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Prediction Market News

著者： Quiet. Please
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  • Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

    For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/
    Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
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Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

For more https://www.quietperiodplease.com/
Copyright 2024 Quiet. Please
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  • Prediction Markets Shift Amid Unexpected Developments in U.S. Politics and Policy

    Prediction Markets Shift Amid Unexpected Developments in U.S. Politics and Policy
    2025/04/21
    Prediction markets have been buzzing this week, and some unexpected moves over the past 48 hours have shifted sentiment in ways even seasoned watchers didn’t see coming. Among the leading platforms—Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus—activity remains high as traders and forecasters react to breaking political developments, tech news, and economic indicators.

    On Polymarket, the highest-volume contract by far remains the "Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" market, with over $25 million in total trading volume to date. Donald Trump leads slightly at 52 cents, while Joe Biden has slipped to 45 cents, down from 48 cents just three days ago. That modest dip came after a tepid jobs report in the U.S. and concerns about how the Biden campaign is positioning itself on economic messaging. But the real surprise came from a smaller, fast-moving market: "Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Nominee?" surged from 4 cents to 15 cents overnight Monday into Tuesday, driven by renewed speculation about Biden’s health challenges following an uneven weekend appearance. While the likelihood remains low, the rapid price movement suggests traders are beginning to hedge more seriously against a Biden dropout scenario—a possibility still considered unlikely but now slightly more priced in.

    Over on PredictIt, the market asking whether the U.S. Senate will remain Democratic after the 2024 election has nudged upward in favor of Republicans, with GOP control now trading at 56 cents, a 3-point gain in the past 48 hours. This movement coincided with a surprisingly strong Republican fundraising report in Arizona’s Senate race and talk of independent candidate Kyrsten Sinema potentially siphoning off votes from the Democratic nominee. It’s a subtle shift, but in markets like this, small moves can be early signals.

    Meanwhile, Metaculus has seen a flurry of long-range forecasting activity. Its aggregated probability for "Will AI cause human extinction before 2100?" ticked up slightly to 5%, from 4.3% last week—a meaningful shift for such a long-term question. Still, the most fascinating change on Metaculus this week was in the "Will a US Federal CBDC be launched before 2028?" question, which jumped from 21% to 34% after a Federal Reserve official hinted at the possibility of pilot programs later this year. That’s a big move for a policy market and suggests growing confidence among forecasters that central bank digital currency experimentation is inching toward implementation.

    One notable pattern emerging across platforms is increasing liquidity and volatility in foreign political markets. On Polymarket, the UK general election market saw the Labour Party’s chance of winning rise from 78% on Sunday to 85% by Tuesday morning, following a surprise resignation from a senior Conservative minister. Traders may be waking up to the profit potential in non-U.S. events, especially with several high-stakes elections globally in the coming months.

    In all, the last couple of days on prediction markets have been marked by subtle but telling shifts that reveal traders are pricing in more uncertainty ahead—whether in politics, policy, or tech development. The moves aren’t seismic, but they point to a landscape that’s becoming more dynamic by the hour.
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    4 分
  • Prediction Markets See Surge in Activity Around U.S. Elections and Global Conflicts

    Prediction Markets See Surge in Activity Around U.S. Elections and Global Conflicts
    2025/04/18
    Over the past 48 hours, prediction markets have seen a flurry of activity, particularly around U.S. political developments and global conflict scenarios. Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus continue to lead the way in volume, but it's Polymarket that's currently dominating attention with highly liquid markets around the 2024 U.S. presidential election and geopolitical flashpoints.

    The most active market on Polymarket remains "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which surged past $10 million in volume. Despite ongoing legal challenges, the market is pricing a Trump nomination at 79 cents, up from 74 just three days ago. This 5-point jump seems to reflect increasing skepticism that legal entanglements will derail his campaign. What’s notable, though, is the simultaneous 3-point dip in the "Will DeSantis drop out by July?" market, which fell to 43 cents. This suggests that traders might be betting on a longer fight from DeSantis than anticipated, perhaps banking on debates or external shocks to alter the dynamic.

    PredictIt has also seen its most traded contracts center on the presidential race. The "Who will win the 2024 Democratic nomination?" market saw a sudden move Tuesday evening when California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds rose from 5 to 9 cents. Joe Biden remains dominant at 78, but the mini-surge for Newsom came shortly after his high-profile trip to China, and paired with Biden’s approval rating slipping in two major polls this week. While still a long shot, the movement illustrates that traders are beginning to hedge against Biden fatigue or a potential health-based dropout.

    The most dramatic shift has come on Metaculus, however, in a market assessing whether Israel will launch a ground invasion into southern Lebanon before the end of 2024. Over the past two days, that probability jumped from 38% to 54%. According to linked commentaries, the change was triggered by satellite imagery and increased military activity along the Blue Line border — plus statements from Hezbollah leadership perceived as escalating. Metaculus users tend to be more data-driven and long-term focused, and this inflection point is striking, indicating the growing potential for a broader regional conflict, which had been considered unlikely just a week ago.

    One emerging trend across platforms is an uptick in interest in artificial intelligence regulation. Multiple newly launched markets are tracking whether major countries will introduce AI-specific laws by the end of 2024. Most of these are still thinly traded, but early volume is promising. For example, on Polymarket, the market "Will the U.S. pass a federal AI regulation bill by 2024?" has already cleared $100,000 in volume just days after launch, with odds currently at 23 cents. Given rising congressional hearings and corporate chatter, this space looks set to expand significantly and could become the next dominant theme in predictive speculation alongside geopolitics and elections.
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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Surge on Political Speculation and Economic Uncertainty

    Prediction Markets Surge on Political Speculation and Economic Uncertainty
    2025/04/16
    The world of prediction markets has been unusually dynamic over the past two days, with volume surging on politically charged events and a few markets taking traders by surprise. On Polymarket, which continues to lead in daily activity, the most heavily traded market remains the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. As of this morning, "Trump to win in 2024" is trading at 54 cents, up from 49 cents two days ago, reflecting a noticeable bump following reports about Biden's slipping approval ratings in swing states. Meanwhile, "Biden to win" has dropped to 42 cents, down from 46, with traders seemingly reacting to mixed economic data and growing media scrutiny. This 4-point swing is one of the largest intraweek shifts in the election markets so far this year.

    On PredictIt, similar patterns are playing out, although with lower daily volumes compared to Polymarket. A new market asking whether Gavin Newsom will enter the 2024 presidential race gained traction, going from 6 cents to 18 cents after speculation fueled by his recent media appearances and elevated visibility at national events. That said, most political analysts still view this as long shot territory, but the triple in probability reflects an undercurrent of Democratic uncertainty.

    Metaculus, though more academic in tone, has also seen notable movement. Its community forecast for "Will Donald Trump be president on January 21, 2025?" has shifted modestly from 51% to 56% in the last 48 hours—marking a sentiment convergence with the more speculative Polymarket contracts. Meanwhile, Metaculus's long-term science and tech markets continue to simmer steadily. Notably, the market on whether a major AI lab will announce artificial general intelligence by 2027 ticked up from 24% to 27%—a small but significant change driven by OpenAI’s public roadmap updates and researchers’ interpretations of recent model capabilities.

    One of the more surprising market shifts this week came from Polymarket’s "Will there be a government shutdown in October 2024?" which rose from 12 cents to 26 cents almost overnight. This spike appears tied to leaked internal memos suggesting another appropriations standoff in the works, although no mainstream outlets have confirmed the reports. The speed and scale of the movement suggest that insiders—or at least well-informed speculators—are driving early positioning. If this holds, it may become a critical bellwether for fall 2024 legislative dysfunction.

    Looking across the platforms, a broader trend worth watching is the growing impact of alternative media and decentralized news on market sentiment. More traders seem to be reacting first to podcasts, Substacks, and Twitter threads before traditional headlines hit. The Newsom speculation, for example, caught fire only after a few niche commentators floated the scenario. As information decentralizes, price discovery in prediction markets is getting faster—and perhaps more chaotic. Whether that improves accuracy or just amplifies noise is a question the next few months may answer.
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    3 分

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