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Prediction Markets Signal Shifting Sentiment in US Politics and Crypto
- 2025/04/09
- 再生時間： 4 分
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あらすじ・解説
Prediction markets have had a lively couple of days, with surprising shifts across several platforms hinting at deeper undercurrents in politics, technology, and finance. The biggest story right now comes from Polymarket, where the “Trump to Win 2024 Presidential Election” market surged to 62 cents, up from 58 just two days ago. That four-point jump follows the news of President Joe Biden’s softer-than-expected debate showing and internal Democratic murmurs about potential replacement candidates. Interestingly, the Biden contract has slipped to 31 cents, with Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris both seeing modest upticks in long-shot markets — though neither has topped 4 cents yet. It’s a signal that traders think drama could still unfold in the Democratic nomination process.
On PredictIt, the highest-volume market remains “Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” with more than $2 million traded overall. The price movements mirror those on Polymarket but are less sharp — Trump currently trades at 59 cents and Biden at 35. One notable change on PredictIt is in the “Republican VP nominee” market. The odds for JD Vance have climbed from 12 cents to 17 in just 48 hours, partly following a flattering Fox News interview and rising chatter in right-leaning circles. Tim Scott and Elise Stefanik remain top contenders, but Vance’s rapid ascent suggests traders are reacting to subtle campaign cues, perhaps ahead of an announcement.
Metaculus, the crowdsourced forecasting platform that tends to attract domain experts, tells a more nuanced story. Its aggregated forecast for Trump winning in November now sits at 59 percent — the highest it's been this cycle, up from 54 just a week ago. What’s more interesting is that Metaculus forecasters believe there’s now nearly a 22 percent chance that Biden will drop out before the Democratic convention, up from 14 percent late last week. This dramatic sentiment shift may reflect more than just debate performances — possibly age-related concerns and behind-the-scenes donor discussions.
The most intriguing development in the past 48 hours may actually be outside of politics. On Polymarket, the market for “Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved in Hong Kong Before August 1st” spiked from 21 cents to 35 cents on Tuesday after leaks suggesting increased regulatory progress. While still priced below 50, the movement is notable and reflects how leak-based markets can react disproportionately. With U.S. crypto regulation still uncertain, Hong Kong's faster pace might signal a geographic power shift in digital finance — something the markets seem to be waking up to.
One emerging trend to watch is a growing divergence between expert platforms like Metaculus and mass-participation platforms like Polymarket. While Metaculus emphasizes methodical probability updates, Polymarket often reacts quickly — and sometimes irrationally — to minute signals like tweets, rumors, or short clips. This divergence is creating arbitrage opportunities for attentive users, and it’s also raising new questions about how well real-time sentiment tracks with longer-term forecasting accuracy. With volatility set to rise as elections approach, this separation in signal could be both a risk and an opportunity for traders.
On PredictIt, the highest-volume market remains “Who will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?” with more than $2 million traded overall. The price movements mirror those on Polymarket but are less sharp — Trump currently trades at 59 cents and Biden at 35. One notable change on PredictIt is in the “Republican VP nominee” market. The odds for JD Vance have climbed from 12 cents to 17 in just 48 hours, partly following a flattering Fox News interview and rising chatter in right-leaning circles. Tim Scott and Elise Stefanik remain top contenders, but Vance’s rapid ascent suggests traders are reacting to subtle campaign cues, perhaps ahead of an announcement.
Metaculus, the crowdsourced forecasting platform that tends to attract domain experts, tells a more nuanced story. Its aggregated forecast for Trump winning in November now sits at 59 percent — the highest it's been this cycle, up from 54 just a week ago. What’s more interesting is that Metaculus forecasters believe there’s now nearly a 22 percent chance that Biden will drop out before the Democratic convention, up from 14 percent late last week. This dramatic sentiment shift may reflect more than just debate performances — possibly age-related concerns and behind-the-scenes donor discussions.
The most intriguing development in the past 48 hours may actually be outside of politics. On Polymarket, the market for “Spot Bitcoin ETF Approved in Hong Kong Before August 1st” spiked from 21 cents to 35 cents on Tuesday after leaks suggesting increased regulatory progress. While still priced below 50, the movement is notable and reflects how leak-based markets can react disproportionately. With U.S. crypto regulation still uncertain, Hong Kong's faster pace might signal a geographic power shift in digital finance — something the markets seem to be waking up to.
One emerging trend to watch is a growing divergence between expert platforms like Metaculus and mass-participation platforms like Polymarket. While Metaculus emphasizes methodical probability updates, Polymarket often reacts quickly — and sometimes irrationally — to minute signals like tweets, rumors, or short clips. This divergence is creating arbitrage opportunities for attentive users, and it’s also raising new questions about how well real-time sentiment tracks with longer-term forecasting accuracy. With volatility set to rise as elections approach, this separation in signal could be both a risk and an opportunity for traders.