In this week's episode, our experts review the now-stale minutes from July’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s new dovishness from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, and what to look out for in the coming weeks as we near the end of a notable summer.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:30 – We highlight this week’s economic releases: the Labor Department reports that weekly unemployment claims rose slightly but remained stable over the past 18 months, and the National Association of Realtors reports that existing home sales rose by 2% in July.

03:43 – The July FOMC minutes were hawkish, and show Committee member concerns over tariff-driven inflation, elevated asset valuations, and that the current fed funds rate may not be far above neutral. The meeting pre-dated the weaker July employment report and subsequent shift in focus from inflation to the cooling jobs market.

04:52 – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell appears to pivot towards a dovish stance and emphasizing the downside risks to the labor market at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; expectations of a rate-cutting cycle beginning in September shot up and Treasury yields dropped sharply in response.

07:47 – Political turmoil continues to put pressure on the Federal Reserve on allegations of mortgage fraud against Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who has been pressured to resign or face removal by President Trump.

12:45 – We discuss the apparent bifurcation in the economy, with weakness in consumer spending offset by strength in business investment, particularly in data centers and artificial intelligence.

16:46 – We anticipate how the market might react to an upcoming earnings report from Nvidia and news that the federal government is considering taking ownership positions in tech stocks.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: How Does Key Wealth Define Quality Within Our Internally Managed Equity Strategies?

Watch: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief

Follow us on LinkedIn

This week was lighter on economic news and reporting—certainly when compared to the previous two action-packed weeks—so we’re shaking things up for this episode. Each expert brings to the table a news item that caught his eye this week, and one topic that might not be receiving enough attention. Topics include skyrocketing investment into artificial intelligence, the fractures at the Federal Reserve (see Additional Resources below for a link to past guest Cynthia Honcharenko’s take on the interesting dynamics taking place at the Fed), turmoil in the gold market, the changing demographics of the labor market amid evolving ways and means of working, and more. Wishing a happy International Beer Day and National Pickleball Day to those who celebrate; maybe not at the same time.

Speakers:

Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer

Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:23 – The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index—a measure of the health of the U.S. services sector—dipped to 50.1 in July, down from June’s 50.8.

02:42 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending August 2 were up 7,000 claims from the previous week, for a total of 226,000 initial claims.

03:32 – Investment in AI technologies exceeded $150 billion in the first half of the year, which may contribute to the increasing productivity in the workforce as measured by recent average revenue per employee figures.

05:52 – The Fed continues to fracture amid a surprise appointment of a temporary Fed governor to fill a recently-vacated seat.

07:28 – The ups and downs of Trump’s order to allow private equity investment in 401 (k) retirement plans.

08:40 – China is mentioned less in the news these days, but that doesn’t mean nothing newsworthy is happening there. Portfolio diversification through international markets is a good idea, and there’s some potential in the Chinese markets.

10:17 – A discussion on the turmoil in the gold markets on news of a 39% import tax on some gold coming into the U.S.

13:45 – With an outsized population of retirees on the horizon, and a new generation coming into the workforce with a very different jobs landscape, what’s the future of productivity?

15:02 – Diversification is the sound investment strategy for the day. We’re seeing some softness in the labor market, but most economic indicators are favorable. Still, things can be unpredictable, and a diversified portfolio can shield you from some targeted disruptions.

Additional Resources

Read: Key Questions: Cracks in the Foundation: Symbolic or Systemic? Fed Unity Frays as Policy Dissonance Grows.

Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act

Key Questions | Key Private Bank

Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief

Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we discuss eight reports and news items that are impacting the economy today, and which will likely have lingering effects into the future; these touch on the labor market in regard to unemployment and payrolls, housing, inflation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), earnings season, and – the big news of the week – what came out of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the lower than expected new non-farm payroll report. As always, we analyze these items and how they’re affecting the equity and bond markets, and what moves investors may consider making.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy
George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income

Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management

01:47 – We introduce the eight topics and reports that lay the groundwork for our discussion: weekly initial unemployment claims, job openings, existing home sales, GDP for Q2:2025, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation figures, the jobs report showing underwhelming numbers for new nonfarm payrolls, a negative revision for the May and June figures, and a slight bump in overall unemployment, the FOMC meeting, and news from the midst of earning season.

06:30 – The big items from the FOMC: rates remain unchanged, two governors voice dissent, and no firm commitment on a September rate cut. The reasoning behind the continued fed funds rate is that inflation is still elevated, the labor market is robust, unemployment remains low, and inflationary pressures persist due to trade uncertainties.

07:42 – Fed Chair Jerome Powell touched on 7 themes during the post-meeting press conference: no rate cuts, monetary policy is restrictive, pressure from tariffs, conflicting pressures between inflation and the labor market, market pricing recalibration, Fed independence in rate setting in light of government borrowing costs, and acknowledging the notable dual dissents within the FOMC meeting.

09:35 – The likelihood of a September rate cut dropped to 39% at the time of the FOMC meeting, with a fourth quarter cut more likely. The dissent from governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman seems less politically motivated than borne out of genuine care for the labor market.

12:38 – The labor market is stable but might be starting to show some cracks signaling a potential slowdown as layoffs are low but so is hiring.

17:01 – The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy, rose slightly following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, then dropped significantly today in reaction to this morning’s jobs report – the biggest such reaction since 2004. Given this volatility, expectations of a September rate cut are now increasing.

20:07 – Shifting tariffs and trade policy seem to be hitting the stock market this week, with falling copper futures as a notable example.

21:16 – The Trump administration’s recent pushback against Powell’s wait-and-see approach to rate cuts appears prescient given the market reaction to today’s lukewarm jobs report. There’s now a higher chance of a Powell resignation as a Fed governor rather than finishing out his full term, after a potential replacement as the sitting Fed Chair.

24:14 – As earnings season continues, major tech companies are showing mixed results, with Microsoft and Meta reporting favorably in contrast to lackluster reports from Amazon and Apple.

Additional Resources

Read: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” That Will Impact Businesses?

Attend: August 19: Key Wealth's National Call: Planning Implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) Act

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, we review the unemployment and home sales figures that were released this week, as well as the ongoing trade tensions and tariff negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. We also touch on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and President Trump’s visit to tour the renovations to the Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington, D.C. Lastly, we look into the performance of the stock market, including the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, a new round of corporate earnings, and the resurgence of "meme stocks."

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:47 – The initial unemployment claims report showed a decline, indicating a robust employment market. However, existing home sales fell due to higher mortgage rates.

02:35 – The European Central Bank paused its rate-cutting cycle, which could be an indirect factor in the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. President Trump also visited the Federal Reserve and spoke with Chair Jerome Powell.

03:52 – Regarding tariffs, the U.S. reached a tentative agreement with Japan to lower tariff rates, which was seen as positive news. However, the overall tariff rate remains elevated compared to the beginning of the year.

07:58 – A discussion on the resilience of the economy, with corporate earnings exceeding expectations and the labor market remaining healthy. They also noted some potential headwinds, such as policy uncertainty and the potential for market volatility as we head into autumn.

Additional Resources

Key Questions: What Are the Top 10 Provisions in the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' that Will Impact Individuals?

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn

In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims.

03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.

08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns

14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.

Additional Resources

Key Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private Bank

Books and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and Listening

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn

In this episode, our experts opine on the economy, considering three key indicators making a splash this week: unemployment claims are down, but so was the first quarter estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while inflation stayed stickier than hoped for in May. Meanwhile, bond yields moved higher, and the stock market is having a heyday, despite the dollar hitting a three-year low. We will be off next week for the July 4th holiday, and look forward to bringing you fresh insights the following week.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

02:16 – Initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 21 came in at 236,000 – 10,000 lower than the prior week – which was a welcome sign given this figure’s recent upward trajectory.

02:43 – The final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate for the first quarter of 2025 showed a 0.5% contraction, caused by an increase in imports ahead of President Trump’s insistence on widespread tariffs.

03:37 – Inflation – excluding food and energy – remained sticky in May, as the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) ticked up to 0.2% month-over-month, and 2.7% year-over-year.

05:01 – Following a run of resiliency, key economic indicators appear to be following suit with the negative sentiment that has been pervasive in the first half of 2025.

09:47 – Fed Funds futures are pricing in a modest 20% chance of a rate cut in July, but expectations of the first rate cut in September appear more solid at 90% odds.

10:22 – Bond yields moved higher in reaction to the PCE inflation data, while the U.S. dollar dipped to its lowest level in three years.

11:58 – Investment grade credit spreads remain unchanged for the week and continue to trade at a very tight range.

13:39 – The stock market is enjoying all-time highs that will likely continue into next month, furthering the trend of July being the best-performing month of the year, based on historical data.

17:56 – The 90-day pause on tariffs announced in April is set to expire on July 9, though recent news suggests this is more of a soft target than a hard deadline.

Additional Resources

What Happens If the TCJA Expires? Why It Matters Now for Your Taxes and Your Legacy

Books and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and Listening

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met this week to report on dampened economic projections, forecast two potential rate cuts in the remainder of the year, and reaffirm the wait-and-see approach that has been a hallmark of Fed policy thus far in 2025. Our experts analyze what came out of the meeting, how investors should respond, and what the future may hold. We also break down the key provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, what comes next in the Senate, and highlight four provisions that may impact you.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Cynthia Honcharenko, Director of Fixed Income Portfolio Management
Joe Velkos, National Tax Director, Key Wealth

02:12 – The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report showed a 0.9% month-over-month dip in May, and April figures were revised to a 0.1% decline.

03:12 – U.S. industrial production fell by 0.2% in May, according to the Federal Reserve.

03:54 – At this week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at a target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.

04:07 – We look at key economic projections, including a lowered GDP growth median, higher inflation projections, and increased unemployment forecasts.

05:03 – The median FOMC forecast sees two 25 basis points cuts in 2025, though there appears to be disagreement among members with some expecting no rate cuts in 2025, while others expect only a single 25 basis points cut this year.

06:10 – The markets and analysts weigh in on the probability of rate cuts this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious and confirmed the Fed is positioned to respond as needed, especially considering uncertainty around the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation.

10:45 – A discussion on who might succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve.

12:54 – Uncertainty across several fronts signals a wide range of possible outcomes in international and domestic markets and politics. For investors’ portfolios, diversification will be as important as it’s ever been.

15:14 – Joe Velkos, National Tax Director for Key Wealth, joins us to walk through the “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed by the House of Representatives on May 22.

19:07 – The bill faces opposition in the Senate, including among Republicans, making it unlikely that the bill will remain unchanged or that it will be passed before July 4th, as is President Trump’s goal.

20:18 – We highlight four key provisions of the bill: an increase to the maximum state local tax deduction, an increase to the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, restoring the bonus depreciation for business owners, and the new proposed elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay.

Additional Resources

Watch the replay of our June 11 National Call

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
Subscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletter

Weekly Investment Brief
Follow us on LinkedIn