We are accustomed to the idea of growth. We love it when the wind is at our back and progress is effortless. We have experienced a lifetime of growth. If a growing market is an underlying assumption, then most people are unaware that they are operating with the assumption of growth. Growth becomes a law of nature, a little like gravity.

What would change in your strategy if you needed to win in a shrinking market?

Canada experienced the first major drop in population this past quarter.

Outside of a slight drop during the height of the pandemic, this quarter is the first time that Canada’s population has declined in at least the past eight decades.

The trend is not limited to Canada. The US administration has set much more stringent immigration policies over the past year. The policies continue to evolve with citizens from a total of 39 countries now barred from entering the US, even as visitors. This is largely a reaction to the near open-doors policy of the previous administration.

The US and Canada are not a strangers to shrinking population. Internal migration has caused population to shrink. The gains in the sunbelt have been at the expense of loss in the rust belt.

Detroit has lost more than 50% of its population since the 1970’s.

Cleveland has lost 60% of its population since the 1950’s.

Immigration is the pathway to maintaining population and to maintaining economic growth. I’m hopeful that these reductions are a short term reaction to periods of excessive growth and that both countries the US and Canada return to a more normalized immigration policy that recognizes the significant necessity and long term benefit that comes from a functioning immigration policy.

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Real Estate Espresso Podcast: Spotify: The Real Estate Espresso Podcast
Website: www.victorjm.com
LinkedIn: Victor Menasce
YouTube: The Real Estate Espresso Podcast
Facebook: www.facebook.com/realestateespresso
Email: podcast@victorjm.com

Y Street Capital: Website: www.ystreetcapital.com
Facebook: www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital
Instagram: @ystreetcapital

On today’s show we are going to do a walk-through of a property offering memorandum in Arizona. Let me be clear, I’m not here to disparage any property. I’m simply going to share our perspective of how we would look at the property.

The property in question is a conversion of a 1960’s vintage motel in Tempe Arizona. The original property had 140 motel rooms with a two story structure. The centre courtyard has amenities including a swimming pool. All of the parking is surface parking around the perimeter of the property.

When we look at a property, we are looking at the submarket and the specifics of the deal.

This particular property is located in an area that I would consider to be a lower income area.

Apartments in these neighborhoods have been the subject of ICE raids resulting in deportations. If residents fear being discovered, they will often leave and the question becomes who will rent these apartments?

This particular property is being advertised as newly renovated. But the truth is, the physical layout of the units means the bedrooms do not have windows. They are tucked at the back of the old motel room design. If they were built today, they would not pass the building code as a legal bedroom.

The financial model that accompanied the glossy package showed some stellar returns. But unfortunately some of the financial metrics did not seem credible when viewed through our lens.

There is no way in our opinion that a 70 year old motel converted to apartments would value at over $500 per SF in the open market.

The sad part is that these types of listings are out there. I never want to see an investor lose money. I don’t want to see a property fall into disrepair and become blight within the community. But things do get old. Once they’re functionally obsolete, the right solution is to demolish and rebuild. Extending the life beyond the useful life is rarely the right answer.

I’ve had to demolish properties in Philadelphia. It’s sad when that happens.

--------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)

On today’s show we are talking about the street level process for getting a property leased up. Marketing is all about generating interest. Sales is about generating revenue.

We have an industrial outdoor storage project that was built in central Florida to meet the needs of contractors who have equipment and materials that need storage. These are businesses that have valuable equipment like excavators that you can’t just park in your driveway. The HOA won’t allow it. These contractors have trailers full of battery powered tools that need a secure place to charge overnight.

Many landscaping companies purchase composite decking materials for each job because they don’t have the space to store materials. They have to charge more, and they lose some bids because their prices are not competitive.

If they purchased materials by the truckload, they could get a 15-20% discount on those materials. In the landscaping business that kind of discount can make the difference between getting the job or not. It can make the difference between a profitable season and a break-even season. Not every customer will want the colors you chose. But if you have a few standard colors that are widely popular, you can win more bids for the modest cost of renting additional outdoor storage space.

This is a relationship-driven outreach, not a passive listing exercise. The contractors who will sign leases are often busy doing project work, not browsing general property sites. To lease to these clients you need to target where they are, speak their language, and make the transaction clear and simple.

---------------

**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:**
Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)
iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)
Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)
LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)
YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)
Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)
**Y Street Capital:**
Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)
Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)
Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)