Did you ever wonder why so many people didn't get out before the dot-com crash?

It's an important question to ask yourself, especially if you believe you'll know exactly when to get out before any potential correction in today's AI and semiconductor stocks…

Don’t Build That Data Center in My Backyard

The race to build AI infrastructure is running into an obstacle that many investors probably didn't see coming: local communities. Across the country, residents are…

Is Crypto Weakening One of America's Most Powerful Weapons?

One of the United States' greatest geopolitical advantages isn't its military, it's the U.S. dollar.

Roughly 90% of global foreign exchange transactions involve the U.S. dollar. That dominance gives the United States enormous leverage…

Even with oil off its recent peak, you still may not see cheaper airline tickets.

You might assume that with the decline in oil prices, jet fuel costs are also declining, and airlines will pass those savings on to travelers through lower ticket prices. Oil and jet fuel prices have indeed come down, but don't expect airlines to slash fares anytime soon…

Letting Air Out of the Investment Portfolio Balloon Before It Pops

At one point or another, we've all seen a balloon inflated until it finally bursts. The same thing can happen to an investment portfolio…

Is AI creating the next memory boom... or setting up the next bust?

SK Hynix just pulled off the largest foreign ADR listing in U.S. history, pricing its American depositary receipts at $149 and raising $26.5 billion. That isn't just a fundraising event…

Financial Planning: Simple vs Compounding Interest Loans

Many people assume that choosing a simple interest loan over a compound interest loan will dramatically reduce the amount of interest they pay, but in most real-world lending situations, the difference is minimal. The reason is…

Companies Discussed: Caterpillar Inc. (Ticker: CAT)

Competition for AI Is Coming From a Surprise Source That Could Pressure U.S. Companies' Prices and Profits

We tend to focus on the major AI companies in the United States and assume they will be the long-term winners. However, one competitor that cannot be ignored is China. Chinese companies are making rapid progress in artificial intelligence, and they could become a serious challenge to…

The Business of Kids' Sports Is Changing and it May Not Be for the Better

Private equity has made its way into nearly every corner of the economy, and now it's becoming a major force in youth sports. The Aspen Institute has estimated that youth sports are now a $40 billion industry in the U.S, which is likely why private equity is now targeting the space. That's raising serious concerns about what happens when maximizing investor returns becomes…

Bitcoin Company Strategy Is in Trouble

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, changed its name after the company essentially became a leveraged bet on Bitcoin rather than a software business. As management shifted its focus almost entirely to buying Bitcoin, it dropped the "Micro" from its name to reflect that new identity.

CEO Michael Saylor spent years promoting Bitcoin and telling investors…

Upper-middle-class Americans may not be as financially secure as they would like

Upper-middle-class Americans, generally defined as households earning between $150,000 and $250,000 per year, may be in a stronger financial position than most, but many are becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future.

You may be surprised to learn that 86% of upper-middle-class Americans do not believe their children will have a better life than they have. Just seven years ago…

Did The Recent Jobs Report Tell the Whole Story?

At first glance, this weeks jobs report looked fairly uneventful. The U.S. economy added 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. This was below the estimate of 115k, but it does follow three strong months of payroll growth.

After looking through the report, there are several numbers that raise some important questions…

The biggest risk in AI may not be the technology, it may be the economics.

This week, Bradley Tusk and Ed Zitron raised important questions that investors shouldn't ignore.

Bradley Tusk (founder and CEO of Tusk Ventures and a venture capitalist) made an interesting observation: investors are treating frontier AI models the same. But China's AI companies are proving that powerful models can be developed much more cheaply and improve much faster than many expected. If lower-cost models continue to narrow the performance gap, AI models could become increasingly commoditized, making it much harder for companies spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure to earn…

Financial Planning: Trump Account Investment Options Released Ahead of $1,000 Seed Funding

Trump Accounts are expected to receive $1,000 of government seed money as soon as the 4th of July. If you have a child born in 2025 through 2028, you can apply online now at trumpaccounts.gov. This is basically a retirement account with a caveat, contributions can be made on behalf of children even if they don’t have earned income. However extra contributions are made on an after-tax non-Roth basis so no upfront tax deduction and no tax-free growth. Instead contributions establish…

Companies Discussed: Meta Platforms, Inc. (Ticker: META)

Want the New iPhone 18 This September? Be Prepared to Pay More…. A Lot More

The iPhone 18 is expected to be released in just a few months, and if current estimates are accurate, consumers could be facing some serious sticker shock. One of the biggest reasons is the ongoing battle for semiconductor components. The rapid buildout of AI data centers has created enormous demand for…

Bad News: The Dollar Is Strong Again

Some people may read that headline and think, "What's the problem? Isn't a strong dollar a good thing?" Not necessarily. A strong dollar sounds positive, but the reality is more complicated. The U.S. dollar is now at its strongest level since May 2025. While that may feel good on the surface, a stronger dollar can create challenges for the economy…

Can Alphabet/Google Take Some of Nvidia's Market Share?

Nvidia currently controls roughly 90% of the AI computing chip market. Whenever a company dominates an industry to that extent, it creates an opportunity for competitors to enter with comparable products at lower prices. That's exactly what Alphabet's Google is attempting to do with its artificial intelligence chips…

The Dow’s Alphabet Move Is a Sign of Weakness, Not Strength

The Dow Jones is once again proving why it has become one of the most outdated and least useful stock market indexes in America. This week S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Alphabet will be added to the Dow, replacing Verizon. The financial media is treating it like the Dow is finally modernizing itself for the AI era. I see it differently. This is not leadership. It is not vision. It is not smart index construction…

Fed Stress Test Confirms the Strength of U.S. Bank Balance Sheets

U.S. banks once again came through the Federal Reserve’s 2026 stress test looking structurally strong, even under an intentionally severe economic downturn scenario. The results continue to reinforce one of the most important post-financial-crisis themes: large banks today are built to withstand a shock that would have been destabilizing in prior cycles…

What Is Quantum Computing All About?

Quantum computing is the next big step in the evolution of computing, and there’s no way around it: it’s a complex subject. But it’s also one of the most important technologies being developed today. If your son or daughter is in high school and unsure what they want to study in college, they may want to consider quantum physics, engineering, or computer science with a focus on quantum …

Financial Planning: Accessing Home Equity

Homeowners tapped an estimated $47 billion of their roughly $11 trillion of home equity during the first quarter of 2026, the highest first quarter total since 2021. There are three primary ways to borrow against that equity. A cash-out refinance replaces your current mortgage with a…

Companies Discussed: Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

You Didn’t Get SpaceX? Don’t Worry, There Are Other Mega IPOs Coming

You may feel like everyone got into SpaceX except you, and now you're wondering: Should I buy shares today? Is there something better coming next? The reality is that several other massive IPOs could be coming sooner than many investors realize. At the top of the list are OpenAI, with an estimated valuation of $852 billion, Anthropic, with an estimated valuation of $965 billion, Stripe, with an estimated valuation of $159 billion, and Databricks, with an estimated valuation…

What Can the Nifty Fifty and Tech Bubble Teach Us About Today's Market?

Every market cycle has a story. In the early 1970s it was the "Nifty Fifty." In the late 1990s it was the internet and technology boom. Today it is artificial intelligence.

The late 1990s we saw the technology boom where the internet was a revolutionary innovation that truly changed the world. Investors were correct about the technology but wrong about what they…

Private Credit Funds Are Facing High Redemption Requests Again This Quarter

For the first quarter of 2026, redemption requests in several private credit funds exceeded the industry-standard 5% quarterly redemption cap.

Second-quarter requests appear to be even higher. BlackRock's flagship private credit fund received redemption requests totaling 13.3% of fund assets, up from 9.3% in the first quarter. BlackRock has indicated it will…

Investors Turn a Blind Eye to Fundamentals

For many years, successful investing was built on analyzing company fundamentals. Today, however, there is a growing trend toward speculation and gambling. Many investors simply do not seem to care about valuation or earnings and instead believe stocks will continue to go "to the moon."

Tesla is a good example. Three years ago…

Headlines Say Crisis, Economic Data Says Otherwise

The economy continues to show surprising resilience despite concerns surrounding higher energy prices and the conflict involving Iran.

Many investors expected consumers to pull back as gasoline prices surged and headlines focused on geopolitical risks. Instead, economic data suggests the U.S. consumer remains in…

The Most Important Part of the Fed Meeting Wasn't the Rate Decision

The Federal Reserve's June meeting marked one of the biggest shifts in Fed communication and leadership in decades.

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the details beneath the surface were far more important.

For the first time since 1951, a former Fed chair will remain on the Board after stepping down as chairman. Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as a governor creates an unusual dynamic as new Chairman Kevin Warsh begins reshaping the institution. Historically…

Financial Planning: Give More, Pay Less with Appreciated Stock

One of the most tax-efficient ways to support a favorite charity or church is by donating appreciated stock instead of cash. When stock that has been held for more than one year is gifted directly to a qualified charity, the charity receives the full market value of the shares and can sell them without paying tax because it is a tax-exempt organization.

The donor generally receives the same charitable income tax deduction they would have received had they donated cash, while also avoiding the realization of any capital gain. For example, if someone is considering donating either $50,000 of cash or $50,000 of appreciated stock, the charity receives the same economic benefit in either case, $50,000 that can be used to further its mission. Likewise, the donor generally…

Companies Discussed: Accenture plc (ACN)

Can Apple Update the 16-Year-Old Siri?

This week marked Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in Cupertino, California. One of the biggest storylines is Apple's effort to reinvent Siri, which many users now view as one of the least capable AI assistants on the market…

The Housing Market Is Finally Starting to Look Normal Again

For the last several years, the housing market has felt anything but normal. Ultra-low mortgage rates, limited inventory, bidding wars, and rapidly rising home prices created an environment that left many buyers frustrated and many sellers expecting unrealistic prices…

Inflation Hits a Three-Year High, But the Details Tell a Different Story

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation rising 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023. At first glance, that sounds concerning. But a deeper look shows that the inflation story is being driven largely by a handful of categories, especially energy and travel…

How long will the AI buildout cycle really last?

The market has rewarded virtually every company connected to AI infrastructure. Chip manufacturers, networking companies, power providers, cooling suppliers, data center REITs, and cloud providers have all benefited from an unprecedented surge in spending. But history tells us that every capital spending boom eventually slows…

SpaceX IPO Finally Come To the Market, Should You Buy Now?

Live Market Discussion!

Companies Discussed: Docusign, Inc (DOCU), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), and Viasat, Inc. (VSAT)

Where is the money coming from that is fueling this technology rally?

No one knows for certain, but there are some concerning signs that suggest many investors may not have the cash to support their positions and are instead relying on borrowed money to drive the rally higher. One metric we continue to monitor closely is margin debt, a potentially dangerous tool that has now reached record levels.

Margin debt hit a record $1.304 trillion in April, an increase of 6.8% from the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, margin debt surged 53.3%, highlighting the growing use of leverage in the market. Looking at US margin debt as a percent of real GDP, it just hit…

Car Sales Are Down, and I Think That's a Good Thing

In 2019, consumers in the United States were buying roughly 17 million cars and trucks each year. This year, vehicle sales are expected to reach only about 16 million. Many consumers complain that new-car prices are simply too high, with the average new vehicle now costing around $50,000. Currently, only about 25% of new vehicles sold in the U.S. are priced between $25,000 and $35,000.

I believe this trend is actually a positive development. For too many years, automakers focused on producing as many vehicles as possible in an effort to gain market share. In the long run, this proved to be a poor business strategy. Over the years, several manufacturers required government bailouts, while others filed for bankruptcy, hurting shareholders, creditors, employees, and communities.

Of course, consumers benefited from…

The May jobs report delivered another reminder that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing

Employers added 172,000 jobs in May, well above expectations of 80,000, and the broader trend is becoming increasingly encouraging. Over the last three months, job growth has seen gains of 214k, 179k, and now 172k in May, an improvement from the pace we’ve seen really since the beginning of 2025. Rather than slowing, the labor market appears to be finding a sustainable rhythm that balances continued hiring with moderating inflation pressures.

One of the most notable areas of strength continues to be hospitality and leisure. The sector added 70k jobs in May, reflecting resilient consumer spending on travel, restaurants, entertainment, and experiences. Despite concerns that higher interest rates would weigh heavily on discretionary spending, Americans continue to spend on services, supporting employment growth across hotels, restaurants, and tourism-related businesses.

Perhaps the most important takeaway for investors and policymakers is…

Financial Planning: Return on Homeownership

Homeownership is often viewed as a superior financial decision, while renting is frequently considered "throwing money away." However, the comparison is more nuanced. A $1 million home in San Diego may rent for approximately $4,000 per month, while owning that same home could cost about $7,000 per month after a $200,000 down payment when the mortgage, property taxes, insurance, and maintenance are included. Even after accounting for estimated tax benefits of $1,000 per month and approximately $750 per month of equity from the principal reduction of the mortgage, the effective cost of ownership would still be about $5,250 per month.

In addition, the down payment represents capital that could otherwise be invested and generate returns. When the higher cost of ownership and the opportunity cost of the down payment are considered together, the home would need to appreciate by about 3.5% annually just to produce the same financial outcome as renting and investing the difference.

While homeownership offers benefits such as stability, control, and a fixed payment, future home price growth is likely to be…

Companies Discussed: Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), The Western Union Company (WU) & AutoZone, Inc. (AZO)

Logic should tell you there may not be much growth left in Nvidia

Investing has become increasingly emotional for many people, and too often investors stop thinking logically. Could the popular company Nvidia continue climbing higher? Of course it could. But there are logical reasons to believe its future growth may be limited compared to what investors expect today. First, consider the company’s market capitalization. As the stock price rises, so does the market cap, which currently sits around $5.2 trillion, depending on the day. To put that number into perspective, $5 trillion is roughly equal to the entire GDP of Japan. With that amount of money, you could buy all the real...

The Consumer Isn’t Breaking, it’s Quietly Running Out of Cushion

The recent economic data showed that inflation came in line with expectations and much of the shift can likely be attributed to higher energy prices. A bigger concern to keep an eye on is what’s happening to household finances underneath the surface. April core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.3% year-over-year, exactly in line with expectations. This was the highest annual level since November 2023. At this point, inflation still doesn’t appear to be a crisis story. If energy prices can decline, I believe much of the recent increase in inflation would dissipate and we’d head closer to the Fed’s 2% target. While I’d say inflation isn’t a major concern currently, the data suggests consumers are increasingly stretched financially...

The most important part of the SpaceX IPO may not be the valuation. It may be the mechanics behind the stock itself.

SpaceX has yet to declare the size of its IPO offering, but it will likely be a single-digit percentage of the company’s total shares outstanding. That matters because float, not just valuation, can determines how violently a stock moves in the early months after an IPO. When demand is huge and supply is constrained, prices can disconnect from fundamentals quickly. If institutions, retail investors, and passive index funds are all competing for a tiny number of available shares, scarcity alone can drive a major rally independent of fundamentals. Nasdaq created a rule in May that shortened the waiting period for megacap stocks to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index to 15 trading days, which is down from as long as a year. There’s also a proposal to shorten the waiting period for S&P 500 inclusion to six months from 12 months and there’s speculation that could be implemented before the SpaceX IPO...

Financial Planning: Match or Max Your 401(k)

Many people have heard the advice to contribute enough to their 401(k) to receive the company match, but stopping there can mean leaving one of the most powerful wealth-building tools underutilized. A 401(k) allows investments to grow tax-deferred or tax-free with traditional and Roth contributions, which can significantly improve long-term after-tax returns compared to other investment options...

Companies Discussed: The Home Depot, Inc. (HD), Intuit Inc. (INTU), Ferrari N.V. (RACE) & MGM Resorts International (MGM)

Why do low P/E stocks perform better in overpriced markets?

We are currently in a momentum-driven market, and many people are experiencing FOMO, which is the fear of missing out. Much of this is being fueled by AI and technology stocks, where investors are willing to pay almost any price because they believe these industries will continue growing indefinitely and they don’t want to miss the opportunity.

The problem is that high P/E stocks and companies with no P/E since there are no earnings at all already have massive future success priced into them. When the market eventually declines, as it always does at some point, it is often because these high-flying companies miss lofty expectations. That can trigger major selloffs and sharp declines in stock prices…

Is Your Beer Budget Feeling the Gas Pump?

If your beer fridge has been looking a little emptier lately, you're not alone and the culprit might not be your willpower. New Nielsen scanner data shows that U.S. beer, hard seltzer, and cider volumes dropped 6.3% year over year through the week ending May 2, both on a two- and four-week trailing basis. This was nearly double the 3% declines seen between November and mid-April.

What's driving it? Analysts at Bernstein are pointing straight at the gas pump. There's a clear negative correlation between gas prices in a given state and beer volume growth, and it's becoming more visible in the data, particularly in markets with the most expensive fuel.

Average U.S. gasoline prices have risen roughly 52% since the start of the Iran war, according to AAA. That's a serious hit to household budgets and it shows. California, with fuel averaging around $6.16 per gallon, saw a 16% decline in beer volumes. Arizona and Texas weren't far behind, posting declines of 10% and nearly 7%, respectively. Convenience stores seem to be seeing the brunt of the decline as they are highly sensitive to gas station traffic and impulse purchases tied…

Information is starting to trickle in about the SpaceX IPO

The SpaceX IPO is expected to be the largest initial public offering on record, with the potential to raise $80 billion or more through the stock sale. Based on the information currently available, SpaceX is expected to begin its roadshow around June 4th, which could place the public offering date near June 12th.

The company is expected to trade under the ticker symbol SPCX on the Nasdaq, as well as Nasdaq…

Financial Planning: The Breakeven on Social Security

Many people look at their Social Security statement and perform a breakeven analysis to determine how long they would have to live for waiting to claim benefits to pay off. These simple calculations often suggest that claiming at 62 is best if life expectancy is less than around 78, claiming at full retirement age around 67 makes sense if life expectancy is between 78 and 82, and waiting until 70 is best if someone expects to live beyond 82. The problem is that this type of analysis is often too simplistic and can be misleading. Most breakeven calculations only compare the total dollars received at different claiming ages and ignore several important factors. First, Social Security benefits continue to receive annual Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLAs), whether benefits are started early or delayed. Second, no one truly knows how long they will live, so any breakeven age is really just an estimate. Most importantly…

Companies Discussed: Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT), YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI), IMAX Corporation (IMAX) & Under Armour, Inc. (UAA)