the WiRE - Weekly Roundup

著者： the WiRE - the Week in Real Estate
無料で聴く

  • サマリー

  • Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.
    © 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com.
    続きを読む 一部表示

あらすじ・解説

Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.
© 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com.
エピソード
  • Tariff Shockwave: Is Your Dream Home $11,000 More Expensive?

    Tariff Shockwave: Is Your Dream Home $11,000 More Expensive?
    2025/04/21
    Today, we're diving deep into a critical issue shaking the housing market in April 2025: the impact of recently announced tariffs. Could these trade policies add a staggering $11,000 to the cost of your dream home? Let's explore the tariff shockwave and its implications.The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released its monthly housing market index for April, which, despite a slight uptick in builder confidence to 40, reveals significant underlying concerns. While the easing of mortgage rates in late March may have temporarily pushed some buyers off the fence, this optimism could be short-lived.A key finding from the NAHB survey highlights that a majority of builders (60%) reported that their suppliers have already increased or announced increases in prices due to tariffs. These cost hikes are averaging 6.3% and, according to the NAHB, could add approximately $10,900 to the cost of building a new home. Other sources corroborate that builders were already experiencing rising material costs even before the tariffs fully took effect. This uncertainty surrounding tariffs and broader economic conditions is also making clients hesitant about larger remodeling projects.It's important to note that these costs are rising even though many of the tariffs have been delayed or won't take effect until later in the year. Paul Emrath, vice president for survey and housing policy research for NAHB, explained that the mere announcement of tariffs can have an adverse effect on the behavior of consumers and even businesses. This uncertainty, stemming from the Trump administration's tariff announcements, appears to be seeping into the building industry.Builders themselves are expressing growing uncertainty over market conditions due to tariff-induced price volatility, as well as labor and land shortages. While builders were most confident about current sales conditions in April, their expectations for home sales over the next six months have declined. Furthermore, while builder confidence saw a slight increase in April, it is still down significantly from a year ago, when the index stood at 51.The impact of these rising costs will likely be passed on to consumers. Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, stated that if these tariffs persist, builders will have no choice but to pass on the costs to consumers, who are already struggling with housing affordability. This could further dampen homebuying demand, as economic experts warn that home sales may begin to slow due to concerns about the economy and fluctuating mortgage rates.Adding to the complexity, housing starts for single-family homes were down 14.2% in March compared to February, and building permits for single-family homes also dropped by 2%. This slowdown in new home construction occurs as builders face persistent supply-side and affordability challenges.The potential increase in new home prices due to tariffs also coincides with a broader market where home price growth is already losing steam. Fannie Mae economists have scaled back their price growth estimates for 2025, and some analysts believe prices could even fall. Mike Simonsen of Altos Research noted that home prices are staying "just barely positive" and questioned whether economic turmoil could force them to shift negative, drawing parallels to price drops seen in 2022 following interest rate spikes.Redfin reported that for the four weeks ending April 13, 2025, the median sale price increased by a modest 2.6% year-over-year, down from higher growth rates seen earlier in the year. At the same time, new listings are up 11.2% year-over-year, and active listings are up 12.3%, indicating more choices for buyers but potentially less leverage for sellers.Interestingly, a recent survey by Realtor.com found that 81% of potential sellers expect to get their asking price or more, but Redfin's Elijah de la Campa suggests a growing disconnect between seller expectations and the direction the market is actually moving. With tariff fears and economic uncertainty making homebuyers nervous, sellers who don't lower their price expectations may see their homes linger unsold.In early April, Redfin noted that new listings were up 10.3% year-over-year, suggesting some sellers might be looking to cash in on their equity before a potential economic downturn further dampens demand and possibly drives down home values.Regionally, builder confidence in April, based on the three-month rolling average, remains highest in the Northeast (47) and lowest in the West (35). This regional disparity suggests that the impact of tariffs and overall market conditions may not be uniform across the country.In conclusion, the announced tariffs are sending a shockwave through the housing market. Builders are already facing rising costs, which could translate to significantly higher prices for new homes. This added cost pressure, coupled with economic uncertainty, could further slow down buyer demand and ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    14 分
  • Stock Market Crash: The Secret Trigger for Your Next Home Bargain?

    Stock Market Crash: The Secret Trigger for Your Next Home Bargain?
    2025/04/14
    Introduction:Welcome to the show! Today, we're diving into a seemingly counterintuitive idea: could a stock market crash actually present an opportunity for homebuyers?We'll explore the complex interplay between the stock market and the housing market, examining how economic volatility can create unexpected bargains for those looking to purchase a home.The Link Between Stocks and Homebuying:A recent Redfin survey revealed that a significant portion of prospective homebuyers expect to sell stocks to fund their down payment. Specifically, one in five (20%) prospective homebuyers anticipate using stock investments.Homeowners are also using stocks for housing costs, with roughly one in eight (13%) having sold stocks for a down payment, and one in ten (10%) having sold to afford mortgage payments.Renters are less reliant on stocks for housing, with only 6% having sold stock to afford rent.However, dropping stock values could lead some would-be homebuyers to back off as their funds shrink and their economic confidence is shaken.Redfin agent Heather Mahmood-Corley notes that in Phoenix, buyers in their 50s and older are particularly concerned, as much of their housing funds are in stock portfolios.How Stock Market Volatility Impacts Homebuyer Demand:Redfin's economic research lead, Chen Zhao, explains that falling stock values directly reduce homebuying demand by depleting prospective buyers' funds.Beyond direct financial impact, stock market volatility shakes consumer confidence and creates a general feeling of being poorer.This occurs at a time when consumers are already anticipating rising costs due to new tariff policies. President Trump’s new tariff policy has caused "wild up-and-down swings" in the stock market.Concerns about tariffs and a potential recession are making younger buyers nervous about purchasing a home now, fearing a decline in value and uncertainty in mortgage rates.The "Secret Trigger": Potential Silver Linings for Homebuyers:Despite the negative impacts, Zhao highlights potential "silver linings" for the housing market amid stock market volatility.Real Estate as a Safe Haven: A volatile stock market can encourage people to invest in real estate instead of stocks, viewing homes as a more stable investment.Downward Pressure on Mortgage Rates: Declining stock values can sometimes push mortgage rates down. Mortgage rates fell to a six-month low on April 4, offering a brief window of relief.Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), also noted the "roller coaster ride" of mortgage rates, influenced by the bond market's reaction to real-time economic decisions.Lower rates earlier in the week led to a spike in mortgage applications, indicating that some buyers are ready to act when rates drop. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 9% during the week ending April 4.Expert Perspectives on Market Turmoil:Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, emphasized the significant "uncertainty and so much disruption" in the market, leading to rapid changes.Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos Research, suggests that stock market turmoil might not immediately translate into significant changes in homebuyer demand. He believes that rapidly lower mortgage rates could even bring some buyers off the fence.Simonsen points out that American homeowners are in a strong financial position with ultra-cheap, locked-in 30-year fixed mortgages and low loan-to-value ratios. This might make them more resilient to economic downturns.The Role of Tariffs and Other Economic Factors:The commencement of President Trump's tariffs has been linked to a tick down in U.S. mortgage rates. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain.The potential for increased costs in new home construction due to tariffs on Canadian lumber is another factor to consider.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed slightly easing inflation in March, but this data predates some of the recent tariff announcements.Current Housing Market Trends:While homebuying demand improved slightly at the start of April, overall, the housing market is under pressure.New listings are rising, with sellers potentially hoping to capitalize on their equity before a potential economic downturn.Pending sales saw their smallest decline since the start of 2025 in early April, but the long-term trend remains uncertain amid economic jitters.The median sale price showed the smallest increase since October 2023, and price reductions are high, indicating limited upward pressure on prices. In fact, some states are seeing lower home prices than the previous year.Mortgage rates remain volatile, making it crucial for ready buyers to stay in close contact with their agents to lock in favorable rates.Who Might Benefit from This Scenario:Buyers with cash or stable income who haven't been heavily invested in the stock market might find less competition and potentially lower prices.First-time homebuyers who have been priced out of the market could see an ...
    続きを読む 一部表示
    13 分
  • The Great Housing Heist: How Tariffs & Uncertainty Are Gutting Homeowner Dreams

    The Great Housing Heist: How Tariffs & Uncertainty Are Gutting Homeowner Dreams
    2025/04/07

    Key Discussion Points:

    Generational Shift in Home Buying:In 2025, Baby Boomers (ages 60-78) constitute the largest cohort of U.S. home buyers at 42%, surpassing Millennials whose share dropped to 29% (from 38% the previous year). Generation X remained steady at 24%.

    Younger boomers (60-69) represented 26% of recent buyers, and older boomers (70-78) 16%.

    Reasons for Boomer purchases include the desire to be closer to friends and family, retirement, and the desire for a smaller home.

    Younger boomers are more likely to buy in small towns, while older boomers prefer suburbs.

    Baby Boomers also make up the largest share of home sellers at 53%. They are selling to move closer to loved ones or because their homes are too large.

    Housing Market Trends in 2025:Supply is increasing, with total unsold inventory up significantly compared to the previous year. New listings are also higher.

    Pending home sales are slightly above last year's pace.

    Home price pressures are weakening, and the trend suggests prices could turn negative soon. The national average price increase is minimal, and some markets are already seeing price declines.

    Rents on single-family houses have also turned negative year-over-year, aligning with the downward pressure on home prices.

    The median price of pending home sales was around $395,000.

    Monthly housing payments hit a record high in 2025, with the median monthly mortgage payment reaching $2,802 at a 6.65% mortgage rate for the four weeks ending March 30, 2025.

    Mortgage rate stability around 6.6% may be helping to ease buyer concerns and support sales volume. However, significant decreases are not imminent.

    Pending home sales saw a 2.0% uptick in February 2025, but regional performance varied. All four regions reported year-over-year declines in contract signings.

    Impact of Economic Factors:President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs have the potential to impact the U.S. housing and mortgage markets. Following their commencement, mortgage rates saw a slight decrease, potentially increasing homebuyers' purchasing power while also amplifying economic uncertainty.

    A slowing economy and potential consumer fears about recession, tariffs, and job security could offset any positive impact of lower mortgage rates on buyer demand.

    March job growth came in stronger than expected, but this was before the full impact of the new tariffs and federal government layoffs.

    Other Relevant Factors:The belief in "forever homes" is dwindling.

    Brokerages are facing uncertainty following the Clear Cooperation decision.

    New data suggests private listings offer "no benefits to sellers".

    The US needs an estimated 40 million more low-cost homes, indicating a significant affordability issue.

    The share of condos selling below list price hit a 5-year high in February 2025.

    Real estate agents and brokers remain the top resource for home buyers and sellers across all generations.

    Next Steps for Further Analysis:

    Investigate the regional differences in home buying trends, particularly focusing on markets with significant shifts in generational activity.

    Analyze the potential long-term effects of the tariffs on housing affordability and buyer sentiment.

    Examine the relationship between mortgage rate stability and sales volume in the current economic climate.

    Consider the implications of the growing housing supply and weakening price pressures for different segments of the market.

    Research the reasons behind the decline in "forever home" beliefs and its potential impact on housing demand.

    Evaluate the impact of the Clear Cooperation Policy changes on market dynamics.

    This episode provides a crucial snapshot of the evolving real estate landscape in 2025, highlighting significant shifts and potential challenges for both buyers and sellers.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    23 分

the WiRE - Weekly Roundupに寄せられたリスナーの声

カスタマーレビュー：以下のタブを選択することで、他のサイトのレビューをご覧になれます。

Audible.co.jp

Amazon.co.jp
レビューはまだありません。