Eurozone inflation reached 4% in October, with energy prices up nearly 21%. The ECB is expected to raise its main rate a quarter point to 2.75% in December.

You can also read this week's Supermacro Briefing on Substack.

Democrats regained both congressional chambers, and Brent fell to around $95 as traders bet on Trump’s reluctance to restart the Iran war. Markets still price only a 12% chance of normal Hormuz traffic before February 1, 2027.

U.S.-mediated Ukraine talks on November 10–11 face incompatible security demands. Their framework preserves NATO’s central role and alliance choices, while Moscow demands a rollback of post-1997 expansion and rejects foreign troops in Ukraine.

The Grapevine covers Chas Freeman’s claim, relayed by Glenn Diesen’s Substack, that Netanyahu is pressing for nuclear use against Iran. Freeman argues nuclear use would accelerate proliferation rather than force Iranian surrender.

00:00:13 This week's read

00:01:14 Finance

00:08:02 Geopolitics and International Security

00:20:56 Tech & AI

00:31:52 Biosphere

00:33:24 Grapevine

This podcast is a narration of the weekly Supermacro Briefing, with new episodes released every Sunday. Read and subscribe to the Supermacro Briefing on Substack: https://supermacrobriefing.com.

Hormuz normalization moved closer in market pricing, but oil costs rose while global liquidity weakened.

You can also read this week's Supermacro Briefing on Substack.

Kalshi’s implied date for normal Hormuz traffic moved earlier, reversing the previous briefing’s delay. The Economist reports that recovering Gulf exports did not prevent Brent rising to $115: rebounding Chinese imports absorbed extra supply, while tanker-intensive transfers outside Hormuz tightened vessel availability and raised freight costs for Chinese buyers.

Michael Howell of Capital Wars reports declining global liquidity, compounded by a stronger dollar and weakening collateral values. He assesses that dependence on a record-high collateral multiplier makes the financial system increasingly fragile as collateral weakens.

The Grapevine covers Michael Lewis’s scenario of lost confidence in U.S. government debt: higher financing costs could force inflation or repudiation, with no external backstop large enough to rescue Washington.

00:00:12 This week's read

00:01:12 Finance

00:08:26 Geopolitics and International Security

00:20:19 Tech & AI

00:28:12 Biosphere

00:31:24 Grapevine

This podcast is a narration of the weekly Supermacro Briefing, with new episodes released every Sunday. Read and subscribe to the Supermacro Briefing on Substack: https://supermacrobriefing.com.

Oil exports recovered without normalizing shipping, while French and British borrowing costs rose under fiscal pressure.

You can also read this week's Supermacro Briefing on Substack.

The previous briefing’s worsening Hormuz outlook now contrasts with recovering exports. Drop Site News reports provisional flows above prewar levels through tanker transfers and bypass pipelines, yet shipping risks and falling U.S. fuel stocks kept Brent elevated. Kalshi’s market-implied median date for normal traffic moved another 57 days later.

Chatham House links France’s bond sell-off to riots and parliamentary obstacles to consolidation. The Economist reports that higher gilt yields are eroding Britain’s fiscal headroom, while planned departmental cuts needed for deficit reduction are widely doubted.

The Grapevine covers Joseph Wang’s scenario of French sovereign stress spreading into a European debt crisis, with EU-imposed austerity across indebted countries creating a substantial deflationary drag.

This podcast is a narration of the weekly Supermacro Briefing, with new episodes released every Sunday. Read and subscribe to the Supermacro Briefing: https://supermacrobriefing.com

Prolonged Gulf disruption tightened industrial supply, while infrastructure destruction increased Ukraine’s dependence on European financing.

Last briefing’s reversal in Gulf shipping recovery now comes with a longer market-priced disruption: Kalshi’s implied median date for normal Hormuz traffic moved 55 days later. The Economist reports that trapped sulphur exports are cutting phosphate-fertiliser output and raising Indonesian nickel producers’ costs; new capacity cannot resolve the current shortage.

Chatham House describes orbital decay in Ukraine’s financing capacity: destruction of grain-export, transport and electricity infrastructure increases dependence on Europe. Further IMF disbursements could stall without funding assurances, making external financing a constraint alongside physical damage.

The Grapevine covers Alastair Crooke’s unverified claim that Saudi oil exports have ceased, and his forecast that lost export income could force reserve liquidation or abandonment of the dollar peg, potentially disturbing Western bond markets.

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Renewed shipping attacks undermined Gulf supply recovery, while US income revisions made activity look stronger than previously reported.

Preston Steward reports attacks reversed Hormuz’s recovery and largely halted Saudi shipments through Bab al Mandeb, restricting an alternative export route. The Economist reports China froze new fuel-export licences after wartime stock depletion, reducing overseas fuel supply and complicating the previous briefing’s account of recovering Gulf exports.

Matthew C. Klein reports that understated business interest payments created gravitational lensing in US income data, making aggregate activity look weaker. Corporate tax data raised measured income by about 2%; higher borrowing costs had been inconsistent with previously reported payment declines.

The Grapevine covers Robert Pape’s scenario that attacks on Iranian refineries could provoke retaliation against Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia’s larger oil-processing chokepoint, potentially raising oil prices and Treasury yields.

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