More regulators are concerned about private credit

The bad news just keeps coming for the private credit industry. If you’re not sure what private credit is, it is mostly middle market business loans extended by asset managers. People often don’t realize that these asset managers don’t have the same strict supervision that banks have on their loans. Investors may be starting to realize the risk because in the first quarter of 2026, private credit investors requested $20 billion from some of the private credit funds. Unfortunately, they only got a little bit over 50% of what they requested or about $11 billion. This could lead to higher redemption…

Could prediction markets be available in your IRA soon? 

Bitwise, Roundhill, and GraniteShares have filed applications with the SEC to launch exchange-traded funds tied to event contracts. If approved, these products could potentially be held in self-directed IRAs. The initial proposals appear relatively narrow in scope, focusing on outcomes like which party wins the White House in 2028 and which party controls the House and Senate after this year’s midterm elections. While these types of products can sound appealing—and successful bets could generate strong returns—they also carry a clear risk: if you’re wrong, you lose your entire investment.

One of the main concerns is how complex and speculative these instruments are, especially…

Who offers a better reward program? The big gas stations or Costco?

When I pull into a Shell gas station, I always see a pitch on the screen about getting up to $0.30 back per gallon. Other stations like Chevron run similar promos, which got me wondering: how many people actually sign up—and are these deals better than Costco’s credit card with 4% cashback on gas?

Right off the bat, gas station rewards programs feel overly complicated. Once you dig in, you’ll find caps, conditions, and purchase limits that make it tough to consistently get the maximum benefit. In the best-case scenario, you might get around $0.35 off per gallon. If gas is $6 per gallon, that works out to roughly a 5.8% discount. Not bad—but actually…

Is there a bubble in sports teams?

We’ve spent plenty of time talking about stretched valuations in stocks, the frenzy in crypto, and the rise of prediction markets—but sports teams may deserve a spot in that conversation too. Valuations across major leagues are climbing at a remarkable pace.

The NFL is leading the charge, with the average team now valued at $7.65 billion, up from roughly $1 billion in 2010. NBA franchises tell a similar story: the average team is worth $5.52 billion, an 18% jump from just last year. Go back 15 years, and the average NBA team…

Financial Planning: Understanding the Relative Cost of IRMAA

IRMAA (Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) is best understood not as a flat cost, but as an additional marginal tax rate layered on top of federal and state income taxes. When your income exceeds certain thresholds, your Medicare Part B and Part D premiums increase, and because the adjustment applies for the entire year once you cross the threshold, even by $1, it creates a “tax cliff.” For example, in 2026 the first IRMAA tier for married couples begins at $218,000 of income. At that point, Part B premiums increase from $202.90 to $284.10 and Part D increases $14.50, resulting in an additional annual cost of $2,296.80. Since this tier spans $56,000 of income (from $218,000 to $274,000), that cost translates to roughly a 4.1% marginal “tax” on income within…

Companies Discussed: Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), Intel Corporation (INTC) & The Procter & Gamble Company (PG)

Should the Fed still use the PCE as its inflation guide?

I’ve talked a lot about the shelter index being misleading when it comes to inflation, especially when looking at the CPI, but the PCE has its flaws as well. The Federal Reserve has a 2% inflation target and uses monetary policy, which includes adjusting the Fed Funds rate, to tackle its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices. A big problem I see with the PCE is that healthcare now accounts for roughly 16% to 17% of index. This comes as an aging population led healthcare spending to be the single largest contributor to consumer spending in 2025. It surpassed housing and utilities in early 2023 as the fastest growing category in the PCE and by Q3 of 2025, it contributed nearly a full percentage point to overall economic expansion and accounted for nearly half of all spending growth. While it’s…

Even with all the noise, the consumer remains strong

March retail sales showed a nice increase of 4.0% compared to last year and while gas stations were a large contributor growing 18.1% due to higher gas prices, excluding them from the report still would have resulted in a good increase of 2.9%. The only areas that saw declines in the report were motor vehicle and parts dealers, which were down 2.1%, and furniture and home furnishing stores, which were down 0.8%. Areas of strength included nonstore retailers, which were up 10.1%, electronics and appliance stores, which were up 5.2%, and clothing and clothing accessories stories, which were up 7.2%. Food services and drinking places saw growth slow, but there was still a positive increase of 2.4%. It’s not just the retail sales report that showed strength, Bank of America pointed…

Can the new Apple CEO keep the stock gains coming?

With the stock trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of around 32 times, I’ve got to say it’s going to be a very difficult task. Keep in mind over the last 50 years the average forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 has been between around 15 to 19 times, nowhere near 32. I’m also reminded of a similar situation where a prominent company with such great stock success was taken over by a new CEO and the 16-year return was only 27% including dividends. That company I’m referring to is General Electric when Jack Welch retired and the new CEO Jeffrey Immelt who was handpicked by Jack Welch took over. Things could be different this time when the new CEO of Apple takes over on September 1st but again given the current valuation it will be difficult. John Ternus is…

Your annuity may not be as safe as you think!

Many people that are sold annuities are told by the broker that they are 100% safe and to be frank they would probably say almost anything to collect their big 7% or 8% commission. But the Treasury department has concerns and is talking to state insurance regulators about the large amount of private loans that insurance companies are using in their portfolios. Back in 2024 even the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, which is also known as the NAIC and is the organizing body for regulators for every state in the US, had stated ratings that insurers had on private credit and investments were consistently overinflated. They have since…

Financial Planning: Traditional or Roth

Choosing between traditional and Roth contributions comes down to one key question: will you be able to withdraw or convert that money at a lower tax rate than your rate today? Traditional contributions work best if the answer is yes, since you get a tax break now and pay less later, while Roth contributions are better if your future tax rate will be the same or higher. Many people enter a lower tax bracket starting at retirement and lasting until required minimum distributions (RMDs) begin at age 75, but this low-tax window is limited. There’s only so…

Companies Discussed: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) & Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)

Has watching your favorite sports become a nightmare?

It used to be easy to watch a football game as you generally had maybe two different networks it would be on and it was easy to find. Well, now the promise of streaming, reducing costs and making it easier for people to watch the shows and sports they want when they want has really missed the mark. The list can go on and on of where to watch the football game or sports you want to watch. Maybe the game will be on ESPN, Paramount+, TNT, NBC’s Peacock, CBS or maybe you’ll have to go to Amazon prime or the YouTube channel. It can be very frustrating trying to find the game you want and then you find out you don’t have the right subscription, and you have to pay extra to sign up for it. Well, maybe the justice department is coming to your rescue. Last week it was reported that the justice department is investigating whether the NFL is engaging in anti-competitive tactics that harm consumers. The investigation involves whether having many outlets for sports viewing is costing consumers far more and the NFL is taking advantage of its behemoth size and demand. There is no doubt that sports are getting out of control and just recently the NBA signed a record payday for their media rights. This has opened the door for many other sports, including the NFL, which apparently…

To increase your stock price, just mention AI

I’m of course being facetious, but in many cases, it appears that way. This past week, Allbirds, which was a popular shoe company just a few years ago, announced it was pivoting from shoes to artificial intelligence and the stock at one point spiked by more than 700%. A large reason for the craziness is the market cap of the company was tiny at just about $21 million as of Tuesday’s close. When companies are this small there is more room for manipulation and wild swings as fewer capital inflows are needed to drive …

It looks like Meta will become the digital ad king

Meta has been very patient growing its ad sales by establishing substantial user habits with their products like Reels, the microblogging site Threads, and even WhatsApp. All have been very slow to introduce advertisements to their users, but that patience has paid off as worldwide ad growth for Meta increased around 22.1% in 2025 and it’s estimated it will increase another 24.1% in 2026. Because of how large Meta is, it was expected that growth would slow, but that has not happened. Their growth is far higher than Google’s growth, which is projected to be around 11.9%, about the same as last year. The ad revenue numbers are staggering with Meta expected to reach $243.46 billion, about $4 billion more than Google’s $239.54 billion. That growth has not been cheap for…

Financial Planning: Beware of Income Taxes when Gifting

When parents give assets to their children, the income tax impact depends on what’s being gifted. Cash is usually the easiest and most tax-friendly option because there’s no built-in gain. There is no direct income tax to the giver or receiver, but if parents gift things like appreciated stock or real estate, the child receives the original cost basis as well. This means they will owe capital gains tax on all the appreciation when they sell it. In contrast, if the child inherits those same assets after the parents pass away, the basis typically steps up to current market value, wiping out that taxable gain. Because of this, it’s often smarter to gift cash or assets with little appreciation and hold onto…

Companies Discussed: Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL), HP Inc. (HPQ) & Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)