エピソード

  • What Do Falling Lumber Prices Tell Us?

    What Do Falling Lumber Prices Tell Us?
    2025/09/16
    On today’s show we are looking to connect the dots between new home construction, demand for lumber, and home sales. We are answering the question, Is this a possible boom for new rental properties? So here we are going into the fourth quarter with several headwinds and a couple of tailwinds. If you are looking to start a construction project, this might be an excellent time. Construction labor are looking for work in many markets and will price their labor more aggressively. Labor has become the dominant cost in many projects. Material prices are falling in some segments. Lumber is a great example. We have falling interest rates. I say this irrespective of what the Federal Reserve may announce on Wednesday this week. The US 10 year Treasury is hovering around 4% and the Canadian 5 year commercial mortgage bond rate fell below 3%. It’s now around 2.92%. All of this happened with no central bank announcements. So if your capital costs are falling and your material prices are falling, and you are going into a seasonal slower time period with lower demand for labor, these are significant tailwinds. The only headwinds that I can see are the tariffs. The other headwinds are falling prices for single family homes. But if you’re building rental apartments, and your market has the right supply and demand dynamics for rentals, this might be one of the best times to build, starting in the 4th quarter and into the first quarter of next year. You might be thinking that you’re building a commercial building and you don’t use much lumber. What’s happening to steel prices ?OK, Let’s look at that. Steel prices seem to have mirrored the same dynamic as lumber, but to a smaller degree. Prices peaked at the end of July at $3333 per ton. On Sept 11, they were at $3006 per ton. Today they’ve rebounded a bit to $3070 per ton. We saw the same thing in copper. Prices were $5.80 per pound for copper and they fell in a matter of days to $4.36 per pound. Today the prices are hovering closer to what has been an average for the past year at $4.60 per pound. So this is not just a softwood lumber phenomenon. ---------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
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    6 分
  • When You Can't Trust The Data

    When You Can't Trust The Data
    2025/09/15

    We have seen some spectacular revisions in economic data over the past couple of years. We've seen it in labor data, gross domestic product, inflation. These revisions are continuing to come. This time it's in the oil markets. The narratives are failing to explain what's happening behind the scenes. On top of that, the numbers are just plain wrong.

    For example US growth in oil demand was underestimated by a factor of 4 by the IEA. Mexico's oil consumption has been under-reported by 100,000 barrels a day for the last five years. The US oil consumption was off by 350 million barrels in the last 3 years. These are not small inaccuracies. Yet futures prices are being determined by these narratives.

    ---------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    6 分
  • Luxury Short Term Rentals with Fahad Farhat

    Luxury Short Term Rentals with Fahad Farhat
    2025/09/14

    Fahad Farhat is based in Toronto where he specializes in luxury short term rentals. This conversation breaks the mold on what you think of short term rentals. He manages more than $30M of properties in Florida, Vegas, Muskoka, Toronto and several other key locations.

    To connect with Fahad, visit ffrealtor on Instagram or visit his website at artofgreatness.co.

    ------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    19 分
  • Matching Partners with Aleksey Chernobelskiy

    Matching Partners with Aleksey Chernobelskiy
    2025/09/14

    Aleksey Chernobelskiy is based in Phoenix Arizona where he is the principal at GPLPMatch.com. He brings a vast experience managing multi-billion dollar portfolios. Today, his new venture is adding value by providing a matching service between accredited investors and investment offerings where only the offerings that match the investor's selection criteria are presented. This helps reduce the noise that is so pervasive in the investing community.

    To connect with Aleksey, visit GPLPMatch.com or email him directly at Aleksey@gplpmatch.com.

    -------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    14 分
  • How To Perform A Site Assessment

    How To Perform A Site Assessment
    2025/09/12

    On today’s show we are talking about the design of a multi-unit building on a property that was originally designed for a single family home. There are many urban infill opportunities in major cities across North America. Earlier this week I was looking at a property for a consulting client that has the potential to be redeveloped from a single family home to a six unit apartment building. On today’s show I’m going to take you through the thinking of how we analyze this property to determine the basic feasibility. There are many aspects to this. There is the physical, can I get this to fit on the property in a reasonably cost effective manner. There is the financial where we analyze all of the financial levers in the project. We’re not going to talk about that today, we are just going to talk about the physical aspects of getting a project that complies with the zoning and will be sensible to build.

    ------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    6 分
  • Top 5 Construction Mistakes

    Top 5 Construction Mistakes
    2025/09/11

    On today’s show we are looking at the top five mistakes that rookie investors make when it comes to projects that have a construction component.

    1. Failing to sync the construction contract and the lending terms

    2. Failing to budget for pre-purchased materials that will not be included in construction draws until much later

    3. Failing to bond over offsite improvements

    4. Making sure you have the right type of construction contract for your project.

    5. Making early design decisions that cascade a trail of increased costs in the project.

    --------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    6 分
  • How Is The US Economy Really Doing?

    How Is The US Economy Really Doing?
    2025/09/10
    When you listen to J Powell speak from the podium at the FOMC meeting he typically talks about managing the Fed’s dual mandate to maintain price stability and to maximize employment. The past several years have been focused on taming inflation. Core PCE inflation measured 0.3% for the past two months June and July. We will get the August report on Sept 26. On an annualized basis Core PCE inflation remains pretty sticky at 2.9%. This is higher than the Fed’s 2% target. It’s not zero, and it’s not runaway inflation either. I don’t even get into the debate about whether the measurement is appropriate or not. We will take it for now that Core PCE is what the Fed needs to set interest rates. The other side of the coin is the labor market. If you’ve been listening to this show for a while, you will know that I’ve been flagging the inconsistencies between the two surveys that make up the employment report. There is the payroll survey and the household survey. The numbers reported in the two surveys are not consistent and have not been consistent for a long time. The employment report is the one that is most likely being overstated. Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a significant downward revision to its employment data for the U.S. down 911,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate. That's a big deal. So with this latest employment data, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut their benchmark lending rate at next week’s meeting. The real question is how much, and whether this will affect the medium term bond yield and the 10 year bond yield in particular.The bond yield is a reflection of risk for those bonds that have a risk premium attached to them. I don’t believe the US Treasury market is carrying a risk premium. So in the absence of a risk premium, the yield is a reflection of the economy. A weaker economic cycle will pull bond yields down as growth is going to take a hit. A stronger economy will bring inflationary pressure on prices which will tend to drive yields up. We have a 30 day t-bill trading at 4.17%, the 10 year treasury trading at 4.08%, and the 2 year trading at 3.55% and the 5 years trading at 3.61%. This is the market clearly signalling that over the medium term, interest rates are heading lower. That’s good news for real estate investors. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
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    6 分
  • Building Real Estate In Remote Locations

    Building Real Estate In Remote Locations
    2025/09/09

    My wife and I just came back from a 7 day cruise from Seward Alaska to Vancouver in Canada. One of the stops was a port of call created specifically for the cruising industry called Icy Strait Point. This port is built into the side of an island off the coast of Alaska. Most people on the ship would have enjoyed the fresh cooked salmon, and marvelled at the numerous souvenir shops sprinkled throughout this manufactured village. I on the other hand looked at it through the lens of a real estate investment.

    Cruise lines are often looking for ports that charge low landing fees. These fees amount to huge sums over time. That’s why each major cruise line has built their own beach club at a private island in the Bahamas. They get a day at the beach with no port fees or landing fees.

    The investment structure for Icy Strait Point is a unique partnership where the Huna Totem Corporation, an Alaska Native village corporation, maintains full ownership and operational control, while major cruise lines act as key investors. This model allows the native corporation to retain sovereignty while securing the capital needed for port development.

    The investment came primarily from NCL and Royal Caribbean which gives these cruise lines preferential access to the port.

    Icy Strait Point is fully owned and operated by the Huna Totem Corporation, which represents more than 1,550 Alaska Native shareholders. All profits from the port are reinvested back into the community of Hoonah.

    When you travel, don't just eat the fish and buy a t-shirt, look behind the curtain at the investment structure.

    ------------

    **Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
    Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
    iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
    Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
    LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
    YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
    Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
    **Y Street Capital:**
    Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
    Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
    Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

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    6 分