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Secret House Listings: Are First-Time Buyers Locked Out?
- 2025/03/31
- 再生時間： 18 分
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あらすじ・解説
Key Discussion Points:1. Private Listing Networks (PLNs) and Market Fragmentation:The growth of PLNs, potentially aided by NAR's "delayed marketing" policy, could lead to an increasingly fragmented housing marketplace.First-time buyers are likely to "suffer the most" if the home-buying process becomes more complex due to limited publicly accessible listings.Brokerages like Compass are actively building exclusive inventory, with over 20,000 listings on their website that can't be found elsewhere, including more than 8,500 "private exclusives" as of March 2025. This is a significant jump from roughly 5,500 just a couple of months prior.In some regions, like the Bay Area, Compass has amassed significant market share. In San Francisco, Compass agents had roughly 24% of the city's listings in January 2025, with 516 in their Private Exclusives channel.Keller Williams' largest franchise, KW GO, announced $1 billion in private inventory across its territory, largely focused on Texas metros, in January.Concerns exist regarding market transparency when a significant portion of inventory is kept off the open market.Despite the growth of PLNs, most private listings eventually end up on the MLS. In Bright MLS's coverage area, "nine out of ten listings — that start as private listings or in-offices do end up getting marketed broadly on the MLS," according to Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.Private listings only account for about 4% of all listings in the Bright MLS territory, which includes Maryland, Washington, D.C., and parts of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia.Experts suggest the current housing shortfall is primarily due to restrictive local zoning, high borrowing and construction costs, and the mortgage rate lock-in effect, not solely the increase in private listings.2. Mortgage Rates and Affordability:Keeping an eye on economic factors like growth, inflation, and government borrowing can provide hints about where mortgage rates are headed.NAR projects mortgage rates to fall moderately this year, averaging 6.4% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026, as the Federal Reserve forecasts slower economic growth.However, the current high national debt will prevent mortgage rates from falling drastically to the 4%-to-5% range seen during President Trump’s first term, according to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.Despite potential rate decreases, monthly housing payments hit an all-time high in the four weeks ending March 23, 2025, with a median of $2,807 at a 6.67% mortgage rate, a 5.3% year-over-year increase.Pending sales were down 3.6% compared to a year ago in late March 2025, indicating a potentially subdued spring season, partly due to high prices and economic uncertainty. However, weekly pending home sales finally exceeded 2024 levels in late March, suggesting a potential turning point.New home sales rebounded by 1.8% in February 2025, particularly in relatively more affordable regions. The median price of new houses sold was $414,500, down 1.5% from a year ago.Inventory of unsold homes is rising, up 30% year-over-year. Similarly, new listings were up 15.5% compared to the previous year.3. The Impact of Off-MLS Sales:Selling off the MLS costs home sellers in communities of color thousands of dollars in lost value.Homes sold in ZIP codes where a majority of household heads are Black, Hispanic, Asian American, Pacific Islander, or Native American typically sell for 3.2% less than MLS-listed homes, resulting in a $9,851 loss per off-market listing.In contrast, majority white neighborhoods experience a smaller loss of 1.2% or $3,694 per home for off-market listings.Zillow estimates homebuyers and agents lost out on more than $1 billion in 2023 and 2024 when they didn't use MLSs.Hispanic and Black home sellers are more frequently advised to list their property off the MLS, with nearly three-quarters reporting such recommendations compared to only 24% of white sellers.Zillow is a vocal supporter of the Clear Cooperation Policy (CCP), which mandates that a property be listed on the MLS within 24 hours of publicly marketing it. NAR is expected to vote soon on a potential repeal of CCP.Zillow's study defined privately listed sales as those marketed privately and seemingly submitted to the MLS only once a purchase contract was in place.4. Regional Market Variations:Redfin identified the hottest neighborhoods of 2025, with New York and the Midwest dominating the top spots. These rankings are based on factors like year-over-year changes in median sale price, median days on market, change in home sales, and change in median views per listing. Examples include Prospect Heights and Clinton Hill, NY; Campton Hills and St. Charles, IL; and Polk Gulch and Russian Hill, CA.Florida home sales are still down year-over-year, indicating a more challenging market compared to some other regions like Texas.Median sale price changes vary significantly across metro areas. For the four weeks ending March 23, 2025, ...