Supermacro | Weekly Briefing 2026-42
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Supermacro | Weekly Briefing 2026-42
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Prolonged Gulf disruption tightened industrial supply, while infrastructure destruction increased Ukraine’s dependence on European financing.
Last briefing’s reversal in Gulf shipping recovery now comes with a longer market-priced disruption: Kalshi’s implied median date for normal Hormuz traffic moved 55 days later. The Economist reports that trapped sulphur exports are cutting phosphate-fertiliser output and raising Indonesian nickel producers’ costs; new capacity cannot resolve the current shortage.
Chatham House describes orbital decay in Ukraine’s financing capacity: destruction of grain-export, transport and electricity infrastructure increases dependence on Europe. Further IMF disbursements could stall without funding assurances, making external financing a constraint alongside physical damage.
The Grapevine covers Alastair Crooke’s unverified claim that Saudi oil exports have ceased, and his forecast that lost export income could force reserve liquidation or abandonment of the dollar peg, potentially disturbing Western bond markets.
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