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Prediction Markets See Surge in Activity Around U.S. Elections and Global Conflicts
- 2025/04/18
- 再生時間： 3 分
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あらすじ・解説
Over the past 48 hours, prediction markets have seen a flurry of activity, particularly around U.S. political developments and global conflict scenarios. Polymarket, PredictIt, and Metaculus continue to lead the way in volume, but it's Polymarket that's currently dominating attention with highly liquid markets around the 2024 U.S. presidential election and geopolitical flashpoints.
The most active market on Polymarket remains "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which surged past $10 million in volume. Despite ongoing legal challenges, the market is pricing a Trump nomination at 79 cents, up from 74 just three days ago. This 5-point jump seems to reflect increasing skepticism that legal entanglements will derail his campaign. What’s notable, though, is the simultaneous 3-point dip in the "Will DeSantis drop out by July?" market, which fell to 43 cents. This suggests that traders might be betting on a longer fight from DeSantis than anticipated, perhaps banking on debates or external shocks to alter the dynamic.
PredictIt has also seen its most traded contracts center on the presidential race. The "Who will win the 2024 Democratic nomination?" market saw a sudden move Tuesday evening when California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds rose from 5 to 9 cents. Joe Biden remains dominant at 78, but the mini-surge for Newsom came shortly after his high-profile trip to China, and paired with Biden’s approval rating slipping in two major polls this week. While still a long shot, the movement illustrates that traders are beginning to hedge against Biden fatigue or a potential health-based dropout.
The most dramatic shift has come on Metaculus, however, in a market assessing whether Israel will launch a ground invasion into southern Lebanon before the end of 2024. Over the past two days, that probability jumped from 38% to 54%. According to linked commentaries, the change was triggered by satellite imagery and increased military activity along the Blue Line border — plus statements from Hezbollah leadership perceived as escalating. Metaculus users tend to be more data-driven and long-term focused, and this inflection point is striking, indicating the growing potential for a broader regional conflict, which had been considered unlikely just a week ago.
One emerging trend across platforms is an uptick in interest in artificial intelligence regulation. Multiple newly launched markets are tracking whether major countries will introduce AI-specific laws by the end of 2024. Most of these are still thinly traded, but early volume is promising. For example, on Polymarket, the market "Will the U.S. pass a federal AI regulation bill by 2024?" has already cleared $100,000 in volume just days after launch, with odds currently at 23 cents. Given rising congressional hearings and corporate chatter, this space looks set to expand significantly and could become the next dominant theme in predictive speculation alongside geopolitics and elections.
The most active market on Polymarket remains "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024?" which surged past $10 million in volume. Despite ongoing legal challenges, the market is pricing a Trump nomination at 79 cents, up from 74 just three days ago. This 5-point jump seems to reflect increasing skepticism that legal entanglements will derail his campaign. What’s notable, though, is the simultaneous 3-point dip in the "Will DeSantis drop out by July?" market, which fell to 43 cents. This suggests that traders might be betting on a longer fight from DeSantis than anticipated, perhaps banking on debates or external shocks to alter the dynamic.
PredictIt has also seen its most traded contracts center on the presidential race. The "Who will win the 2024 Democratic nomination?" market saw a sudden move Tuesday evening when California Governor Gavin Newsom’s odds rose from 5 to 9 cents. Joe Biden remains dominant at 78, but the mini-surge for Newsom came shortly after his high-profile trip to China, and paired with Biden’s approval rating slipping in two major polls this week. While still a long shot, the movement illustrates that traders are beginning to hedge against Biden fatigue or a potential health-based dropout.
The most dramatic shift has come on Metaculus, however, in a market assessing whether Israel will launch a ground invasion into southern Lebanon before the end of 2024. Over the past two days, that probability jumped from 38% to 54%. According to linked commentaries, the change was triggered by satellite imagery and increased military activity along the Blue Line border — plus statements from Hezbollah leadership perceived as escalating. Metaculus users tend to be more data-driven and long-term focused, and this inflection point is striking, indicating the growing potential for a broader regional conflict, which had been considered unlikely just a week ago.
One emerging trend across platforms is an uptick in interest in artificial intelligence regulation. Multiple newly launched markets are tracking whether major countries will introduce AI-specific laws by the end of 2024. Most of these are still thinly traded, but early volume is promising. For example, on Polymarket, the market "Will the U.S. pass a federal AI regulation bill by 2024?" has already cleared $100,000 in volume just days after launch, with odds currently at 23 cents. Given rising congressional hearings and corporate chatter, this space looks set to expand significantly and could become the next dominant theme in predictive speculation alongside geopolitics and elections.