Canadians’ spending heated up fast this summer. Excluding autos and gasoline stations, total purchases saw the largest quarterly increase in four years despite headwinds from tariffs and a soft labour market.

What underpinned the strength in Q2? Did the increase vary across different age groups? What role did the FIFA World Cup play? And, where do we see spending heading later this year?

In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan sits down with economists Abbey Xu and Rachel Battaglia, co-authors of the Q2 RBC Consumer Spending Signals report, to break down the latest trends and what they mean for the Canadian economy.

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Rising consumer prices since the pandemic have added to significant cost-of-living challenges for households in North America.

Prices for essential items like food and shelter in Canada and the U.S. have risen at a faster pace since 2020 than average hourly income, limiting the growth in households’ purchasing power.

Those challenges have moderated in recent years, but the path has not been even. In 2026, soaring global oil prices, and fuel costs at home once again raised consumer prices, but the central banks have not rushed to react.

Join us in this special podcast and video edition of the 10-Minute Take, where RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down cost-of-living challenges.

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The first Joint Review of CUSMA is underway. With U.S. tariffs still in place and trade tensions high, there's significant anxiety about what happens next.

The good news: No extension on July 1 doesn't mean a termination. CUSMA won't expire until 2036, and meantime, the agreement and its related exemptions will keep functioning as is. What follows is likely a lengthy negotiation with key trade irritants like Rules of Origin requirements and potential demands for strategic alignment with U.S. trade goals emerging as focal points.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

• How much protection CUSMA is currently providing Canadian exporters.
• Why the worst-case scenario of a termination has grown less damaging to Canada's economy.
• Key pain points that could surface during the negotiations.
• What this review means as a precedent for future U.S. trade agreement renewals.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting in June marked Kevin Warsh's first as Chair—and it came with a clear shift in focus. Inflation dominated the press conference, while the labor market received minimal attention.

The changes went beyond tone. Forward guidance was removed from the Statement, the easing bias is gone, and half of FOMC participants view at least one interest rate hike as appropriate in 2026—up from a majority expecting cuts just three months ago.

In this episode of The 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

• What Chair Warsh signaled about his approach—and how it differs from Jerome Powell's.
• Why current data supports a focus on inflation with core Personal Consumption Expenditures above 3% and the labor market holding steady.
• How the statement shifted from an easing bias to a hawkish lean since March, and what RBC expects for interest rates through 2027.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has officially started with games spanning cities across North America, drawing spectators from all over the world. But as it creates buzz, it won't distract from the headwinds still facing Canada’s economy.

In Q1, gross domestic product contracted by a small annualized 0.1% to mark a second consecutive decline. However, the contraction is marginal and narrow—not the kind of sharp, persistent, and broad-based deterioration typical of recessions in the past.

The World Cup in coming months will give Canada's economy a temporary lift. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down Canada's underlying economic trends as FIFA games gets underway.

U.S. headline inflation just posted its hottest print in nearly three years, driven by surging energy prices and sticky core inflation pressures.

At the same time, labour market data is looking solid, and growth hasn’t meaningfully slowed. We have yet to see signs of Stagflation Lite materializing, and don’t expect the oil price shock will tip the economy into a recession.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan explain:

• Whether hot US inflation is purely an energy story—or if pressures are building beneath the surface.
• Why the Fed stays put even as the labour market holds up.
• What it would take from a jobs’ perspective to trigger a recession in the U.S.—and why it’s unlikely.

Softening in Canada’s headline labour market data this year masks a more encouraging underlying story.

Job losses remain concentrated in tariff-exposed sectors, layoffs are declining, and hiring is beginning to rebound—all signs of resilience beneath the surface.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:

• What hidden unemployment means and whether it's rising.
• How "low hire, low fire" dynamics disproportionately affect younger job seekers.
• Why labour supply is expected to tighten as hiring demand recovers later in 2026.

U.S. productivity growth is strong, business investment in information processing and equipment has surged, and headlines about AI replacing jobs are growing louder.

But, how much of this is actually attributable to AI and how much is noise?

Reality is nuanced. We’re still largely in the building out phase of AI investment, and it’s too soon to say whether AI has led to a structural break in productivity. Fears of widespread job displacement may dominate the narrative, but labor market data tells a different story.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC U.S. economists Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin discuss:

• Whether recent productivity gains can be attributed to adoption of AI or reflect other factors.
• How AI-related capital spending is influencing business investment.
• What data shows about AI's impact on jobs, and whether labor displacement is happening.