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Episode #1222: Today we break down Cox Automotive’s 2026 forecast and why fragmentation is becoming the industry’s defining theme. We also cover California regulators taking aim at Tesla’s Autopilot language.

Show Notes with links:

• Cox Automotive says the auto industry beat expectations in 2025, but 2026 will be shaped by fragmentation everywhere—from consumers and labor to policy, EVs, and AI. The result is softer volumes, tighter margins, and a market that rewards precision over optimism.
  • The 5 big forces at play: A bifurcated consumer trading down, a stagnant job market, inflation easing but Fed uncertainty lingering, shifting policy and an EV incentive cliff, and AI hitting an operational inflection point—all pulling the market in different directions.
  • New-vehicle volumes reset lower: Cox forecasts 15.8 million SAAR in 2026, down 2.4% YoY, signaling the high-15 million range as the new normal rather than a temporary dip.
  • Retail, fleet, and leasing cool: New retail sales fall about 1.5%, fleet declines more sharply, and lease penetration drops toward 21%, the lowest level in three years as EV tax credits and leasing loopholes disappear.
  • Used remains the pressure valve: Total used sales dip roughly 1%, but tight retail inventory and affordability concerns keep demand steady, pushing more shoppers toward lower-priced vehicles.
  • Wholesale values normalize: Cox expects the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index to rise 2% by the end of 2026, pointing to normal depreciation—with growing EV volume adding pricing complexity.

• California regulators ruled Tesla misled consumers with its “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” marketing, giving the automaker 90 days to fix its language. The case briefly threatened Tesla’s ability to sell cars in the state, but stops short of halting production.
  • The DMV ordered a 30-day suspension of Tesla’s dealer license, which would prevent Tesla from selling vehicles directly to consumers in California if it goes into effect.
  • That dealer suspension is stayed for 90 days, meaning Tesla can keep selling cars as long as it updates its advertising and disclosures within that window.
  • A separate manufacturing license suspension—which could have affected Tesla’s ability to build vehicles in California—was permanently stayed and will not take effect.
  • Regulators say Tesla’s use of “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving Capability” implied autonomy that doesn’t exist, creating unsafe assumptions for drivers.
  • Tesla pushed back strongly, saying no consumer complained and stating, “Tesla has never misled consumers.”

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Episode #1221: Today we break down GM’s post-Cruise autonomy reboot, why used EVs are quietly outperforming new ones as buyers regain confidence, and how a soaring SpaceX valuation has pushed Elon Musk’s wealth past $650 billion.

• A year after pulling the plug on Cruise robotaxis, GM is rebooting autonomy with a very different endgame. Instead of ride-hailing, the focus is now on hands-free, eyes-off driver assistance designed to scale across consumer vehicles.
  • GM has deployed 138 test vehicles — Cadillac Escalade IQs and GMC Yukons — equipped with lidar, radar, cameras, and advanced computing to collect real-world driving data across the U.S.
  • Cruise’s technology and talent have been merged with GM’s Super Cruise team, signaling a full pivot away from robotaxis toward scalable driver-assistance for retail customers.
  • The goal is a Level 3 “eyes-off” highway system debuting on the Escalade IQ around 2028, with plans to expand across brands and vehicle sizes.
  • Jason Ekelmann of GM’s advanced vehicle integration team: “It’s that we’re coming together to do something unique and awesome and really, really hard.”

• November revealed a split EV market. New EV buyers slowed down and waited for clarity, while used EV shoppers kept moving. The contrast highlights where confidence is building — and where the industry is still adjusting to life after heavy incentives.
  • New EV sales cooled to about 70,000 units as shoppers paused amid tax credit changes, pushing new inventory to 149 days’ supply and forcing incentives back into play.
  • Used EVs told a different story, with sales up 14% year over year to more than 28,000 units in November.
  • Used EV pricing averaged around $36,000, with many mainstream models now below $30,000, while supply stayed tight at 46 days, supporting healthier resale confidence.
  • Cox Automotive’s Stephanie Valdez Streaty framed it simply, saying the industry is “adjusting to a post-incentive environment.”

• Elon Musk just crossed a line no one else ever has. A new SpaceX valuation pushed his net worth past $650 billion, moving him closer to becoming the world’s first trillionaire
  • SpaceX launched a tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion, doubling its valuation since August and setting the stage for a potential 2026 IPO that could value it near $1.5 trillion.
  • Musk owns roughly 42% of SpaceX, making that stake worth about $336 billion and now the largest single contributor to his net worth.

• Thank you to today’s sponsor, Mia. Capture more revenue, protect CSI, and never miss a call or connection again with 24/7 phone coverage and texting (SMS) follow-up for sales, service, and reception. Learn more at https://www.mia.inc/

0:00 Intro with Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
3:40 GM Building

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

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Episode #1220: Ford slams the brakes on big EV bets and kills the Lightning, pivoting to hybrids and EREVs. HGreg proves luxury buyers don’t need a separate dealership—just a smarter one. GM learns loyalty points are real money after a rewards loophole wipes out a loan.

Show Notes with links:

• Ford just hit the brakes on its EV ambitions, announcing nearly $19.5 billion in charges as it pivots away from loss-heavy electric trucks.
  • Ford will discontinue the all-electric F-150 Lightning, replacing it with an extended-range electric version that includes a gas engine.
  • Its Kentucky EV battery plant will be repurposed to produce stationary battery storage for utilities, data centers, and renewable energy projects.
  • The company has already lost $13 billion on EVs since 2023, and intends to shift to more hybrid and EREV models, including a mid-size pickup expected to launch in 2027.
  • CEO Jim Farley: “Instead of plowing billions into the future knowing these large EVs will never make money, we are pivoting. “We now know enough about the U.S. market where we have a lot more certainty in this second inning”

• Canada-based dealer group HGreg has opened a Lux boutique inside its flagship Orlando used-car store, betting that high-line buyers want a premium experience without leaving the pre-owned ecosystem.
  • The new HGreg Lux Orlando is a dealership-within-a-dealership, marking the group’s fifth Lux location across Florida and California.
  • HGreg is leaning into convenience and flexibility with same-day delivery, contactless buying, and even cryptocurrency payments.
  • CEO John Hairabedian framed the move as emotional as much as strategic, saying, “For many of us, driving a luxury car is one of life’s most memorable moments.”

• GM’s loyalty program briefly turned into free money. A loophole in GM Rewards let users generate millions of points without spending a dime—most notably a Cadillac Escalade-V owner who used nearly $60,000 worth of points to pay down a GM Financial loan before GM shut it down.
  • Users could earn up to 16,000 free points per account by completing surveys and watching GM videos, then repeat the process by creating new accounts.
  • Points were instantly transferable, allowing millions to be stacked in minutes and funneled into a single account.
  • The biggest problem for GM: points could be redeemed on service, accessories, and even vehicle loans—not just swag.
  • GM fixed the exploit but honored the points, taking a page from the airlines: protect the program, not just the balance sheet.

Thank you to today’s sponsor, Mia. Capture more revenue, protect CSI, and never miss a call or connection again with 24/7 phone coverage and texting (SMS) follow-up for sales, service, and reception. Learn more at https

Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.

Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/

JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/