In the immediate aftermath of the fatal ICE shooting in Minneapolis, Senate Democrats are attempting to translate outrage into leverage. After a closed-door caucus, they emerged unified around a set of concrete demands tied to Homeland Security funding: tighter warrant requirements, bans on agents wearing masks, mandatory body cameras, visible identification, and a uniform code of conduct with independent investigations. These are not abstract reforms. They are specific guardrails aimed at slowing enforcement down and restoring a baseline of accountability.

The politics here are brutal. Republicans are warning that reopening the funding package would stall it in the House, and they may be right. Any deal that ultimately passes will require Donald Trump’s explicit blessing, otherwise it dies before it clears the lower chamber. At this point, a partial government shutdown looks likely no matter what. The real strategic question for Democrats is prioritization. If they are forced to choose, which reform matters most. Masks. Warrants. Body cameras. They can’t win them all, and it’s up to them to determine which one is worth a shutdown fight.

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Georgia, the 2020 Election, and Reopening Old Scars

As if immigration were not volatile enough, the FBI executed a court-authorized search warrant at election offices in Fulton County, Georgia, seeking records related to the 2020 presidential election. The bureau confirmed the investigation is ongoing but offered no details. County officials acknowledged the focus on 2020 materials and declined further comment.

Anything touching the 2020 election is radioactive. Anything touching Georgia is worse. This reopens the deepest fault line inside the state Republican Party, the one that pits Donald Trump against Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. Trump tried and failed to destroy both men politically, and they emerged stronger for it. Whenever 2020 resurfaces, that fragile détente collapses. Even without knowing where this investigation leads, the act of reopening the file guarantees renewed tension inside Georgia politics and fresh oxygen for conspiracy narratives.

The Fed Holds Steady Under Growing Pressure

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5 to 3.75 percent, signaling confidence in economic growth and a stabilizing labor market after three rate cuts late last year. The language shift mattered. The Fed removed references to rising employment risks and emphasized that rates are now near neutral. Chair Jerome Powell stressed that future decisions will be data-driven, not political.

That reassurance comes amid extraordinary pressure. The Justice Department is investigating matters related to the Fed, the Supreme Court is weighing a case on presidential authority over the institution, and Donald Trump is nearing a decision on who he will nominate to succeed Powell. Two Trump-appointed governors dissented, favoring a quarter-point cut. Through it all, Powell insisted the Fed’s independence remains intact. Whether markets believe that as the political scrutiny intensifies is the question that now hangs over monetary policy.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:58 - Bill Scher on a Potential Gov Shutdown and Dem Primaries

00:43:47 - Update

00:44:18 - Democrat Demands for DHS

00:46:17 - Fulton County FBI Investigation

00:47:51 - Fed Rate Holds

00:49:13 - Chris Cillizza on CBS News, Washington Post, and Modern Media

01:41:01 - Wrap-up

The killing of Alex Pretti is different from the earlier death of Renee Good in ways that matter politically and institutionally. The video is clearer, the optics are harsher, and the official response has been far less defensible. In this case, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem immediately claimed Pretti brandished a weapon and intended to inflict maximum harm on officers. There is no evidence to support that claim, and there likely never will be. What should have been a period of restraint and investigation instead became a rush to narrative control.

That choice carries consequences. Law enforcement credibility depends on patience and precision, not speed. When leadership declares conclusions before facts are established, it erodes trust not just among critics, but among potential allies. The Minneapolis footage has already become iconography, a moment that redefines how many Americans understand immigration enforcement. This will not fade quickly, and it will not be compartmentalized to one incident.

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The DHS Civil War Comes Into the Open

What made this whole scene unavoidable is that it landed directly on top of an internal power struggle that has been building for months inside the Department of Homeland Security. On one side are Stephen Miller, Corey Lewandowski, and Kristi Noem, who favor aggressive, street level enforcement driven by visible numbers. On the other is Tom Homan, a hardliner himself, but one who believes deportations at scale require discipline, prioritization, and some measure of public legitimacy.

The Minneapolis shooting detonated that fault line. Noem’s public statements effectively forced the White House to intervene. Donald Trump responded by dispatching Homan to Minneapolis and opening direct communication with Governor Tim Walz and Mayor Jacob Frey. That is not a coincidence. It is a signal that the White House understands the damage being done and is trying to reassert control through a figure it trusts to stabilize the situation. Whether that effort succeeds depends on whether optics or operations ultimately win inside DHS.

Organized Resistance and Local Political Reality

Another element that cannot be ignored is the sophistication of the protests themselves. Groups like ICE Watch were not reacting spontaneously. They were coordinating through encrypted messaging, dividing the city by districts, assigning roles, and establishing rules of engagement. That level of organization changes the risk environment for officers and protesters alike. Obstructing federal officers is a felony, regardless of intent, and these encounters were always going to escalate under those conditions.

At the same time, Walz and Frey face their own political bind. Cooperating too closely with federal authorities risks backlash from highly motivated activist groups that have demonstrated an ability to mobilize quickly and aggressively. That tension leaves local leaders squeezed between federal pressure and domestic unrest, a dynamic that makes clean resolutions unlikely.

Congress, ICE Funding, and the Shutdown Clock

The legislative consequences are now unavoidable. Senate Democrats are openly stating they cannot support funding bills that continue to finance ICE in its current form. House Republicans moved spending bills forward before the storm, but Senate leadership did not act in time. As of now, a government shutdown by the end of the week looks more likely than not.

What makes this moment especially dangerous is that it did not need to escalate this far. With slower messaging, tighter discipline, and less performative leadership, DHS could have contained the damage. Instead, a tragic death has become a defining symbol, one that will stick to this administration through the midterms and beyond. This is the kind of image that reshapes political reality, not for a cycle, but for a generation.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:40 - Minneapolis

00:23:23 - Update

00:24:15 - Trump’s Visit to Iowa

00:26:08 - UK Conservatives

00:27:24 - Vindman Runs for Senate

00:31:41 - Evan Scrimshaw on Canada, Carney, and the Midterms

01:04:40 - Steelers Talk

01:21:46 - Wrap-up

I went back and watched Donald Trump’s speech at Davos after the reaction to it spiraled into calls for the 25th Amendment. Having seen it in full, I have to say, that response struck me as pretty overstated. The speech was odd, repetitive, and occasionally sloppy, but it was also entirely familiar. Trump no longer has multiple registers. He speaks the same way at Davos that he does in Greensboro, North Carolina. Rally Trump is the only Trump left.

Yes, he mixed up Greenland and Iceland, and that matters if you believe he is on the brink of ordering military action. But once the Greenland panic subsided and the White House quietly declared the issue settled, the speech reads less like evidence of incapacity and more like evidence of stagnation. Trump told the same tariff stories, did the same accents, and framed global politics through the same lens of personal deal making. That consistency may be unnerving, but it is not new. If anything, the Davos speech underscored how little adaptation Trump feels he needs to make, even on the world stage.

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DHS Infighting and the Immigration Power Struggle

The most revealing domestic story was the open tension inside the Department of Homeland Security. Reporting that Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski are trying to force out CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott is not just palace intrigue. It exposes a deeper divide between political operatives and career enforcement officials.

On one side are Stephen Miller’s allies, filtering through Noem and Lewandowski, pushing for maximal optics and aggressive deportation numbers. On the other are figures like Tom Homan and Rodney Scott, who argue that certain tactics erode public trust and make enforcement harder, not easier. Homan’s recent media blitz reflects that anxiety. He keeps stressing that deportations are happening, that priorities exist, and that blue state resistance is the real bottleneck. When enforcement professionals feel compelled to publicly justify their competence, it usually means politics has begun to overwhelm operations.

Congress Moves, Barely, and Voters Notice

On Capitol Hill, the House narrowly passed funding for the Department of Homeland Security, overcoming Democratic opposition tied to immigration enforcement concerns. It was not a clean win. Only seven Democrats supported the bill, and the compromises focused on oversight rather than substantive limits on ICE. Still, the broader takeaway is that Congress is moving more bills than expected for late January, even as shutdown deadlines loom.

At the same time, new polling suggests Democrats are regaining momentum. An Emerson College survey shows Democrats leading Republicans by six points on the generic congressional ballot, alongside Trump’s approval sitting well underwater. Six points is not a wave by itself, but it is the range where wave watching becomes justified. Voters are signaling frustration on affordability and foreign policy, and that dissatisfaction is beginning to register in the numbers. If that margin holds or grows, Republicans will not be able to dismiss it as noise.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:23 - Davos

00:16:05 - Ryan McBeth on Venezuela

00:43:29 - Update

00:43:58 - DHS Infighting

00:47:18 - DHS Funding

00:48:28 - Midterms Polling

00:50:13 - Ryan McBeth on Iran

01:06:19 - Ryan McBeth on Russia-Ukraine

01:14:44 - Wrap-up

The Greenland situation continues to look more theatrical than existential. To me, leaked private messages from Emmanuel Macron, public frustration from Donald Trump, and hurried diplomatic calls ahead of Davos all point to the same conclusion: this is pressure politics playing out in real time. Trump’s irritation appears rooted less in Greenland itself and more in confusion over European military commitments and mixed signals from allies. That kind of misunderstanding is combustible, but it is also solvable, especially when everyone involved is about to be in the same conference rooms in Switzerland.

Europe’s response, though, has been pretty revealing. Ursula von der Leyen’s declaration that the “old order is dead” was less a threat than a signal of insecurity. Europe wants leverage, and hinting at closer ties with China is one way to gesture at it. My priors remain that this all de-escalates quietly. The United States and Europe trade too much, rely on each other too deeply, and share too many strategic interests for this to spiral beyond bruised egos and tough talk. The laws of economics tend to win these fights.

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Immigration Enforcement and the Internal Split

Back at home, the most interesting fight is not between parties, but within the Trump administration itself. Tom Homan publicly arguing for better messaging around ICE operations is a tell. He understands that enforcement without a moral argument collapses under public scrutiny. His claim that roughly 70 percent of those arrested are criminals is clearly meant to counter the perception that ICE is acting indiscriminately, especially after the fatal shooting of Renee Good in Minneapolis.

What stands out is who is not making that case. Kristi Noem, who has leaned heavily into the aesthetics of enforcement, has ceded the substance to Homan, and that imbalance matters. When enforcement becomes spectacle, it invites backlash. When it is framed as governance, it can sustain itself politically. The friction between Homan and Noem is, to me, the most important palace intrigue to watch in Trump’s second term.

Britain, Chagos, and Playing to the Future

Speaking of our relationship with Europe, Trump’s sharp criticism of the United Kingdom over the Chagos Islands is best understood through a political lens, not a strategic one. The deal to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius while leasing Diego Garcia back for 99 years is not new, nor was it opposed by Washington initially. Trump’s reversal feels less about the base itself and more about aligning with figures like Nigel Farage, who benefit from confrontation with current European leadership.

This is Trump playing a long game with the people he thinks will be in power next, not the ones currently holding office. Whether that gamble pays off is unclear, but it explains why a relatively obscure British territorial issue suddenly became Truth Social fodder. It is coalition maintenance, not military planning.

Netflix, Warner Bros., and the End of Cable Gravity

Finally, Netflix’s revised all-cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery does a great job highlighting just how badly legacy media wants scale — and how selectively Netflix wants assets. Netflix does not care about cable networks. It wants intellectual property: Batman, Harry Potter, Game of Thrones. Paramount, by contrast, wants the whole thing in order to fight back against Netflix, and is willing to fight in court to get it.

Hovering over all of this is CNN, which Netflix has no interest in owning and Paramount views as distressed but strategically important. Trump’s recent reposts criticizing Netflix’s cultural dominance suggest he may no longer stay neutral, which adds another unpredictable variable. This fight is not just about entertainment. It is about who controls narrative power in a post-cable world.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:47 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Republicans, Greenland, and Trump

00:32:59 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Democratic Midterm Primaries

00:49:20 - Justin and Kirk Bado on Josh Shapiro and 2028

00:59:51 - Steelers Talk

01:13:25 - Update

01:13:48 - Immigration

01:16:30 - Chagos Islands

01:21:16 - Netflix, Paramount, and Warner Bros.

01:25:06 - Interview with Juliegrace Brufke on Congressional Vibes

01:58:28 - Wrap-up

The resignation of Madison Sheahan, an ICE deputy director to run for Congress might look like a routine political move, but it says more about the internal state of immigration enforcement than any press release. ICE is increasingly being pulled between two competing instincts: governing and performing. Tom Homan represents the former, focused on operational reality and risk management. Kristi Noem represents the latter, treating enforcement as a political identity meant to generate headlines and loyalty. Those approaches are not compatible, and when senior officials start eyeing exits into electoral politics, it usually means the institution itself is under strain.

On Capitol Hill, leadership is once again trying to stitch together a spending package just robust enough to avoid a shutdown. Progress exists, but only in the narrowest technical sense. Most discretionary funding is unresolved, and Homeland Security remains the pressure point. That is intentional. Immigration funding is leverage, and no one wants to give it up before extracting political value. The result is a familiar pattern: public urgency, private hesitation, and a quiet hope that the consequences land after the next recess.

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Meanwhile, a bipartisan proposal to create a strategic reserve of critical minerals is moving forward with little fanfare. It should be getting more attention than it is. Reducing reliance on China for rare earths and other key materials is not a culture war issue. It is basic national security planning. In a Congress addicted to short-term fights, this stood out as an example of lawmakers thinking beyond the next headline or election cycle.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:56 - Interview with Anna Gorisch

00:27:17 - Update

00:28:16 - Senate Spending Package

00:29:27 - Madison Sheahan Resignation

00:32:20 - Mineral Reserve

00:33:27 - Interview with Anna Gorisch, con’t

01:13:44 - Wrap-up

The week began with a borderline farcical incident in Greenland, where organizers of a traditional dog sled race condemned what they viewed as inappropriate political pressure after an invitation was extended to a U.S. political figure linked to Donald Trump’s ambitions toward the island. The Trump administration has clearly dialed back its more provocative rhetoric on Greenland, moving away from loose talk of force and toward a framing rooted in NATO security and Arctic competition with China and Russia. That shift is necessary, but it is not sufficient.

If the United States wants Greenland aligned with its sphere of influence, cultural buy in matters. Right now, we are losing that battle. From my admittedly tongue in cheek but sincere proposals involving sports exchanges, Arctic games with Alaska, and even Hollywood soft power, the point remains serious. You cannot strong arm affinity. You have to earn it. Greenland’s resistance to even symbolic American political presence should be a warning sign, not a punchline.

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Iran, Unrest, and Trump’s Misdirection Doctrine

Iran is far harder to read. The internet blackout, scattered video, and wildly varying casualty estimates make certainty impossible. I do not trust low numbers, nor do I trust high numbers. I do not trust most of the footage. Historically, when Iran shuts off the internet, it precedes violent crackdowns, so it would not surprise me if protesters are being killed. But the fog is thick, and anyone claiming clarity is overselling it.

What does feel clearer is the Trump administration’s evolving playbook on foreign intervention. We have now seen a pattern where public messaging intentionally misleads the press ahead of decisive action. It happened before strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. It happened with Venezuela. Loud uncertainty followed by sudden execution. With Trump publicly encouraging Iranian protesters while factions inside his administration urge restraint, the real question is not whether something happens, but what form it takes. Cyber operations, targeted strikes, covert assistance, or none of the above. The only safe assumption is that the public story may be the opposite of the private plan.

Venezuela, Powell, and the Cost of Weaponized Institutions

Venezuela remains the clearest example of this strategy in action. The removal of Nicolás Maduro and his arrival in New York did not follow months of public drumbeats. It followed confusion. That pattern now shadows Iran as well. But the episode did not stay overseas. It came home with the Justice Department’s move against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The subpoena and threatened indictment over cost overruns at Fed headquarters are politically radioactive. Even Republicans who agree the renovation was excessive argue this never should have been criminal. Scott Bessent’s reported anger reflects a broader concern inside the administration. Undermining the Fed’s independence while simultaneously pressuring it to cut rates is self defeating. Inflation data this week was not disastrous. Absent this DOJ fight, the headline might have been cautious optimism about future cuts. Instead, the story became institutional overreach and internal dysfunction.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:15 - Greenland

00:17:16 - Update

00:18:05 - Iran

00:24:51 - Jerome Powell

00:29:25 - Inflation

00:31:36 - Interview with Al Brushwood

01:06:21 - Wrap-up

The most consequential story remains Iran, where protests appear to be growing despite the regime shutting down the internet, a move that historically precedes lethal force. The scale of the demonstrations is difficult to verify, but the videos that do emerge suggest a population no longer content to absorb repression quietly. It is hard to separate this moment from the cascading effects of October 7, the regional dismantling of Hamas and Hezbollah, the fall of Syria, and the degradation of Iran’s military capacity. Whether this becomes a true regime crisis is unknown, but it is unquestionably the most important story in the world right now.

A Fatal ICE Encounter and a Nation Watching the Same Video Differently

Domestically, the killing of a 37 year old mother during an ICE operation in Minnesota has become a political Rorschach test. She was ordered out of her car, did not comply, put the vehicle in motion, and was shot by an ICE officer. Federal authorities have shut down any investigation, with Vice President J.D. Vance asserting absolute immunity. What is striking is not just the tragedy itself, but how confidently people draw opposite conclusions from the same footage. To Republicans, this is law enforcement under siege. To Democrats, it is evidence of authoritarian overreach. The incident hardens beliefs rather than persuading anyone new, which is precisely why it is politically potent.

Texas Democrats and a Brutal Primary Reality

The Texas Senate race continues to clarify in uncomfortable ways for Democrats. Reporting suggests Republican maneuvering helped nudge Jasmine Crockett into the race, and the stylistic contrast with James Talarico could not be sharper. Crockett is relentless and confrontational. Talarico’s first ad, by contrast, feels staged and overly polite. In a Texas Democratic primary, that is a problem. Style matters, and beating Crockett will require more than reasonableness. It will require a moment, a line, or a conflict that reframes the race entirely.

Affordability, Power, and Trump Unfiltered

Donald Trump’s affordability push continued with a pledge to direct the purchase of mortgage bonds to drive down rates, paired with earlier proposals to restrict large institutional buyers from the housing market. Whether these ideas work is secondary to the political intent. Trump wants to be seen doing something on costs. His two hour interview with The New York Times reinforced that worldview. He openly dismissed international law as a constraint, embraced coercive diplomacy, and framed power as its own justification. It was Trump without the volume turned all the way up, which may be the most revealing version of him.

Chapters:

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:50 - Iran

00:04:20 - ICE

f00:11:59 - Texas Races

00:16:11 - Interview with Reese Gorman

00:52:23 - Update

00:52:46 - Mortgages

00:54:34 - Trump’s NYT Interview

00:56:54 - Tariffs

00:59:00 - Interview with Stella Tsantekidou

01:32:50 - Wrap-up

Maduro in Manhattan and the Legal Test Ahead

Former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, pleaded not guilty this week in federal court in Manhattan to sweeping charges that include narco terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses. Maduro, who was captured by U.S. forces in Caracas, declared himself innocent and insisted he remains Venezuela’s legitimate president, framing his arrest as a kidnapping rather than a lawful apprehension. The arraignment itself was brief, with the next hearing scheduled for March. His legal team is already signaling a two-pronged defense focused on sovereign immunity and the circumstances of his capture.

What stands out to me is the venue. Trying this case in New York rather than Florida suggests prosecutors are being cautious about jury composition and procedural challenges. Whether that caution pays off is an open question. This case is going to test not only the strength of the evidence, but also how far U.S. courts are willing to go in asserting jurisdiction over a former head of state seized abroad. However it ends, it will be watched closely far beyond Venezuela.

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A Security Scare at the Vice President’s Home

A far quieter story, but a troubling one, emerged out of Cincinnati. A 26-year-old man was arrested after allegedly attempting to break into Vice President J.D. Vance’s home, smashing windows with a hammer, damaging a Secret Service vehicle, and trying to gain entry. Vance and his family were not home at the time, and law enforcement responded quickly. The suspect now faces multiple charges, including vandalism and criminal trespass.

These incidents rarely become more than brief news items, but they raise uncomfortable questions. The volume of unstable individuals the Secret Service has to manage is staggering, and this case highlights how thin the margins can be. It does not appear the suspect would have gotten as close if the vice president were present, but the fact that he got close at all is worth taking seriously. Political violence does not always announce itself loudly.

Klobuchar, Walz, and the Next Democratic Shuffle

Finally, after conversations I referenced earlier with Kirk, reporting now strongly suggests that Senator Amy Klobuchar is preparing to run for governor of Minnesota. According to local reporting, discussions with Tim Walz took place before his announcement, and Klobuchar would enter the race as the clear front runner. The timing is curious. She was reelected to the Senate not long ago, but this move starts to make sense if leadership changes are coming at the top of the Democratic Senate caucus and she is looking to avoid future internal battles.

The Minnesota angle also intersects with renewed scrutiny around the massive fraud scandal tied to Somali focused nonprofits. Reporting by Armin Rosen argues there is no evidence that Walz orchestrated or financially benefited from the fraud, though he may have been, in Rosen’s words, suspiciously incurious. If Klobuchar is indeed running, she gets executive experience, a relatively clean pivot point, and a chance to step sideways rather than down. In a party bracing for internal realignment, that kind of move feels increasingly rational.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:34 - Interview with Kirk Bado

00:28:41 - Justin and Kirk Talk Steelers

00:49:22 - Update

00:52:00 - Venezuela

00:53:13 - JD Vance

00:54:27 - Amy Klobuchar

00:58:04 - Interview with Andrew Zarian

01:55:42 - Wrap-up