Should you invest by following when insiders buy?

It sounds like it’s an easy thing. Just do what the insiders do because they obviously know the company well and if the stock were to drop in value and the insiders commit to purchasing shares, it must be a smart investment. Unfortunately, it’s not that easy and there are many other factors involved. Data also shows that longer term it may not even matter. Over my 45 years of doing this, I have even seen sometimes where they borrow money from the company to actually do the purchase of the shares. With that said when they are committing their own money, does the stock…

It's not a stock market, it's a market of stocks

I have often made this claim when things get crazy in the stock market. What I mean by this is you don't just have to buy the stock market and instead can look for good companies within the market. The reason this is so important to understand is because individual stocks can still do well even when the broader market struggles, especially when the market gets heavily concentrated like it is today. I often reference the tech boom and bust as an example investors should study and in times like this, I believe it is even more applicable. From the tech-stock peak on March 27th, 2000, through…

Inflation report comes in better than expected

The Consumer Price Index, also known as CPI, showed headline January inflation was just 2.4%. This compares to an estimate of 2.5% and last month's reading of 2.7%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in line with expectations at 2.5%, but it was also lower than December's reading of 2.6% and the smallest increase since March 2021 when it climbed by just 1.6%. Food prices put a little pressure on the headline number as they were up 2.9% compared to last year. Most of this came from food away from home where prices were up 4.0%. Food at home on the other hand only saw prices climb 2.1%. Energy prices helped the headline number as prices declined 0.1% as gasoline prices fell 7.3%. Offsetting this benefit was utility prices where electricity was…

Financial Planning: You May Be Receiving a Larger Refund

New tax rules could help many filers see larger refunds this year, with some benefits happening automatically and others requiring careful reporting. The standard deduction increased for everyone, with taxpayers aged 65 or older receiving an additional $6,000 boost. The state and local tax (SALT) cap rose from $10,000 to $40,000 for those who itemize, and the child tax credit increased by $200, from $2,000 to $2,200. These automatic changes may lower tax liability without any special reporting. However, other deductions such as those…

Companies Discussed: C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW), Cushman & Wakefield Limited (CWK), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) & PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)

Has the US dollar become too weak?

It can be difficult to filter through the headlines that make it appear that the dollar has dropped and lost 50% of its value and is getting close to collapse as some doom and gloom people would want you to believe. The truth is since January 2025; the dollar has been down about 10% against other major currencies. Keep in mind that it fluctuates every day, every hour, and every minute. This is normal, but the headlines can be very scary and it's also important to understand that over the last five years the dollar index has been up about 7%. There are pros and cons to a weak dollar. If you’re planning on traveling to Europe or some other foreign country, hotels and other items will cost you more when the dollar weakens since our dollar buys less. Also, the price of foreign cars and trucks will increase because again a dollar buys less. But the other side of the coin is that people from other parts of the world can now come to the United States and spend…

18% of US adults have taken GLP-1 drugs. What’s the concern?

The price of GLP –1 drugs have come down and roughly 18% of adults in the US are using them. But there are other considerations outside of just weight loss. These drugs came out to treat type 2 diabetes and obesity not as a lifestyle change to lose 20 or 30 pounds. It is estimated that about half of people will stop taking the drug after one year and will probably be very disappointed with their future weight management. Studies have shown that when people stop taking the drug within about a year and a half, they regain most of the weight they lost. Studies also show that the weight gain comes four times faster than those who lost weight through normal dieting. While on these drugs, people see their blood pressure, cholesterol, and blood glucose levels improved, but when they’re off the drug in a little over a year, those levels go…

Is the US housing market becoming a buyer's market?

From 2020 to about 2022 it was definitely a seller's market and people could ask whatever they wanted for their home and if you didn’t take it, there would be 10 people behind you that would. Well now things are changing back to where buyers can negotiate and sometimes even get a price below the asking price. Nationwide, about 62% of homebuyers purchased their home under the listing price. The discount of 8% was also the largest since 2012. Buyers are also obtaining concessions from sellers which could be things like cash for closing costs or buying down the mortgage. As recently as December, there were 600,000 more sellers than buyers and that’s the biggest gap going back to 2013. What is helping the housing market is mortgage rates have declined a little bit, which has made homes somewhat more affordable for some buyers along with the cool-off in prices that we have seen. The best place to buy a home currently is Florida and Texas…

Financial Planning: How Would an S&P 500 Portfolio Work in Retirement?

Many investors nearing retirement feel comfortable staying fully invested in the S&P 500 because recent performance has been strong, but that confidence is often based on a short window of returns rather than the long reality of retirement. Retirement can last 20 to 30 years, and during that time markets will go through multiple corrections and bear markets. Once withdrawals begin, even modest withdrawal rates can amplify losses and deplete a portfolio. The late 1990s provide a clear example when the S&P 500 produced annual returns in the 20% to 30% range for several years in a row and many investors came to believe strong gains were easy and would continue… then 2000 came. Someone withdrawing an inflation-adjusted 4% from an S&P 500 portfolio in 2000 saw the account fall to roughly half its value…

Companies Discussed: Lennar Corporation (LEN), Sysco Corporation (SYY), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) & Visa Inc. (V)

China’s population is declining

Last year's birth numbers for China recently came out and it was the lowest since 1949. What was the population of China in 1949? It was only around 540 million people so percentage wise it was a much higher birth rate than the 7.9 million we saw in 2025. With over 1.4 billion people and about 11 million people dying every year in China, it will take a long time to have results of a large declining population, but he problem with a lower birth rate than death rate is that it has major changes for an economy. China has a life…

Another history lesson shows why we don’t overpay for hot stocks

We know it's exciting to be in the next hot thing on Wall Street, but that was the same way people felt just a few years ago with hot software companies like Salesforce, Adobe and ServiceNow. Looking back, many of these once hot companies now have seen very disappointing five-year returns. As an example, Salesforce is only up around one percent over the last five years, and Adobe has actually…

Gold has done well, but silver has surged! Should you buy it now?

Silver is now up over 250% in the last year alone as it has become immensely popular with retail investors. Many investors are excited to point out that silver has a strong use case as an industrial metal. It’s a key component in electronics, including circuit boards, switches, and solar panels thanks to the fact that it’s an excellent conductor of electricity. Thanks to increasing demand for areas such electric vehicles and growing electricity needs, largely due to the AI push, industrial use cases now account for…

Financial Planning: Best Accounts for Kids and Grandkids

When saving for kids and grandkids, the “best” account depends on the tradeoff between tax benefits, flexibility, and control. 529 plans offer tax-free growth and withdrawals for qualified education expenses, but non-qualified withdrawals trigger federal and state taxes and penalties on earnings. Up to $35,000 can be rolled into a Roth IRA over time without federal taxes or penalties, though some states, including California, still impose taxes and penalties. Roth IRAs provide…

Companies Discussed: McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC), Zoom Communications, Inc. (ZM), Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (BAH) & Pinterest, Inc. (PINS)

Looks like it is over for the Mag Seven stocks

The name Magnificent Seven came out in 2023 by a strategist from Bank of America named Michael Harnett. The idea is the name came from a classic western movie featuring seven heroic gunfighters and their push to save a small town. But just like other hot themes like the Nifty 50 back in the 60s and BRIC where you had to be invested in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and China, it looks like the Mag Seven glory days are over. In 2025, only…

Is using part of your 401(k) for a down payment on your home a good idea?

The President is trying very hard to stimulate the housing market and allow younger people to buy their first home. One idea that has been tossed around is allowing people to use their 401(k) for a down payment. People can currently borrow from their 401(k) and I often hear uninformed people say it’s a great thing because you get to pay yourself the interest. Briefly, it is not a great idea because those "interest" payments don't account for the negative impact of the opportunity for what those funds could have grown at. You also don't get a tax deduction when…

AI will create jobs that have not even been imagined yet

There are jobs that are starting to be seen and developed as AI becomes more involved in business. One example is someone has to make sure that the systems are kept up-to-date and function properly. There’s also going to be people that have to understand the technology thoroughly and then translate the output, so managers, judges, regulators, or anyone else that is using it understands the answer. Experts will have to understand such things as self-driving vehicles and how the…

Financial Planning: Start Social Security Early to Invest?

When evaluating when to start Social Security, there are generally two schools of thought. Either collect early at age 62 to invest the funds or wait until age 70 for a larger monthly benefit. Proponents of waiting argue that the age-70 benefit is roughly 77% higher than collecting at 62 and that deferring protects against longevity risk. Regular people and some financial advisors alike believe this is the superior strategy. A recent article in the Wall Street Journal takes this stance, stating that many retirees will…

Companies Discussed: Expand Energy Corporation (EXE), Citigroup Inc. (C), The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) & GameStop Corp. (GME)

There are many headwinds for short term interest rates to drop in 2026

It is no secret that the President wants our interest rates to drop dramatically to improve the economy, which as a sidenote is really not that bad. However, even though he gets to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chairman, that doesn’t guarantee lower short-term interest rates. The Federal Reserve Chairman's term ends May 15th, which means a new chairman will be appointed by the President. But the Chairman running the Federal Reserve, no matter who they are, does not make a sole decision on interest rates. It is done as a vote from all members, and it takes a majority of the 7 members to move interest rates up or down. Other factors include Mr. Powell can stay until January 2028, when his term as governor expires. This means a…

The tariffs seem to be working with the October trade deficit at the lowest level since 2009

The October trade deficit was only $29.4 billion, which is far better than the expected deficit of $58.4 billion. Not only was it almost half the expected amount; but it was also the lowest deficit going back 16 years to 2009. The low trade deficit was due to imports falling to $331.4 billion, but exports also increased to $302 billion. Exports…

Is the 10% credit card interest cap a good idea?

At first glance, the average person is going to say yes that is great because current credit card rates around 23 to 24% are ridiculous. However, when you dig deeper into credit cards and how they work, people have to realize the risks for defaults and late payments are rather high. Banks that issue credit cards are in business to make a profit for their shareholders and if there’s no profit to be earned, then there’s no point in a business offering that service. The current default rate on credit cards is about 3%, which means banks have to write off the entire balance of whatever that person owed. The higher default rates are seen in ZIP Codes with lower incomes and also for younger borrows who got in over their head. If the 10% cap on credit…

Financial Planning: Who Benefits from the New Auto Loan Interest Deduction?

The new auto loan interest deduction created by the July 2025 “One Big Beautiful Bill” allows taxpayers to deduct up to $10,000 per year of interest paid on a qualified auto loan during tax years 2025 through 2028. This is an above-the-line deduction, meaning it is available even if the standard deduction is taken. To qualify, the loan must be an auto loan for a new vehicle that had final assembly in the United States purchased in 2025 through 2028. Leases, personal loans, and cars purchased before…

Companies Discussed: Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) & The Boeing Company (BA)

What the recent changes in Venezuela means for consumers

Without getting into the benefits of less drugs coming into our country, there are economic benefits from the large amount of oil reserves that are in the ground of Venezuela. The current daily consumption worldwide of oil is about 100 million barrels per day. Venezuela has in their ground over 300 billion barrels of oil. That alone would keep the world supplied for over eight years. Venezuela has the highest proven reserves in the world even above Saudi Arabia. Venezuela accounts for about 20% of the world supply of oil. Venezuela has four times the reserves compared to the US, yet in 2024 the United States produced over 13 million barrels per day compared to Venezuela producing under 1 million barrels per day. There is talk that the big oil…

It’s a new year, is it time to hire or change to a new investment advisor?

With the new year, investors should take a look to see how their investments have done and how their investment advisor has been working with them. The beginning of the year is a fresh start, so it’s time to see what your percentage return was on your portfolio in 2025 and evaluate if your advisor kept you updated and gave you the customer service you need like returning your phone calls in a reasonable timeframe. You don’t want to jump from the pan into the fire, so when you’re looking for a new investment advisor, be sure that the company and the advisor are full fiduciaries, which means they must do what is best for you, not what is best for…

The labor market ends the year on a soft note

This jobs report was special considering it was the first on time report in 3 months, but I'd say the data was lackluster. Nonfarm payrolls in December increased by 50,000, which was short of the estimate of 76,000. The two prior months also saw downward revisions that totaled 76,000. For the full year, payroll employment grew by 584,000, which equates to a monthly average of about 49,000 new jobs per month. This was less than 2024's gain of 2 million jobs or about 168,000 per month and actually registers as the worst payroll growth outside of a recession since 2003. While this all might sound troubling, it is important to remember that changes to government jobs had a large impact on the data. Since reaching a peak in January, government employment fell by 277,000 jobs. This obviously created a huge headwind for headline payroll growth. With that said, the labor market was still in a slower growth environment, and I continue to believe that will be the case as we move forward considering the…

Financial Planning: Mortgage-Backed Security Purchase Lowers Mortgage Rates

The U.S. government’s announcement of a $200 billion purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is already pushing 30-year mortgage rates below 6%, creating…

Companies Discussed: Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), Generac Holdings Inc. (GNRC) & Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

• Financial Outlook on 2026
• Companies Discussed: Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), Micron Technology, Inc. (MU), Lennar Corporation (LEN)

How did China’s trade surplus hit $1.1 trillion this year?

The United States purchased around $450 billion of manufactured goods from China in 2024, but trade has dropped between the two countries so how did China have a record surplus of $1.1 trillion through November 2025? The current tariff on goods imported from China is around 37% according to the Tax Policy Center and imported goods from China have dropped dramatically. China has been able to increase their exports to…

Finally some data on the labor market!

With the government shutdown, a lot of the data for the labor market was delayed. We finally got employment figures for October and November, and they were interesting to say the least! To start, the October numbers looked horrific considering payrolls declined by 105,000 in the month. While this sounds troubling, it's important to remember all of those government workers on severance were still counted as employed until the severance ended. This led to a decline in government payrolls of 162,000 in the month of October. Losses in government payrolls continued in…

Inflation report shows great progress, can it be trusted?

Headline November CPI came in at 2.7% compared to last November, which was well below the estimate of 3.1% and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, showed an increase of just 2.6%. This was the lowest reading for core CPI since March 2021 when the increase was just 1.6% and it also came in well below the estimate of 3.0%. Some areas in the report remained challenging particularly in food, where we saw uncooked beef…

Want to become a millionaire? Invest in your 401(k)!

There are more and more people with $1 million or more in a 401(k) as companies like Fidelity and Vanguard are seeing record numbers of people with accounts of more than $1 million. Fidelity said they hit the highest level ever when it comes to 401k millionaires with about 3.2% of their 401k’s or 654,000 accounts now over $1 million. Vanguard also had similar numbers for 401k millionaires. Becoming a 401k millionaire is not a get rich quick scheme, but it's a proven way to build your wealth long-term with proper investment choices. It is estimated that roughly 86% of those with $1 million plus in their 401k are 50 or older. It is also estimated that…

Financial Planning: Taking Advantage of Itemized Deductions Before December 31st

With the repeal of the $10,000 SALT deduction limit, many taxpayers may once again benefit from itemizing deductions rather than taking the standard deduction, and there are practical steps that can be taken before year-end to further enhance that benefit. The SALT deduction includes both state income taxes and property taxes, and because individuals are cash-basis taxpayers, deductions are generally taken when expenses are paid rather than when they are due, meaning that paying certain obligations before December 31st can shift future deductions into the current tax year. In California and many other states, property taxes are paid in two installments, with the first due in December and the second due in April. If the April installment is…

Companies Discussed: Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM), Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) & Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)