Global oil prices remain high as the Middle East conflict persists, raising questions about a potential comeback of the broad-based inflation Canada experienced during and after the pandemic.

But, this shock is fundamentally different from the past. Unlike 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war compounded systemic supply chain disruptions from pandemic lockdowns, today's commodity shock is narrowly concentrated in oil, and unfolding at a time when global supply chains are more resilient.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

• How the scope and scale of the commodity price shock differs from the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.
• What localized and contained supply chain disruptions this year could mean for global inflation.
• Why Canadian consumers could be less tolerant of rising prices than they were in 2022.

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.

This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

• Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.
• How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.
• What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles.

If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:

1. Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.
2. Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.
3. Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.