Abdul El-Sayed is going to be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Michigan, but the victory was much closer than it looked when I initially planned to call it. With 23 percent of the vote counted, Haley Stevens was barely leading in Oakland County, which she represents in Congress, and the outstanding votes appeared to favor El-Sayed. I thought he was heading toward an eight-to-ten-point win. Instead, the margin narrowed to about 1.4 percent. Barring some miraculous vote drop out of Detroit, El-Sayed wins, but this wasn’t an overwhelming progressive victory.

The polling miss is the polling miss. Congressional polling is never the most reliable. What’s strategically telling is that much of the expectation for a blowout came from El-Sayed’s own campaign, which released internal polling showing him ahead by 15 points. That obviously didn’t happen. Can you question the wisdom of releasing those numbers? You can. You can question that wisdom.

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I still got my prediction wrong. I picked Stevens by five, so allow me to eat the mistakes. My prediction was closer to the final result than El-Sayed’s internal polls, but a loss is still a loss. I believed Mallory McMorrow’s female voting bloc would break more heavily for Stevens. I said from the beginning that McMorrow would decide this race; I just didn’t realize it would be her ghost bridging the gap between the other two candidates.

El-Sayed started this three-way dance as the owner of the progressive lane, and he owned the issues that mattered in Michigan. It didn’t matter how folksy the Stevens campaign tried to make her. El-Sayed won, the establishment lost, and progressives deserve to celebrate. Raise a PBR and let your tears stain your unused college degree. Progressive listeners can dance on my shame because they’ve earned it.

But the lesson for progressives is the opposite of what it was on The Real World: They need to stop getting real and start getting polite. Their movement isn’t overwhelming. I don’t care how fired up Michigan is about Israel, Medicare for All, or any other progressive policy. El-Sayed needs Haley Stevens voters if he’s going to defeat Mike Rogers. He needs to reach out and say, “Let’s stick it to ‘em… together,” because progressives aren’t going to get there by doing it exactly their way forever.

This is still a big day for progressives, but the final margin changes what it means. It wasn’t proof that they can squash the establishment on their own. It was proof that they can win a close primary and then immediately need the people they just beat. Celebrate the victory, take the lesson from the margin, and rerack for the general election.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro and Updated Michigan Thoughts

00:03:10 - Progressives and the Establishment

00:12:37 - Evan Scrimshaw on 2028 Democratic Primaries

01:18:44 - Wrap-up

Donald Trump says he’s close to deciding whether to launch a massive attack on Iran as the U.S. military expands its campaign aimed at stopping attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon used a B-1 bomber against Revolutionary Guard targets for the first time since the fighting resumed, while Iran continues attacking U.S. bases and shipping. Trump says Tehran wants negotiations, but the White House hasn’t accepted any of the Iranian proposals. The House voted 214 to 208 to demand an end to hostilities, while the Senate rejected a similar measure 47 to 49.

There are a lot of signs that something is about to happen. Air traffic is moving, Israel is opening bomb shelters, hospitals are getting specific instructions, and skirmishes on the Iran-Iraq border might suggest American special forces will get involved. Trump has said Israel would quickly rejoin the fight if asked, but claims the United States could act alone. The B-1 launched from Britain can carry two dozen 2,000-pound bombs or dozens of cruise missiles. Its targets included Iranian military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage, and logistics infrastructure.

Iran still has some ability to threaten shipping despite officials saying its military capability around Hormuz has been sharply degraded. On the other side of Saudi Arabia, the Houthis have attacked a Saudi shipping line and threatened a second critical energy route through the Red Sea at the Bab el-Mandeb.

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I think this is on and poppin’. Either there’s some kind of détente that lets Trump kick the can past the midterms, or you’ve got to extract a pound of flesh from Iran. You’ve got to call their bluff and say: Look, whatever you think you can do, go ahead and do it.

I don’t think there are any coincidences in the Middle East. It’s a very transactional region, and I don’t think Saudi Arabia getting a nuclear deal is disconnected from what’s happening. My 360-degree view of Iran has always been predicated on the idea that both the region and the United States are looking to reshape the Middle East around Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel as the new powers, while the United States pivots to China. But if you’re going to do that, you’ve got to really degrade Iran.

I don’t know how you do it or what you can do. It certainly seems that the Trump administration believes bridges and power plants are what the IRGC really, really, really doesn’t want to lose. The more audacious military plans include storming an area where we believe Iran has nuclear material and taking it by force, seizing the coastline from which Iran is firing drones and missiles to ensure the Strait of Hormuz stays open, or seizing Kharg Island, where Iran exports its oil. I don’t know that Iran can function without the kind of money it gets from oil.

It’s very hard to follow this because you don’t really know what’s happening. I didn’t know why oil stayed as low as it did before, why it fell before the memorandum of understanding, or why it’s shooting up now. If it goes way up, how fast can it fall? I don’t know. I have no idea. But it looks like something is about to pop. In fact, it might already be happening by the time this podcast hits your feed.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:52 - Campaign Undertaker

00:13:42 - Iran Heats up

00:20:20 - Stock Trading Bill

00:21:57 - Midterm Polling

00:25:33 - Interview with Josh Jennings

01:22:51 - Wrap-up