Rates went up, builders went down, here's who wins.
Mortgage rates hit 6.66% this week, the highest all summer. Same week, builders cut the median new home price to $398,300, the lowest in a year. If you're thinking Mickey, those two things don't even go together, bro, you're right. They don't. And that gap is where the money is this month.
I'm Mickey Lawrence, a licensed Realtor in Georgia and Texas. This is the show where we take the real estate news that sounds complicated, expensive, and vaguely threatening, and translate it into plain English. Not what this means for the economy, what it means for your payment, your equity, your closing date, your peace of mind.
In this episode:
The Fed held for a fifth straight meeting, and three officials voted to raise. The vote was 9 to 3, and all three dissenters wanted a quarter point hike. For two years the question was when do they cut. This week three of them said maybe we go up. The dot plot has most officials seeing 3.6% to 4.1% at the end of 2026. Nobody up there sees a cliff coming. Stop waiting for a rescue, refinancing exists, repurchasing does not.
6.66% is not the number you should care about. Five straight weeks of increases, 23 basis points in a month. But a year ago the 30 year averaged 6.72%, we're still below last summer. On a $400,000 loan that entire five week run cost you about $60 a month. Negotiating $15,000 off the purchase price saves you about $100 a month. The rate moved a little. The negotiating room moved a lot.
Builders are the most motivated sellers in America right now. 9.3 months of standing inventory versus 4.6 months in the existing home market, and 61% of builders handing out incentives like Halloween candy. A builder is not an emotional seller, a builder has a construction loan, a lender, a quarterly earnings call, and a spec home with grass somebody has to mow. They'd rather give you an $18,000 rate buydown than cut the price. Bring your own agent on the first visit, not the second.
Insurance is the line item that quietly wrecks deals. Georgia is projected up about 10% on top of last year's 9%. Check your dwelling coverage against rebuild cost. A 2% wind and hail deductible on a $500,000 rebuild is $10,000 out of pocket.
Property tax fights in both my states. Texas SB4 raised the school homestead exemption to $140,000, and SB23 took the 65 and older exemption to $60,000. Georgia's HB 581 capped taxable value growth, but Fulton, Gwinnett, Cobb, DeKalb, and Chatham opted out.
And the credit wall came down. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac eliminated the 620 minimum credit score on conventional loans. If a lender told you no in the last two years over your score, get requoted. That's a policy change, not a sales line.
Atlanta: 34,149 homes for sale in June. Inventory up 9.8% year over year, sales down 3%, median single family price flat at $425,000, townhome median down 2.7%. That's a buyer's market forming in slow motion.
Houston: 8,820 single family homes sold in June, up 3.5% year over year. Active listings up 2.1% to 38,839, with 5.2 months of inventory. More supply and more sales, the healthy version of high inventory.
Nobody's going to hand you a perfect moment. There isn't one. There's just information, and what you do with it. The people who build real wealth in real estate aren't the ones who timed it, they're the ones who understood it and moved.
Mickey Lawrence, Realtor, Georgia and Texas
Call or text 770 373 4944, office 770 615 6122
Everything else, guides, down payment assistance, and all my socials at linktr.ee/settleinatl
Thinking about buying or selling in Atlanta or Houston? Reach out, I answer.
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