Supermacro | Weekly Briefing 2026-41
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Supermacro | Weekly Briefing 2026-41
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Renewed shipping attacks undermined Gulf supply recovery, while US income revisions made activity look stronger than previously reported.
Preston Steward reports attacks reversed Hormuz’s recovery and largely halted Saudi shipments through Bab al Mandeb, restricting an alternative export route. The Economist reports China froze new fuel-export licences after wartime stock depletion, reducing overseas fuel supply and complicating the previous briefing’s account of recovering Gulf exports.
Matthew C. Klein reports that understated business interest payments created gravitational lensing in US income data, making aggregate activity look weaker. Corporate tax data raised measured income by about 2%; higher borrowing costs had been inconsistent with previously reported payment declines.
The Grapevine covers Robert Pape’s scenario that attacks on Iranian refineries could provoke retaliation against Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia’s larger oil-processing chokepoint, potentially raising oil prices and Treasury yields.
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