Trump says he’ll give every American $5,000 if Republicans retain the House and Senate. That’s about $1.3 trillion, and the country is already $40 trillion in the hole. Is it a bribe? No — well, yes. Is it a political bribe? It’s unconventional, but I have a hard time separating it from politicians promising government services and warning that those services will disappear if you vote for the other party. The more important point is that even if Republicans keep Congress, this ain’t happening. There’s no political will for it, and I highly doubt the votes exist.

So why are we talking about it? Because Trump would rather have a conversation about whether a $1.3 trillion gift is feasible than talk about $4 gas, high diesel prices, inflation, or the state of the economy. Promising $5,000 reframes him as somebody who understands that people need cash. After a brief improvement in economic sentiment, things look dour again, and Trump now says the Iran war will end shortly after the midterms. Even through his rose-colored glasses that sometimes turn BS brown, he’s admitting this won’t be over before November.

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Republicans are heading into a massive fight. New polling has Sherrod Brown in Ohio and James Talarico in Texas ahead by four or five points, while Lindsey Graham’s sister leads by only two in South Carolina. I’d still bet on Ken Paxton over Talarico, but Talarico is moving toward the center. He says he opposes trans athletes competing where fairness and safety are at stake and would sign a law banning sex changes for minors. Not long ago, that would’ve been called an attack on trans children. Now a more liberal candidate is saying it because he believes the issue is an exhaust port on his Death Star. I’m ending this week more inclined toward My Blue Heaven than I was on Labor Day.

The White House is also promising $500 rebates to roughly one million Obamacare customers in 30 states who were allegedly overcharged. That’s separate from Trump’s $5,000 promise, and neither announcement means money has reached anybody. This looks like an answer to Democrats’ warnings about the expiration of Obamacare subsidies — one of the issues that drove the earlier government shutdown. Is it really going to happen? I have no idea. But it puts the administration where it wants to be: talking about what it’ll do for voters who are hurting for money.

Meanwhile, the Supreme Court has interrupted Republicans’ effort to use a new congressional map in Missouri, clearing the way for the older map approved by the state Supreme Court. Republicans wanted one more House seat from the redraw, but election officials need usable instructions before ballots go out. The broader redistricting push was hot and heavy a few months ago, but it was also slapdash. That’s the Trump administration: Somebody has an idea, everybody says it’s great, they start doing it, and they figure out whether it’s possible about halfway through.

John Fetterman also appeared by recorded video at the Republican midterm convention to introduce fellow Pennsylvania senator Dave McCormick. Fetterman called himself a Democrat, praised McCormick, and discussed working with Trump to protect steel jobs. If you think that means he’s switching parties, he poured cold water on it. He remains a proud Democrat and says he votes with the party 80 to 90 percent of the time. But imagine Democrats reach 50 Senate seats and Fetterman becomes vote 51. I’d love to ask Abdul El-Sayed which he’d prefer: a Democratic majority that depends on Fetterman, or Fetterman revealing his “true colors” and becoming a Republican.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:11 - Trump’s $5,000 Promise

00:06:30 - Polling

00:09:42 - Interview with Katherine Dee

00:31:29 - Trump’s $500 Refunds

00:33:09 - Supreme Court

00:34:29 - John Fetterman

00:36:29 - Interview with Katherine Dee, con’t

00:58:42 - Wrap-up

I’m in Atlanta for Dragon Con, and normally that would give me a chance to see what the campaigns are putting on television. But I don’t expect to see many political ads while I’m in the Peach State, because Georgia’s Senate race wasn’t supposed to look like this. It was supposed to be Brian Kemp against Jon Ossoff — a heavyweight fight if there ever was one. But Kemp didn’t run; Mike Collins won the Republican primary, and plenty of Georgia Republicans really, really hate him. Ossoff has made himself more palatable and taken enough tough votes to argue that he’ll side with Georgia when his party doesn’t. I’ve been an Ossoff skeptic, but right now you can’t argue with it. I think this race is a wrap.

Republicans have two exceptionally weak Senate challengers in states where they should perform well: Collins in Georgia and Michael Whatley in North Carolina. I’ll eat the L on Whatley because I thought he’d do better. I expected the environment to be bad for Republicans, but we’ve reached the point where nobody not named Donald Trump feels comfortable telling voters how awesome everything is. Trump’s secret is that you always say it’s awesome. Sometimes people believe you, sometimes they don’t, but you can’t have a parade unless somebody leads it. In Georgia, I think this race is wrapped. Ossoff will remain a senator.

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Meanwhile, a federal judge has blocked Trump’s latest attempt to narrow birthright citizenship. The revised order targeted alleged birth tourism, certain foreign-government employees, and people designated as alien enemies, but Judge Deborah Boardman said those categories barely resembled the exceptions previously recognized by the Supreme Court and found the order almost certainly unconstitutional. This is the Trump 2.0 philosophy: Get shots up. Push, push, push. Make judges knock it down, take it to the Supreme Court, and make the justices rule.

I’ve tried to interrogate why I don’t get as angry or worried about every one of these moves as other people do. Part of it is that there are so many of them, and I need to see how they rattle around before developing an emotional opinion. I’m willing to accept the criticism that I’m whistling while Rome burns, or while an arsonist fiddles with a matchbook. But the alternative is becoming a herky-jerky psychopath whose emotions are entirely controlled by the Trump administration. They decide when you’re mad, sad, or happy because everything depends on their latest action. I don’t want that, either.

Finally, Hakeem Jeffries also got another preview of life with a narrow Democratic majority after Jared Golden and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez rescued a Republican procedural vote without warning him. Jeffries and Democratic leaders called it a serious breach of trust and sent the matter to a caucus committee, triggering backlash from progressives and centrists worried about uneven punishment and loyalty rules. If Democrats win a WINO majority — fewer than 15 seats — this will be Jeffries’ life. Be careful what you wish for, Speaker Jeffries.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:45 - Georgia

00:06:27 - Midterms with Bill Scher

00:32:07 - Update

00:34:33 - House of Representatives

00:36:06 - Birthright Citizenship

00:39:18 - Hakeem Jeffries

00:40:46 - Midterms with Bill Scher, con’t

01:03:44 - Wrap-up

Trump’s threat to ban Bombardier aircraft sales has put Kansas Republicans in a bind. Senators Jerry Moran and Roger Marshall contacted the administration because the Canadian company supports American jobs, including more than 1,000 at its Wichita headquarters. Marshall is defending those jobs while still endorsing Trump’s goal of bringing more manufacturing home. That’s the political tension: A trade fight sold as protecting American workers is now threatening American workers who are already here.

A deal with Canada was allegedly close before it fell apart at the eleventh hour. Neither country really wants this. They both want to talk tough, and Donald Trump is definitely throwing his weight around, while Mark Carney is trying to squeeze as much political juice as possible out of standing up to him. But the Quebec by-election has come and gone, and there’s still no agreement. You’ve got to wonder how long this can continue.

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Carney is also making a more credible threat of moving Canada closer to China. At the end of the day, there aren’t really middle powers operating in independent silos. You’ve got to stand next to one of the big players, and Carney is smart enough to understand that. He needs to show Canada has another path that the United States doesn’t want, because otherwise Canada is effectively an American vassal state. Put aside what’s right or good — that’s the reality. I still suspect this gets resolved, but that’s just me.

Meanwhile, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker is launching a political action committee that plans to invest at least $20 million in Democratic House races, including overlooked Republican-held districts in Ohio and Texas. The obvious question is how much helping other Democrats helps Pritzker, who is very much rumored to be considering a presidential run in 2028. His greatest advantage is money, and he’ll need to start making friends. But Democrats traditionally like their billionaires to keep cutting checks rather than seeking power themselves. Ask Tom Steyer or Michael Bloomberg how that works out.

The first two disclosed targets are Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District and Brandon Herrera in Texas’ 23rd. Both seats are held by Republicans, and both campaigns give Pritzker a chance to demonstrate that he can expand the map. It’ll be interesting to see who else receives help and whether those candidates remember it later. Pritzker isn’t wet behind the ears — he’s already a governor — but spending money on other Democrats and converting that spending into national support are two different things.

Finally, Saudi Arabia says Houthi attacks have wounded 73 civilians and caused fires and temporary shutdowns at energy facilities. Iran is trying to create another edge that could force the United States toward negotiations on more favorable terms. Its inability to stop oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz has weakened its leverage, so we’re seeing more tough talk and more activity from the network of resistance. But the Houthis exist in a parallel world and aren’t completely beholden to Tehran. How loyal are any of Iran’s proxies to an Iran that’s increasingly broke? I don’t know what to make of it yet.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:05:15 - Chris Cillizza on the Midterms and Beyond

00:37:37 - Update

00:39:23 - Trade War

00:43:25 - Pritzker

00:46:08 - Iran

00:48:27 - Chris Cillizza’s Midterm Prediction

01:08:51 - Wrap-up

The midterms will definitively fall into one of three scenarios. Republicans began this Congress with a 220–215 House majority and hold the Senate 53–47. The environment is brutal for them: Trump’s approval is at 33 percent, 70 percent disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, and the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot is getting close to eight points. But Republicans have a big money advantage, and the Senate map still requires almost everything to go right for Democrats.

Scenario one is Ah, Nevertheless: Republicans retain both the House and Senate. They can lose two House seats and still hold 218, and a few candidate-specific wins, redrawn districts, or polling errors could get them there. The Senate is already a hard climb for Democrats, and all Trump has done his entire career is surprise people. But pretty much everything argues against this. The president’s party usually loses seats in the midterms, Trump’s approval and cost-of-living numbers stink on ice, and the battlefield is expanding into Republican territory. If the GOP holds both chambers, the story won’t be that Trump beat the odds. It’ll be that he is the odds. You don’t bet against Big Donny T.

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Scenario two is WINO — Win in Name Only: Democrats win the House by fewer than 10 seats while Republicans retain the Senate. This is, in my view, the most likely scenario as of August. Democrats get Speaker Hakeem Jeffries, control of the legislative agenda, committee gavels, subpoena power, and the ability to impeach by a simple majority. But with a tiny margin, every ideological bloc becomes a potential veto point. A handful of members could threaten Jeffries’ speakership or stop legislation, and impeachment would be ceremonial without the Senate. Republicans keep the brake pedal while their senators become less Trump-aligned as his duck gets lamer. Democrats win the gavel, Republicans keep the brake pedal, and Jeffries ultimately pays the bill.

Scenario three is My Blue Heaven: Democrats win the House by more than 10 seats and take the Senate, giving them at least 223 House seats and 51 Democratic-aligned senators. Trump’s approval would need to remain in the low-to-mid-30s, affordability would need to dominate, and Democratic enthusiasm would have to survive the transition from the primaries to November. Progressives and the establishment would need to mend their fences and say, “Onward, onward, onward.” The Senate table would have to be almost entirely clean, including pickups in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine, plus a Michigan hold with Abdul El-Sayed.

Ah, Nevertheless would mean Trump wriggled out of it yet again and avoided impeachment. WINO would produce a loud, hectic Democratic House that can investigate and pass bills but can’t get much through the Senate. My Blue Heaven would give Democrats control of both chambers, allowing them to send legislation to Trump, multiply the investigations, and begin asking whether they have the votes to eliminate the filibuster.

Those are the three paths in front of us: Republicans hold, the parties split power narrowly, or Democrats get their deliverance. It’s a multi-versal ride that will only get clearer as we approach November.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:19 - Midterms Scenarios Revealed

00:23:35 - Bernie Endorses Angie Nixon

00:27:43 - National Debt

00:31:01 - Iran

00:35:16 - Kirk Bado on the Midterms

01:06:41 - Wrap-up

I’ve got a bad feeling about the South Carolina runoff for Darlene Graham. Lindsey Graham’s sister led the first round with roughly 32 percent but now faces Representative Ralph Norman. Trump encouraged her to run, endorsed her before she formally entered, campaigned with her in Myrtle Beach, and held a runoff-eve tele-rally. MAGA Inc. spent $827,000 on last-day calls and texts supporting her. Norman is a longtime officeholder with a hardline conservative record who backed Trump but committed the unforgivable sin of endorsing Nikki Haley in 2024.

The problem is that Darlene has run an objectively bad campaign, even though the campaign she needed wasn’t difficult. Make it all about Lindsey. South Carolina Republicans had already chosen him, and nobody knew him like his sister. She could’ve presented herself as a caretaker working with his staff to finish the agenda he spent his life building. Every sentence should’ve begun or ended with “Lindsey told me” or “This is what Lindsey would’ve wanted.” Erase the Darlene.

Instead, she’s tried to establish the Darlene show. She’s drawn distinctions between Lindsey’s foreign-policy focus and her domestic priorities, but if she’s going to be anything other than Lindsey’s caretaker, voters don’t know her. That choice also makes every piece of her own record fair game. Then she delivered one of the biggest gaffes of the midterms when Greta Van Susteren gave her a question about China and she absolutely gagged on it. You’ve got to know “China bad.” It’s a two-word answer. She hasn’t done good; she’s done bad.

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This is also a low, low, low, low, low-turnout runoff. Dozens of people are going to vote, and the people who show up in elections like this are usually the most energized. The most energized South Carolina Republicans aren’t necessarily Lindsey Graham voters. Many of them are the people who hated Lindsey Graham and wanted a more purebred MAGA senator. Darlene has the Graham name, but the name was already controversial within the party. Her hedge is Trump. The question is whether Trump can still get those voters out.

Trump’s average approval is 39.5 percent, with 57.2 percent disapproving. Stinky, bad, awful. If you’re in the low 40s, it’s bad. If you’re in the high 30s, it’s terrible. Darlene says she’s focused on domestic policy, the economy, and kitchen-table issues, but Trump’s economic numbers are even worse: 35.9 percent approve and 60.9 percent disapprove. That’s a 25-point spread. Donald Trump has been the wind beneath her wings, but I don’t know what kind of draft that endorsement creates anymore, even in deep-red South Carolina.

MAGA Inc. has $404 million on hand but spent only $2.3 million through July before dumping nearly $1 million into this runoff at the last minute. A huge cash advantage works best when you define people early, not when you wait until the final days. The energy and the issues are with Democrats, while two supposed Republican advantages — money and redistricting — don’t look like advantages right now. If Trump’s endorsement and a last-minute MAGA Inc. spending spree can’t save Lindsey Graham’s sister in South Carolina, that’s a bad sign for Republicans far beyond this runoff.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:17 - College Sports Bill

00:08:01 - Darlene Graham

00:25:20 - Canada

00:30:45 - Iran

00:34:18 - Mail-in Voting

00:37:57 - Interview with Eric Geller

01:09:00 - Wrap-up

The Iran war has reached the six-month mark, far beyond the quick victory Trump once promised. Pakistan says it’s still working on diplomacy to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump says he has no timetable for ending the conflict and insists the United States is winning. The big story is that there now appears to be free passage through the American-controlled corridor off Oman’s coast. About half of the prewar oil traffic is reportedly getting through. That would represent a significant loss of Iranian leverage — but only if crude prices begin to fall.

Brent crude remains just under $90 a barrel. That’s the low end of high, not the meaningful decline we saw during the memorandum-of-understanding period. Iran is at an impasse. Regime leaders have reportedly been doxxed, people aren’t getting paid because the country can’t move oil, and there are rumors that the supreme leader may be dead. If Iran’s leverage since the revolution was “Don’t interact with us or we’ll derail the world economy and set the region on fire,” that doesn’t appear to have happened. Its proxies haven’t ignited the region, its oil isn’t moving normally, and it may now be operating without a supreme leader.

Politically, though, this has been an absolute disaster for Trump. It fractured his right flank and gave independent voters permission to say, “No, this guy sucks. He lied.” He called himself the president of peace, and now we’ve been at war with Iran for six months. Iran’s goal is to make Trump pay in the midterms, and Trump is doing a lot to help. He doesn’t have tremendous instincts for winning races when he isn’t on the ballot.

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The administration may be looking to Venezuela for relief. It’s negotiating with the interim government for American ownership stakes in more than a dozen productive oil fields holding about 90 billion barrels of proven reserves. Venezuela would receive investment and additional revenue while American and other private firms rebuilt production. Is this energy security or an extraordinary American claim on another country’s resources? To quote the Stephen A. Smith meme: We don’t care. At least not when it comes to the one thing that matters in American politics — gas prices.

So go gas prices, so goes the economy, inflation, and probably the midterms. Trump’s original pitch was that tariffs might create instability and make foreign goods more expensive, but Americans could count on cheaper energy. A funny thing happened on the way to Tehran, and that got screwed up. More Venezuelan oil could push prices down and make it easier to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve without buying expensive crude. It would also almost certainly benefit the oil companies that remain furious about Hugo Chávez taking their equipment.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:14 - Trade War with Canada

00:34:44 - Update

00:36:49 - Iran

00:42:19 - Venezuelan Oil

00:45:13 - 9/11 Trial

00:47:25 - Evan Scrimshaw’s Midterm Picks

01:25:03 - NFL

01:48:34 - Wrap-up

House Republicans just returned from five weeks in their districts, and there’s already a rumor that they’re about to pull an “Abe Simpson” — walk into Washington, turn around, and leave again. They’ll vote on a Senate-approved stopgap funding bill to keep the government open through December, probably with Democratic support, and pass a few messaging bills about how they don’t like socialism. Beyond that, expectations are low. They want to leave until November 9, after the midterms.

The reasoning is simple: If they’re not going to accomplish anything in this divided, fractious Congress, why stay? Republicans have such a thin majority that they can’t agree on much or put Democrats on defense beyond the broadest, most useless bills. Their members would rather go home, campaign, press the flesh, shake hands, and kiss babies because they believe they’re fighting for their political lives.

The mood inside the Republican conference is bleak, bleak, bleak. One member holds a district Trump won by 10 points and the Republican candidate previously carried by 16. Their internal polling now has that Republican ahead by one point. Uno. These are the seats nobody treats as toss-ups until a wave turns them into toss-ups. Republicans are comparing their internal numbers in the hallways, and they don’t like what they see.

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In 2022, Republican leaders told members they’d win the House by 20 seats; they won by five. The rule of thumb for some members now is to take whatever leadership says and subtract 20. Leadership says Republicans will hold by five, so members are preparing for Democrats to win a 15-seat majority. If Trump-plus-10 districts are already looking like toss-ups, they want to be home doing everything possible to eke out a victory.

They probably won’t leave immediately. Going home would be a gigantic red flag from leadership, and fundraisers are already scheduled throughout Washington. Members might need time in their districts, but they also need money for television and streaming ads. That means showing up and giving face time to the people attending those fundraisers.

The wild card is Big Chungus. If Trump says Congress should go home, Mike Johnson will face enormous pressure to disperse everybody. If Trump says members should remain in Washington, they’ll stay. From everything I’m hearing, there isn’t much good news on the Republican side. My personal barometer between WINO and My Blue Heaven is swinging left.

Chapters

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:29 - House Republicans

00:12:53 - Update

00:14:25 - Mail-in Ballots

00:19:15 - Bonds

00:21:51 - Ballroom

00:25:46 - Interview with Riley Blanton

01:12:43 - Wrap-up