Prediction Markets Buzzing with Activity on Politics, AI and Geopolitics
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Prediction Markets Buzzing with Activity on Politics, AI and Geopolitics
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Polymarket continues to lead with the most dollar volume traded. The "Will Trump be the Republican nominee in 2024" market has surpassed 15 million dollars in volume and currently trades at 88 percent yes, up from 82 percent just three days ago. That bump seems to be driven by both his improving position in GOP polling and the recent pause in one of his criminal trials. But the more eye-catching movement came in the "Will Biden be the Democratic nominee" market, which fell sharply from 82 percent to 71 percent in just 24 hours before recovering slightly to 73 percent. The sudden dip followed a flurry of op-eds and a new Reuters poll showing a five-point drop in Biden's net approval rating across swing states. That temporary market panic seemed to reflect a broader anxiety among traders about whether health and electability questions will drive a late substitution on the Democratic ticket.
Over on PredictIt, the race for control of the Senate in 2024 is back in the spotlight. The market asking whether Republicans will control the Senate next year rose from 62 cents to 67 in the past 48 hours, sparked primarily by a fundraising report that showed vulnerable Democratic incumbents like Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown struggling to keep pace in their respective states. PredictIt traders also jumped on a less prominent market forecasting whether Robert F Kennedy Junior will qualify for the upcoming presidential debates. That saw a sharp rise from 14 percent to 26 percent as news broke that both CNN and ABC were considering amended polling criteria, possibly giving Kennedy a clearer path to meeting the threshold.
Metaculus, which blends prediction and expert forecasting, has also seen some subtle shifts, especially in long-term conflict assessment markets. Its probability of a direct military conflict between China and the United States before 2030 ticked up from 18 to 22 percent this week, following recent naval encounters near Taiwan and signals from Beijing about what it views as red lines. On a shorter time scale, however, the site’s community consensus suggests that the near-term risk of instability on the Korean Peninsula has declined slightly, sliding from 12 down to 9 percent as of this morning.
One trend worth keeping an eye on is the growing number of markets related to artificial intelligence and its impact on the job market and regulation. Across both Polymarket and Metaculus, there’s been a clear uptick in volume and interest in questions like whether ChatGPT or its successors will pass standardized exams, or whether major legislation will be passed governing AI use before the end of 2025. This suggests that beyond politics and sports, prediction traders are now seriously engaging with the future of technology policy as a mainstream concern.
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