Fed uncertainty lingering, shifting policy and an EV incentive cliff, and AI hitting an operational inflection point—all pulling the market in different directions.
  • New-vehicle volumes reset lower: Cox forecasts 15.8 million SAAR in 2026, down 2.4% YoY, signaling the high-15 million range as the new normal rather than a temporary dip.
  • Retail, fleet, and leasing cool: New retail sales fall about 1.5%, fleet declines more sharply, and lease penetration drops toward 21%, the lowest level in three years as EV tax credits and leasing loopholes disappear.
  • Used remains the pressure valve: Total used sales dip roughly 1%, but tight retail inventory and affordability concerns keep demand steady, pushing more shoppers toward lower-priced vehicles.
  • Wholesale values normalize: Cox expects the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to rise 2% by the end of 2026, pointing to normal depreciation—with growing EV volume adding pricing complexity.

• California regulators ruled Tesla misled consumers with its “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” marketing, giving the automaker 90 days to fix its language. The case briefly threatened Tesla’s ability to sell cars in the state, but stops short of halting production.
  • The DMV ordered a 30-day suspension of Tesla’s dealer license, which would prevent Tesla from selling vehicles directly to consumers in California if it goes into effect.
  • That dealer suspension is stayed for 90 days, meaning Tesla can keep selling cars as long as it updates its advertising and disclosures within that window.
  • A separate manufacturing license suspension—which could have affected Tesla’s ability to build vehicles in California—was permanently stayed and will not take effect.
  • Regulators say Tesla’s use of “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” implied autonomy that doesn’t exist, creating unsafe assumptions for drivers.
  • Tesla pushed back strongly, saying no consumer complained and stating, “Tesla has never misled consumers.”

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Episode #1221: Today we break down GM’s post-Cruise autonomy reboot, why used EVs are quietly outperforming new ones as buyers regain confidence, and how a soaring SpaceX valuation has pushed Elon Musk’s wealth past $650 billion.

• A year after pulling the plug on Cruise robotaxis, GM is rebooting autonomy with a very different endgame. Instead of ride-hailing, the focus is now on hands-free, eyes-off driver assistance designed to scale across consumer vehicles.
  • GM has deployed 138 test vehicles — Cadillac Escalade IQs and GMC Yukons — equipped with lidar, radar, cameras, and advanced computing to collect real-world driving data across the U.S.
  • Cruise’s technology and talent have been merged with GM’s Super Cruise team, signaling a full pivot away from robotaxis toward scalable driver-assistance for retail customers.
  • The goal is a Level 3 “eyes-off” highway system debuting on the Escalade IQ around 2028, with plans to expand across brands and vehicle sizes.
  • Jason Ekelmann of GM’s advanced vehicle integration team: “It’s that we’re coming together to do something unique and awesome and really, really hard.”

• November revealed a split EV market. New EV buyers slowed down and waited for clarity, while used EV shoppers kept moving. The contrast highlights where confidence is building — and where the industry is still adjusting to life after heavy incentives.
  • New EV sales cooled to about 70,000 units as shoppers paused amid tax credit changes, pushing new inventory to 149 days’ supply and forcing incentives back into play.
  • Used EVs told a different story, with sales up 14% year over year to more than 28,000 units in November.
  • Used EV pricing averaged around $36,000, with many mainstream models now below $30,000, while supply stayed tight at 46 days, supporting healthier resale confidence.
  • Cox Automotive’s Stephanie Valdez Streaty framed it simply, saying the industry is “adjusting to a post-incentive environment.”

• Elon Musk just crossed a line no one else ever has. A new SpaceX valuation pushed his net worth past $650 billion, moving him closer to becoming the world’s first trillionaire
  • SpaceX launched a tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion, doubling its valuation since August and setting the stage for a potential 2026 IPO that could value it near $1.5 trillion.
  • Musk owns roughly 42% of SpaceX, making that stake worth about $336 billion and now the largest single contributor to his net worth.

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3:40 GM Building

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Episode #1220: Ford slams the brakes on big EV bets and kills the Lightning, pivoting to hybrids and EREVs. HGreg proves luxury buyers don’t need a separate dealership—just a smarter one. GM learns loyalty points are real money after a rewards loophole wipes out a loan.

Show Notes with links:

• Ford just hit the brakes on its EV ambitions, announcing nearly $19.5 billion in charges as it pivots away from loss-heavy electric trucks.
  • Ford will discontinue the all-electric F-150 Lightning, replacing it with an extended-range electric version that includes a gas engine.
  • Its Kentucky EV battery plant will be repurposed to produce stationary battery storage for utilities, data centers, and renewable energy projects.
  • The company has already lost $13 billion on EVs since 2023, and intends to shift to more hybrid and EREV models, including a mid-size pickup expected to launch in 2027.
  • CEO Jim Farley: “Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting. “We now know enough about the U.S. market where we have a lot more certainty in this second inning”

• Canada-based dealer group HGreg has opened a Lux boutique inside its flagship Orlando used-car store, betting that high-line buyers want a premium experience without leaving the pre-owned ecosystem.
  • The new HGreg Lux Orlando is a dealership-within-a-dealership, marking the group’s fifth Lux location across Florida and California.
  • HGreg is leaning into convenience and flexibility with same-day delivery, contactless buying, and even cryptocurrency payments.
  • CEO John Hairabedian framed the move as emotional as much as strategic, saying, “For many of us, driving a luxury car is one of life’s most memorable moments.”

• GM’s loyalty program briefly turned into free money. A loophole in GM Rewards let users generate millions of points without spending a dime—most notably a Cadillac Escalade-V owner who used nearly $60,000 worth of points to pay down a GM Financial loan before GM shut it down.
  • Users could earn up to 16,000 free points per account by completing surveys and watching GM videos, then repeat the process by creating new accounts.
  • Points were instantly transferable, allowing millions to be stacked in minutes and funneled into a single account.
  • The biggest problem for GM: points could be redeemed on service, accessories, and even vehicle loans—not just swag.
  • GM fixed the exploit but honored the points, taking a page from the airlines: protect the program, not just the balance sheet.

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Episode #1219: Carvana adds another CDJR store as its retail expansion heats up. Mexico hits Chinese auto imports with a crushing 50% tariff. And Tesla tests its first fully driverless vehicle on the streets of Austin — no humans required.

• Carvana’s push into franchised retail continues as it acquires South Atlanta CDJR‑Fiat, marking its fourth traditional dealership buy of 2025. Once known for vending machines and used cars, Carvana is rapidly becoming a notable player in new‑car retail.
  • The store, now Carvana CDJR of South Atlanta, sits in Union City, GA, just outside Atlanta.
  • It was acquired from Houston‑based ZT Corporate, a group ranked 132nd among U.S. dealership organizations.
  • The aggressive expansion comes on the heels of a Q3 record: $5.6B in revenue, up 55%, and 155,941 used units sold—a 44% increase YoY.
  • Carvana has said it’s “always experimenting” and views select dealership acquisitions as tests to learn how to “provide great customer experiences” in a franchise setting.

• Mexico is drawing a bold line in the sand, approving sweeping new tariffs with some aimed squarely at imported Chinese cars.
  • Chinese vehicles will now face a 50% import tariff, the highest among 1,400 affected products.
  • The policy is seen as a direct defense against a surge of low-cost Chinese EVs and ICE vehicles entering Latin America.
  • Mexico’s auto industry has voiced support, fearing China’s growing presence could erode market share and local jobs.
  • Beijing slammed the move as “protectionist” and warned of possible retaliation.

• The future Elon Musk promised is officially rolling through Austin — driverless, empty, and already controversial. Tesla has begun testing its Robotaxi platform without a human behind the wheel or even a safety monitor in the car, marking its most aggressive autonomy move yet.
  • The sighting appears to involve a Model Y testbed rigged for Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi platform.
  • Elon Musk confirmed: “Testing is underway with no occupant in the car.”
  • This marks the first known on-road test without a safety driver or passenger.
  • According to NHTSA filings, Tesla’s Robotaxi tests in Austin have already logged a crash every ~62,000 miles — with safety monitors still inside.

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Episode #1218: Kyle Mountsier and Chris Reeves jump into the middle of December to talk about the all-team in-person meeting that More Than Cars had this past week.

Then they talk about a simple act of giving back. Carla Cosenzi, President of TommyCar Auto Group showed up to local first responders with cookies. As she said, its "a small gesture compared to the huge impact they make every day."

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1217: Ionna ramps up charging despite slumping EV demand, VW rethinks its electric strategy with range extenders, and a Waymo ride turns into a delivery room as a newborn arrives before first responders.

Show Notes with links:

• Ionna—the eight-automaker EV charging company—keeps speeding up its nationwide charging ambitions even as EV demand cools. With reliability still a major pain point for buyers, the group is betting big that better infrastructure will unlock future EV sales and stabilize the retail market.
  • The JV plans 30,000 charging bays by 2030, aiming to rival Tesla’s Supercharger network in quality and convenience.
  • 49 stations are already open, with 1,200 bays open or under construction and 4,000 sites under contract.
  • Tesla still dominates fast charging and is projected to grow to 69,000 plugs by 2030, but analysts expect Ionna to secure the No. 2 spot.
  • Automakers view the investment as essential, especially as federal incentives shrink and consumer hesitancy grows around public charging reliability.
  • “If we’re successful, we think this will unlock the market in terms of folks wanting to buy an EV, because now they have a network that goes with it,” said CEO Seth Cutler.
• After early promises with the ID.4, demand for VW EVs has softened, models are being pulled, and prices are heading in the wrong direction. Now VW is eyeing gas-assisted EVs as a potential lifeline.
  • The ID.7 has been scrapped for North America, and the ID. Buzz has underperformed, pushing some models from big markups to nearly $20,000 discounts.
  • VW says consumer demand will dictate where and when range-extended models appear, noting the concept is already reserved for future platforms.
  • As Ford CEO Jim Farley put it, range extenders deliver EV driving “without range anxiety… and comparable to an ICE vehicle in terms of cost.”
• A routine autonomous ride turned into a delivery room when a pregnant passenger in San Francisco gave birth in the back of a Waymo. The car still made it to the hospital — just a little more “occupied” than when it started.
  • Waymo detected “unusual activity” and called to check in, then alerted 911 once it realized a birth was underway.
  • The vehicle reached UCSF Hospital before first responders could catch up, marking at least the second baby ever born in a Waymo.
  • “We’re proud to be a trusted ride for moments big and small… serving riders from just seconds old to many years young,” Waymo said.

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0:00 Intro with Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier

0:50 Recapping the week at More Than Cars

3:10 Upcoming Episodes of Auto Collabs

3:38 Ionna Aiming For

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Episode #1216: Today we dig into the tightening-but-shifting new-car inventory landscape, explore Nissan’s bold attempt to rediscover its “North Star”, and watch Target leapfrog competitors by baking full-on AI shopping directly into ChatGPT.

Show Notes with links:

• November brought a slight dip in overall new-vehicle inventory, but the real headline for dealers is how quickly anything under $25K is evaporating from lots—and how quickly EV days’ supply is rising. Here’s the breakdown:
  • U.S. new-vehicle inventory fell 1.6% to 3.09M units, but days’ supply ticked up from 70 to 73.
  • Sub-$25K vehicles are practically mythical—spending 1.5 days on lots.
  • EV supply ballooned from 107 to 126 days
  • Hybrids sit at a 60-day supply, ICE vehicles at 75 days; minivans remain leanest at 58 days.
  • Toyota continues to run the tightest ship in the industry with 31 days of supply.

• Christian Meunier isn’t pulling punches—Nissan has been drifting for years, and he says the U.S. turnaround now depends on sharper execution, stronger product, and yes…better dealer performance.
  • Meunier says Nissan had “no North star, no vision and no direction,” prompting him to bring headquarters staff back in-office four days a week to accelerate decisions and rebuild momentum.
  • U.S. sales have fallen 40% in a decade, market share is down to 6.4%, and heavy discounting has trained shoppers to view Nissan as “the cheap one.”
  • Nissan needs at least 7–8% retail share to support its 1,067 U.S. stores, and if the brand can’t lift demand, fewer dealers may be necessary.
  • “Christian is the right man for the job. It’s just a hard job,” said dealer council lead Mike Rezi.

• Target is jumping headfirst into AI commerce by embedding its shopping experience directly into ChatGPT, building on OpenAI’s growing presence in e-commerce with Shopify and Etsy integrations.
  • Users can search, add to cart, and check out via ChatGPT using their Target account.
  • The integration supports drive-thru and pickup orders within the chat interface.
  • This move mirrors Walmart’s AI ambitions, but Target is first to market with a confirmed rollout.
  • “Target is a great example of what that shift looks like when it’s done with ambition and speed,” said Fidji Simo, OpenAI CEO of Applications.

• Thank you to today’s sponsor, Mia. Capture more revenue, protect CSI, and never miss a call or connection again with 24/7 phone coverage and texting (SMS) follow-up for sales, service, and reception. Learn more at https://www.mia.inc/

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Episode #1215: Today we break down why monthly payments keep climbing despite improving fundamentals, VinFast’s shrinking U.S. footprint as it pivots overseas, and VaynerMedia’s Anti-Trend Report showing why trend-chasing is officially dead in 2026.

Show Notes with links:

• New-vehicle payments hit a November record at $760, but underneath the headline, several affordability pressures are actually starting to ease. Softer interest rates and strong used-vehicle values are helping cushion buyers as the market normalizes into year-end.
  • Rates dipped to 6.1% and robust used values are keeping trade-in equity near historic highs.
  • Dealer profits stayed steady at $2,161 per vehicle, showing margin stability.
  • However, negative equity rose to 27% of all trades and lease expirations are down 15% YoY and 50% vs. 2023
  • “How aggressively manufacturers choose to adjust discounting and promotional activity during December will be critical in shaping the close of 2025.” said J.D. Power’s Thomas King.

• VinFast’s retreat from the U.S. market is accelerating as its retail network falls below two dozen active stores. Falling sales, stalled product plans, and shifting global priorities are prompting dealers to exit while the brand refocuses on markets where demand is stronger.
  • Holman’s North Carolina store — VinFast’s first U.S. franchise — ends sales Dec. 31, marking the third dealer exit in six months.
  • U.S. registrations fell 57% through October, even as overall EV sales grew 11% in the same period.
  • Several listed stores show no inventory or are “coming soon,” and many active rooftops have 15 or fewer vehicles in stock.
  • “Given the tariff situation and the instability in the EV market, we just need to see how that settles before we push hard in the U.S.,” said VinFast chairwoman Thuy Thu Le.

• VaynerMedia’s new Anti-Trend Report argues that social trends are collapsing faster than ever, making 2026 the year brands stop chasing virality and start pursuing genuine relevance. With algorithms fragmenting attention, emotional connection becomes the new competitive advantage.
  • The report says trend fatigue is accelerating — trends now fade 14x faster than they used to, and 1/3 of consumers think brands “jumping on viral trends” is embarrassing.
  • Platforms are blurring: TikTok layouts show up on Instagram, Facebook-style text posts appear everywhere — meaning content format matters more than platform identity.
  • Audiences expect authenticity, not broadcasts; brands must create two-way social conversations, not passive content streams.
  • “In 2026, the brands that win won’t be those who shout the loudest, but those who show up the most real.” — Allan Blair, SVP & Head of Strategy, VaynerMedia

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