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Prediction Market News

Prediction Market News

著者： Quiet. Please
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 Stay ahead of the markets with 'Prediction Bets,' a daily podcast that dives into the latest trends in prediction markets like Polymarket. Get expert insights on the best prediction bets, trades, and strategies to help you make informed decisions. Whether you're new to the world of prediction markets or an experienced trader, 'Prediction Bets' brings you the latest market movements, forecasts, and tips to maximize your success.

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  • Prediction markets see volatility ahead of 2024 U.S. election

    Prediction markets see volatility ahead of 2024 U.S. election
    2025/07/08
    The past couple of days have brought fresh volatility across prediction markets, with traders recalibrating odds in real time as new polls, headlines, and events unfold. Polymarket continues to dominate in terms of volume, with its 2024 U.S. presidential election markets pulling in roughly 2.6 million dollars in trading just in the past 48 hours. As of this morning, the market for "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 election?" climbed to 61 cents, up four points since Wednesday, while the contract for Joe Biden fell to 34 cents. That drop marks Biden’s lowest point since late March and has some users pulling liquidity from longer-term contracts like “Will Biden be the Democratic nominee?” which has slipped from 83 to 79 cents.

    One especially dramatic move came in the “Will Joe Biden be replaced as nominee?” market. Over the past 24 hours on Polymarket, that market surged from 17 to 23 cents, following a string of op-eds from former Democratic strategists questioning the campaign’s viability, combined with a damaging CNN poll showing Biden trailing Trump by six points nationally. The price action there suggests a growing sense of unease among traders, though there’s still no credible signal from party leadership that a replacement is being considered.

    Meanwhile, Metaculus, with its focus on quantified forecasting and expert consensus, saw a major shift in its probabilistic forecast for whether the House of Representatives will flip Republican in November. That forecast jumped from 42 percent to 49 percent after a key retirement announcement in a competitive Pennsylvania district, combined with updated district-level polling that now favors Republican turnout. Forecast contributors noted increased national momentum for Republican fundraising as part of the sudden spike.

    On PredictIt, where U.S. politics is the bread and butter, there was a notable change in the market for “Which party will win the Senate in 2024?” With recent gains for the GOP in Montana and Arizona polling, the Republican contract rose from 58 to 62 cents, while the Democrat contract fell by four points. Traders seem to be responding to messaging pivots from Republican Senate candidates in battlegrounds, emphasizing cost of living and the ongoing southern border debate.

    One emerging trend worth watching is the increasing divergence between expert-oriented platforms like Metaculus and retail-heavy platforms like Polymarket. For instance, while Polymarket gives Trump a 61 percent chance to win the presidency, Metaculus forecasters still show Biden slightly favored, hovering around 53 percent. This disconnect may reflect ideological bias among retail traders or slower reaction times among consensus-based forecasts, but either way it signals a growing complexity in interpreting public versus expert sentiment.

    Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never miss the latest forecast shifts. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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    3 分
  • Prediction Markets Abuzz with Election Speculation, Tech Bets

    Prediction Markets Abuzz with Election Speculation, Tech Bets
    2025/07/06
    The prediction markets have been buzzing this week, with a flurry of activity around global elections, tech breakthroughs, and unexpected geopolitical shifts. Let’s dive into the latest trends driving the sharpest market moves across platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus.

    On Polymarket, the highest volume market remains the 2024 US presidential election, where the question of whether Donald Trump will win has surged in activity over the past 48 hours. The "Trump to win 2024" contract is now trading around 52 cents, up from 48 cents just two days ago. This four-point jump comes amid news of a slight polling bump for Trump in key swing states, and after a fundraising rally that brought in over 50 million dollars in a single weekend. On the other side, the “Joe Biden to win” market is tilting downward, falling from 47 cents to 45. The narrowing spread between the two candidates reflects the tight-lipped caution many forecasters are applying right now, given economic uncertainty and upcoming debate schedules.

    PredictIt is seeing unusual movement in the "Republican VP nominee" market. Tim Scott saw a sudden surge from eight to 21 cents, driven by rumors that he was being vetted more seriously than previously expected. Nikki Haley, once the frontrunner, dipped slightly from 29 to 25 cents. The spike for Scott seems particularly surprising given how quiet his public appearances have been lately. Pundits suggest the campaign may be testing his name recognition among Black voters and evangelicals, two key blocs for Trump. This jump from low single digits to the twenties in less than 48 hours is raising eyebrows and recalibrating expectations within the market.

    Over on Metaculus, the more academically driven crowd is fixated on AI timelines. The probability that an AI system will be capable of passing a Turing-style verbal reasoning exam by the end of 2025 has moved up from 41 percent to 48 percent. This change is largely in response to the publication of a new benchmark test by researchers at Google DeepMind, which suggests models like Gemini could be within range of this milestone within the next year. This is a relatively significant shift for a Metaculus forecast, where moves tend to be more gradual due to community deliberation and input weighting.

    A broader trend emerging among all three platforms is the resurgence of interest in crypto-native prediction tools. As volume declines on PredictIt slightly due to regulatory pressure and Metaculus remains focused on long-term forecasting, traders seem increasingly drawn to the immediacy and liquidity of Polymarket’s USDC-based markets. We’re also seeing more niche questions getting traction. For example, markets asking whether Apple will release a foldable iPhone in 2025 or if Elon Musk’s xAI will outperform OpenAI by year’s end are gaining unexpected attention. These bets may seem speculative, but they’re attracting serious volume, hinting at a growing appetite for tech-oriented wagers from younger traders who are less interested in traditional political outcomes.

    Thanks for tuning in and make sure to subscribe so you never miss an update. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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    4 分
  • Prediction Markets Buzzing with Activity on Politics, AI and Geopolitics

    Prediction Markets Buzzing with Activity on Politics, AI and Geopolitics
    2025/07/03
    Prediction markets have been heating up over the past 48 hours, with a flurry of activity across major platforms like Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus. The biggest headlines are still dominated by politics and geopolitics, but there were some surprising price movements that hint at growing uncertainty in places we hadn’t been watching as closely.

    Polymarket continues to lead with the most dollar volume traded. The "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024" market has surpassed 15 million dollars in volume and currently trades at 88 percent yes, up from 82 percent just three days ago. That bump seems to be driven by both his improving position in GOP polling and the recent pause in one of his criminal trials. But the more eye-catching movement came in the "Will Biden be the Democratic nominee" market, which fell sharply from 82 percent to 71 percent in just 24 hours before recovering slightly to 73 percent. The sudden dip followed a flurry of op-eds and a new Reuters poll showing a five-point drop in Biden's net approval rating across swing states. That temporary market panic seemed to reflect a broader anxiety among traders about whether health and electability questions will drive a late substitution on the Democratic ticket.

    Over on PredictIt, the race for control of the Senate in 2024 is back in the spotlight. The market asking whether Republicans will control the Senate next year rose from 62 cents to 67 in the past 48 hours, sparked primarily by a fundraising report that showed vulnerable Democratic incumbents like Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown struggling to keep pace in their respective states. PredictIt traders also jumped on a less prominent market forecasting whether Robert F Kennedy Junior will qualify for the upcoming presidential debates. That saw a sharp rise from 14 percent to 26 percent as news broke that both CNN and ABC were considering amended polling criteria, possibly giving Kennedy a clearer path to meeting the threshold.

    Metaculus, which blends prediction and expert forecasting, has also seen some subtle shifts, especially in long-term conflict assessment markets. Its probability of a direct military conflict between China and the United States before 2030 ticked up from 18 to 22 percent this week, following recent naval encounters near Taiwan and signals from Beijing about what it views as red lines. On a shorter time scale, however, the site’s community consensus suggests that the near-term risk of instability on the Korean Peninsula has declined slightly, sliding from 12 down to 9 percent as of this morning.

    One trend worth keeping an eye on is the growing number of markets related to artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market and regulation. Across both Polymarket and Metaculus, there’s been a clear uptick in volume and interest in questions like whether ChatGPT or its successors will pass standardized exams, or whether major legislation will be passed governing AI use before the end of 2025. This suggests that beyond politics and sports, prediction traders are now seriously engaging with the future of technology policy as a mainstream concern.

    Thanks for tuning in and be sure to subscribe so you never miss an update from the world of prediction markets. This has been a Quiet Please production, for more check out quiet please dot ai.
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    4 分

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