Should members of Congress be allowed to trade stocks?

I recently saw there was a bipartisan bill presented in the House that would ban lawmakers from trading individual stocks. I feel like we have been hearing about this for years, and according to NPR, “For more than a decade, a series of bills have been proposed to address such trades, but differences about the details and a lack of support from top congressional leaders stalled past reform efforts.” The question is, will this time be different? The bill made me curious though about how active congress was when it came to trading and let’s just say I couldn’t believe the numbers! In 2022 154 members of Congress made 14,752 trades, in 2023 118 members made 11,491 trades, in 2024 113 members made 9,261 trades, and through July of 2025 108 members made 7,810 trades. That is a crazy amount of activity and…

There are risks to Nvidia stock that you may not realize!

There is no denying what Nvidia has done has been extremely impressive, but one major problem with the company is the revenue is extremely concentrated. Their top customers made up 23% of total revenue in the recent quarter, which was up from 14% in the same quarter last year. Their second largest customer made up 16% of total revenue, which was up from 11% in the same quarter last year. Sales to four other customers contributed 14%, 11%,11%, and 10% of revenue respectively. This means that six customers accounted for 85% of Nvidia’s total sales. My concern is what if one of them drops out of the AI arms race or if a few of them pull back spending, that could really slow Nvidia’s business. I also believe that China is a risk to Nvidia. While sales have been hindered in the country due…

Understanding more about AI and why it's becoming more expensive

We are no expert on artificial intelligence, but we have learned that while AI has gotten smarter it has also gotten more expensive. It is now broken down into a unit of AI which is known as a token and while the price of tokens continues to drop, the number of tokens needed to accomplish a task is increasing dramatically. There are two basic attributes to AI, one is called training, and the other is AI inference. The increase in cost is coming from the training side that has to use large models and demands even more costly processing. AI applications are using so-called reasoning and new forms of AI double check queries on their answers, which may include scanning the entire Web. Sometimes they write their own programs to calculate things all before releasing an answer that may only be a short sentence. Delivering meaningful and better…

Financial Planning: 529 Withdrawal Pitfalls

A 529 plan is a tax-advantaged savings account designed to help families pay for education costs, with contributions growing tax-deferred and withdrawals tax-free when used for “qualified education expenses” such as college tuition, fees, books, and room and board. A qualified withdrawal avoids taxes and penalties, while a non-qualified withdrawal means the…

Companies Discussed: Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) & DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU)

You don’t always need to pick the hot technology stocks to get great returns

Investing is very emotional and it’s always nice to be part of the crowd and buy the hot stocks like Apple, Alphabet and Amazon, but they are not always the top performers. Sometimes your boring, undervalued companies can do very well. As an example, Apple over the years has performed nicely, but over the last five years the gain was 114%. Not a bad return, but if you held a boring company like Tractor Supply over the same five years, you would have a gain of 119%. Even an old insurance company like Allstate over the last five years was up 115%. Five years ago…

Another weak job report likely solidifies a Fed rate cut

August non-farm payrolls increased by just 22,000, which was well below the estimate of 75,000. This weak report also comes with another month of negative revisions as employment in June and July combined is 21,000 lower than previously reported. Healthcare and social assistance continued to lift the headline number as the sectors added 31k and 16k jobs respectively. Many other areas in the report actually saw declines with payrolls in construction falling 7,000, manufacturing declining 12,000, and professional and business services…

Should you panic over the job opening data?

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed job openings fell to 7.18 million in the month of July. This was below the estimate of 7.4 million and also marked the lowest reading since September 2024. It was only the second time since the end of 2020 that job openings came in below 7.2 million. While this may sound troubling, I believe it just illustrates how crazy the labor market got after Covid. If we look at job openings before 2020, nearly 7.2 million openings would have been a great number. In 2016, job openings averaged 5.86 million; in 2017, job openings averaged 6.12 million; in 2018, job openings averaged 7.11 million; and in 2019, job openings averaged 7.15 million. So, while the headline may sound troubling, I still believe we could have job openings fall into the low 6 million range and it wouldn't be problematic, especially given the fact that unemployment remains extremely low. Even with that, I do believe the Fed will use this as further evidence of a softening labor market and that will give them the excuse to cut rates at the meeting this month. I'm still not convinced that is…

American luxury brands are destroying Europe’s luxury brands

It appears that European luxury brands like Gucci, Hermes and LVMH have increased their prices beyond what the average consumer is willing to pay. Currently, American consumers are spending the lowest share of discretionary income on luxury goods since 2019. The European luxury brands seem to have their heads in the clouds thinking American consumers would pay any price for a luxury purse from Europe. I think they have now discovered that the American consumer has reached their limit. Two luxury American brands have benefited from the ignorance of the European…

Financial Planning: Mortgage rates reach 2025 low

Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest level of the year, reaching levels not seen since last October. Throughout 2025, 30-year mortgage rates have fluctuated between 6.5% and 7%, and as of Friday, September 5, they dipped as low as 6.29%. While this presents an opportunity for buyers and homeowners considering a refinance, caution is warranted. Rates are still likely to experience volatility even as the broader declining trend continues over the next several years. In 2024, mortgage rates actually rose at year-end despite the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts. In 2025, it is widely expected that the Fed will cut…

Companies Discussed: The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) & Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)

Yet another warning on private investments!

I remember hearing about a company by the name of Yieldstreet a few years ago and how it was a new way for smaller investors to get access to private investments and diversify away from stocks. The company promoted their platform with the tagline, “Invest like the 1%.” Unfortunately, it is now coming out that several investors may have lost everything they invested in the platform. One gentleman shared with CNBC how he invested $400,000 in two real estate projects: A luxury apartment building in downtown Nashville overseen by former WeWork CEO Adam Neumann’s family office, and a three-building renovation in the Chelsea neighborhood of New York. Each project had targeted annual returns of around 20%. After three years, Yieldstreet declared the Nashville project a total loss, which wiped out $300k of his funds and the Chelsea deal needs to raise fresh capital or it will face a similar fate. Unfortunately, he is not alone and CNBC reviewed documents that show investors put more than $370 million into 30 real estate projects that have already recognized $78 million in…

Will tariffs hurt this holiday season?

Here we are already at the end of August and before you know it, you’ll be thinking about putting out the Christmas lights and decorating your home. For the past few years, we have seen growth in holiday sales, but this year could be different as it appears from recent conference calls from CEOs at Walmart, Home Depot and Target that they are seeing the tariff increases starting to come through. During his recent conference call, the CEO of Walmart, Doug McMillon, said that the impact of tariffs has been gradually…

Should you work in retirement?

When many people are in their working years, they can’t wait to retire so they can do what they want to do. For some people that retirement works out well, but science has shown that there’s health benefits to working in retirement along with financial benefits. The health benefits would include more physical activity as you’re not laying around the house or sitting in the rocking chair on the front porch. Instead, you’re moving around walking places and staying active. Working also helps you stay connected with other people, which has been proven to extend your life. The financial benefits from working in your later years would include taking out less from your retirement accounts to maintain a good lifestyle. Also, you can hold off on Social Security which means you’d get a larger Social Security check when you do decide to collect. The type of work you do depend on you and some people in retirement have started a second…

Financial Planning: The challenge of creating retirement income

For decades, American workers relied on pensions, but today retirement security largely depends on defined contribution plans like the 401(k), where the burden has shifted to the individual saver. The real challenge comes when it is time to turn a pile of assets into a reliable, inflation-adjusted income stream that can last 20–30 years. Some retirees look to CDs and Treasury bills, which are guaranteed and currently pay about 4% interest, but they offer no appreciation to offset inflation and yields will likely decline as short-term rates drop. Corporate bonds may provide a slightly higher return, but…

Companies Discussed: Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL), Zoom Communications Inc. (ZM), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL) & Viking Holdings LTD. (VIK)

How much will EV car makers lose in credits?

The nations Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standards are still in place; however, penalties for violating those standards have been removed. So obviously there’s no incentive for any car maker to abide by them. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is focusing on standards to try to make cars more affordable again. But the big EV car makers, I will call them the big three which are Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid will have some difficulties. The credits were tradable and the EV car makers were making a lot of money selling the credits to car makers who were not meeting the required standards. Tesla will probably be OK, but I think their stock could be…

Stay away from interval funds!

I have been seeing more of these interval funds when we take over accounts for new clients and let me tell you I am not a fan of them. They appear to be normal mutual funds, but when you go to sell them, you find out you can only sell once per quarter. The other problem is when you enter the sell, the next day you realize you still own shares in the fund. The reason for that is product’s unique structure typically allows investors to…

ESPN just launched a new streaming product and I’m more confused than ever!

I like streaming because it gives more flexibility in choosing what you want to watch, but gosh there are so many different apps and so many different bundles to choose from now. I believe it has just gotten more and more confusing and companies seem to keep increasing the prices for their services. Just this year Netflix increased their prices for various tiers, but the…

Financial Planning: Form SSA-44 to Reduce Medicare Premiums

When you retire, your income often drops significantly, but Medicare bases its Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount (IRMAA) on your tax return from two years prior when you may have been earning much more. This can result in unnecessarily high Medicare premiums at the start of retirement. For example, in 2025, a married couple with income above $212,000 begins to trigger IRMAA increasing premiums by $1,000 to over $6,000 per person per year depending on how high the income is. If that couple retires and their income falls to less than $212,000, they would still be charged the…

Companies Discussed: Ventas, Inc. (VTR), KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. (KLC), C3.ai, Inc. (AI) & Brinker International, Inc. (EAT)

Unfortunately, more Americans are using their 401(k)’s for financial emergencies

I’m sure some will disagree with me based on the headlines arguing they were so happy that they had their 401(k) to tap for whatever their financial emergency was. In my opinion, people are thinking short term and not thinking about the long-term crisis when they retire in 20 or 30 years and then might be living at the poverty level because their 401(k) was not large enough to generate a decent income and social security was far less than they thought. I also want people to understand based on how fast medical technology is moving, in 20 to 30 years you may be spending more time in retirement than the 20 years or so that you were thinking. The numbers are frightening when I look at them and I have wished many times that the 401(k) would eliminate…

Inflation report shows some positives and some negatives

The July Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed an annual increase of 2.7%, which was in line with June’s reading and below the expectation of 2.8%. The headline number was helped by energy, which showed an annual decline of 1.6%, largely thanks to a decline of 9.5% for gasoline. Energy services on the other hand were not as favorable considering an increase of 5.5% for electricity and 13.8% for utility (piped) gas service. I do wonder if the power demand for these large data centers is starting to put a strain on the grid and I worry this could become…

What does the national debt surpassing $37 trillion mean for you?

On Tuesday, August 12th, the United States national debt passed $37 trillion for the first time ever. The debt is growing at about $6 billion per day, but that appears to be better than last year. In July 2024, the national debt passed $35 trillion and then in November 2024 it surpassed $36 trillion. Looking for some positives here, it did take nine months for the debt to grow another $1 trillion to the $37 trillion mark. At the end of the second quarter, debt to GDP stood at 119.4%, which is manageable but should not go much higher. Hopefully we can have a slowdown in debt expansion or maybe even a reversal and still have the GDP increase. The reason…

Financial Planning: Changes Coming to Charitable Giving

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed on July 4, 2025, delivers some new changes coming to how charitable giving may be deducted. For the first time since the pandemic-era CARES Act, those who claim the standard deduction will be able to deduct cash donations up to $1,000 for single filers and $2,000 for joint filers. This will act as an above-the-line deduction in addition to the standard deduction. For itemizers, however, the law…

Companies Discussed: Intel Corporation (INTC), UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH), Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) & Bloomin’ Brands, Inc. (BLMN)

Will the stock market crash?

With the market continuing to march higher and setting record high after record high, I do worry more and more that a crash could be coming. It doesn’t mean it will happen tomorrow, next week, or maybe even this year, but I do believe the risk to reward of investing in the S&P 500 at this point is not favorable when you take all the data into consideration. I have talked a lot about the fact that the top 10 companies now account for nearly 40% of the entire index and the forward P/E multiple of around 22x is well above the 30-year average of 17x, but there are also less discussed factors that are quite concerning. There is something called the Buffett Indicator that looks at the total US stock market value compared to US GDP. Buffet even…

Consumers are doing a better job managing their credit card debt

Data released by Truist Bank analysts show that card holders of both higher and lower scores are doing a better job paying their bills on time. This is based on a drop in the rate of late payments from last quarter. Also improving is debt servicing payments as a percent of consumers disposable personal income. The first quarter shows debt-servicing payments were roughly 11% of disposable income, which is a strong ratio to see considering that level is below what was typical before the start of 2020 and it’s far below the 15%-plus levels that were seen leading up to the Great Recession in 2008. According to Fed data, card loan growth was only 3% year over a year…

Real estate investors may be supporting the real estate market.

This may sound like a good thing, but this could be dangerous long-term since investors don’t live at the property. It would be far easier for them to default on the mortgage and let the house go into foreclosure or sell at a price well below market value just to get their investment back. So far in 2025 investors have accounted for roughly 30% of sales of both existing and newly built homes, which is the highest share on record. This is according to property analytics firm…

Financial Planning: When and How a Refinance is Helpful

After several years of elevated mortgage rates, steady declines have made more homeowners candidates for refinancing, but a smart decision requires looking beyond the headline interest rate. The first question is whether the refinance actually reduces the rate, and if so, what third-party closing costs and discount points are involved. Every mortgage carries these costs, and paying points may not make sense if rates are expected to fall further and another refinance could be on the horizon, especially since few 30-year mortgages last their full term before a sale or another refi. The structure of the new loan also matters: should costs be paid upfront or rolled into the loan balance, and how long will the loan likely be kept? The real goal is to borrow at the lowest overall cost over the life of the loan, factoring in both the rate and the cost to obtain it. A lower rate and payment may feel like a win, but without careful structuring, it may not be the most cost-effective move, something mortgage brokers often overlook…

Companies Discussed: Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), Polaris Inc. (PII) & Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)

Should you be concerned by the jobs report?

The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by 73k, which missed the estimate of 100k. Unfortunately, the news got even worse as you dug into the report. The prior two months saw major negative revisions as June was revised from 147k to just 14k and May was revised from 125k to just 19k. This amounted to a total negative revision of 258k when looking at the two months combined. Another negative was job growth in the month of July was heavily reliant on health care & social assistance as the category added 73.3k jobs in the month. This means that this category essentially carried the report as the total jobs created in the month topped the full headline number. There were some other areas that saw growth with retail trade adding 15,700 jobs, leisure and hospitality adding 5k jobs, and construction adding 2k jobs. Unfortunately, there were more…

Job openings declined in the month of June

The June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, commonly referred to as the JOLTs report, showed job openings declined to 7.4 million, down 275,000 from the prior month. While this may sound problematic, it is important to remember this is still a historically healthy level for job openings and it comes against a back drop of a historically low unemployment rate. I have said this for many months, but I believe there is even further room for job openings to decline without there being a problem for the labor market. Taking that concept one step further, I would be quite surprised to see growth in job openings from here. The main reason for that is there just aren’t enough people to fill those openings especially since it appears many companies are choosing to retain employees rather than look for new...

GDP came in stronger expected, another good sign for the economy!

While Q2 gross domestic product, also known as GDP, jumped 3% and easily topped the estimate of 2.3%, the numbers were not as strong as the headlines indicate. With the tariffs having a large impact on trade and business inventories, this report is the opposite of Q1 when actual results were much better than the headlines showed. In Q1 companies were likely trying to get ahead of tariffs so they were trying to load up on inventory and import a lot more foreign goods than normal. This led to a 37.9% increase in imports during Q1 which subtracted 4.66% from the headline GDP number. In Q2 we saw a complete reversal as imports fell 30.3% and add…

Should Banks be responsible when their customers get scammed?

It’s a sad thing to see someone in their 60s or 70s get scammed out of their life savings. Unfortunately, there are many online scams now and it appears they just keep growing. According to the FBI, in 2024 online scams totaled $16 billion, which was a 33% increase from 2023. A big question that people have been asking is should banks be the ones that are held responsible when it comes to preventing their customers from making poor investment decisions or losing money in online romance scams? Banks are already trying to prevent money laundering, terrorist financing and other types of fraud that is costly for the banks to maintain. Adding another oversight would be another expense for the banks, which could lead to costs elsewhere in the banking system to make up for those...

Financial Planning: The Secondary Benefits of Roth Accounts

While the primary advantage of Roth accounts lies in their tax-free growth and withdrawals in retirement avoiding potentially higher tax rates, there are several powerful secondary benefits worth considering. First, Roth IRAs are not subject to Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs), which means retirees can keep their money growing tax-free for life. In contrast, traditional pre-tax retirement accounts force RMDs beginning at age 75, whether the funds are needed or not. These…

Companies Discussed: Hasbro, Inc. (HAS), Chipotle Mexican Gill, Inc. (GMG) & Baker Hughes Company (BKR)

Big bank earnings give a cautious green light on the economy

Every quarter we get excited about listening to and reading about how things went for the big banks in the most recent quarter as they release their earnings. I’m primarily talking about JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. We have held a couple large banks in our portfolio for years and they have provided very useful information along with great returns as well. Overall, the big banks were happy with the low rates of consumer delinquencies and writing off debt that was…

Understanding new legislation on cryptocurrencies

Last week new legislation on cryptocurrencies was announced as the Genius Act, which stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US stable coins, made its way through Congress and to the President’s desk. The legislation is supposed to provide licensing and oversight for stable coins as issuers must obtain licenses through either a national trust bank charter with the OCC, which stands for the Office of the…

What is better for investors stock dividends or stock buybacks?

Unfortunately, there’s no hard and fast rule based on performance figures in terms of what is better for stock investors, but I would have to lean towards stock dividends. If you look at the right companies paying dividends over a 10-year period you can find that perhaps the company you invested in is now giving you a yield of maybe 7-8% based on your initial investment. Those dividends can be a really great tool for long-term investing and while companies could always stop the dividend, most companies that have paid a dividend for the long-term do not like to stop or even reduce paying that dividend. This can help stabilize returns during downturns and may help investors be less emotional. A problem with stock buybacks is they can be announced and the stock may see a little bounce, but then it’s possible that management does not fulfill the commitment to buy back all the shares they had planned to. Also, if the company or the markets were to hit a rough patch many times the first thing to go is stock buybacks. It is also possible that the…

Financial Planning: New Tax Rules for Tips and Overtime

Starting in tax year 2025 and through 2028, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act exempts up to $25,000 in tip income and up to $12,500 in qualifying overtime pay per individual from federal income tax—doubling to $50,000 and $25,000 respectively for married couples filing jointly. The tip exemption applies only to workers in occupations where tips are customary and must be properly reported through W-2s. The overtime deduction applies only to the premium portion of overtime wages—i.e., the extra pay above an employee’s standard hourly rate—and must be paid in accordance with Section 7 of the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA), meaning it only covers overtime worked in excess of 40 hours per week under federal rules. Overtime paid under state laws or union contracts does not qualify unless it also meets the FLSA criteria. The full exemption is available to taxpayers with modified adjusted gross incomes up to $150,000 (single) or $300,000 (married filing jointly) and…

Companies Discussed: Union Pacific Corporation (UNP), Toast, Inc. (TOST), American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO) & Abbot Laboratories (ABT)